Quote of the Week

"Someone who really wanted to know what is going on would have to dig deep to find reality: a decline in median prices just means that more cheaper homes are selling than expensive ones; the median says nothing about the fate of an individual house or neighborhood, or city." Lou Barnes, Inman News.

For instance, some news sources quote a different monthly median price than others because they calculate in the price of condos with homes for the monthly median selling price--in the majority of markets condos sell in a lower and separate niche than single family homes. To commingle them gives a different picture than when compared separately.

Where Are the Prices Going?

Per Inman News today, "Already, home prices have dipped in some markets. 'There are some cities and some states that have experienced slight price declines so far this year, but we are very far from a Great Comeuppance in which the extraordinary appreciation of the last five years is taken away,'" according to the Edward Leaver about the UCLA Anderson Forecast scheduled to be delivered today. Factoring in inflation, "the forecast calls for the market prices of homes to hold steady, which equates to a drop of about 15 percent to 20 percent in real terms because of continuing inflation. Also, the forecast calls for a lowering of the Federal Funds Rate from its current level of 5.25 percent to 4.5 percent by mid-2007."
That's a significant drop, but maybe not impossible.

A separate Anderson Forecast report, "The California Report," also does not expect a recession for the state. "We are still firmly convinced that the national economy is the primary driver at the state level: statewide home prices (in California) are unlikely to decline significantly unless there is a recession," and a recession means a significant cut in jobs, and a cut in paychecks. That's what we had in the 1990's--so do the buyers who think they're going to get a "deal" with a 30 percent or more drop in prices think it will necessarily happen in a vacuum and their paycheck will not be affected and their buying power will automatically increase? It doesn't work that way--while it will take a while for some sellers to get the message, that doesn't mean the buyers will be getting the selling price of 1999. It's best to take advantage of the lowest interest rate you can get: Interest rates impact the monthly payment more quickly than an increase or decrease in home prices.

California Median Price Up, Sales Volume Not

Fulfilling the general anticipation of a slowing increase in price appreciation, California's median home price, according to California Association of Realtors, reached an all-time high in August, 2006, of $576,360, a 1.6% increase over August, 2005. August 2006 price increased 1.7% over July, 2006. The homes are on the market 90 days or longer has quadrupled compared to last year, and sales volume has dropped 30.1% compared to last year. Home prices in specific areas however increased by as much as 46% (Ladera Ranch) compared to a year ago. Manhattan Beach has the greatest median home price ($1,850,000), with Santa Barbara, once the highest median price in the state, trailing 10th at $1,107,000. The statewide appreciation was anticipated for all of 2006 to be 5-6%.

What Is The Current Time On Market

What’s the time on the market. A quick check in our local MLS for houses in 90803 (Long Beach near the coastline and adjacent neighborhoods) shows 117 single family residences at an average active list price of $1,444,122, with 25 in escrow: That means about 4.68 months inventory on the market for houses. Some people don’t think this shows an extraordinary supply vs. demand, although it certainly provides a much better opportunity for buyers to see what’s on the market and having some time to think it over before making an offer. With 76 condos (not including lofts or own-your-owns), on the other hand, at an average price of over $581,000, there is almost a 7 month supply in the same area. Still a great buy for buyers to be near the ocean in an area where a house would be unaffordable for them. Search properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com.

Break for Borrowers

The Federal Reserve has once again left the rates alone, and "judges that some inflation risks remain." The prime lending rate remains at 8.25 percent, breaking the string of 17 rate hikes that has driven the funds rate to its highest level in more than five years. Mortgage rates have actually fallen this year from it's high of 6.8 percent on a 30-year fixed: so it's still a great time to refinance or purchase!

Change in Rates Not Expected

Investors do not expect the Federal Reserve to change rates this week, or before the end of the year. Rates could be cut eventually, but not as long as the economy shows no signs of deterioration. Still, a good time to buy. See www.juliahuntsman.com for properties on the market in the Long Beach area.

Federal Reserve May Leave Rates Alone This Week

Waning inflation may cause the Fed to leave rates alone, but investors do not expect a decrease unless the economy shows signs of deterioration.

Condo Prices Since 2005

A quick check on condominiums for zip codes 90803 and 90804 (which include the expensive shoreline areas) reveals the trend in number of sales is lower from 2005, but average (not median) price is significantly higher. From March 1 to September 1, 2005, there were, per the MLS, 216 closed escrows averaging $415,552; for the same period in 2006 there are 161 closed escrows averaging $445,535.

Your House Is A Home, Not A Tech Stock

Everywhere you read, it's all about the slowing housing market, or worse. Nobody likes to feel they bought or sold at the right time, but to make the best move you can you need to know your future plans a lot more than you need a crystal ball. Playing the wait-and-see game, as this Los Angeles Times 9/10/2006 article shows, doesn't always work out. Real estate is cyclical in nature, and if you buy and plan to stay at least five to seven years, you are more likely to be making a good investment. "But housing is not bought and sold as easily as tech stocks ... People who are rolling the dice, and not getting into real estate for the right reasons, are putting themselves at risk," says John Karevoll of Dataquick. "If you're planning on living in the property for three to five years or more, you can make a good investment today," he said. "It won't be as good as if you bought three years ago, but it will be better than if you wait until interest rates go up." So trying to time the market and sell early or wait to buy, as some people have learned, can be the wrong move for the wrong reasons. First and foremost should be an assessment of your needs, then try to match those needs with the best loan and the best house that you can get at the time.

Some Housing Update: Not All Pessimism

With the housing inventory on the market, it's not a time when buyers have to turn to FSBO's to find just the right house, contrary to the photo in the New York Times article. Buyers and sellers continue in a standoff while sellers are having to adjust to not being in total control as they have for the past few years. Though prices are basically holding, sales volume has decreased in most local zip codes, down by over 26% in 90803 compared to this time last year. Mortgage rates are still lower, while it may take the rest of the year to move the rest of this current inventory. This is definitely a good time for buyers, as they can now take adequate time to select their next home. See www.juliahuntsman.com for search for Long Beach and Orange County properties.

When Refinancing Makes Sense, to say the least

"Hell is probably pretty crowded right now, but I hope there's a special circle reserved for lenders who make low-interest, adjustable-rate mortgages without adequately explaining how they work and what their drawbacks are. And I don't mean just handing you a written form along with the mountains of other paperwork you receive when you apply for a loan. I mean talking to you about what could happen under worst-case scenarios -- until you understand your risks clearly. Low-interest, interest-only loans and so-called 'option' adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) that allow buyers to make only minimum payments evolved over the last few years to deal with the 'sticker shock' buyers felt when they saw how much home prices were ballooning every month.

Now home prices have stabilized, while rising interest rates are causing sticker shock. In fact, the non-partisan Center for Responsible Lending says 97.5% of borrowers who have teaser rates expiring on loans this year could face 'payment shocks' of at least 25%, while three-quarters could face increases of 50% or more.

Incomes can't possibly keep up with these bump-ups. According to recent government statistics, real median household income has remained almost flat -- rising only 1.1% last year, to $46,326, from the year before."
If you need refinance information or a quote, contact me at my website.