Inman News reports that the Federal Reserve's recent tone hinting at possibly no further rate increases may have changed after its June 29 statement. 10-year Treasury note rates declined, so did mortgage rates which closely follow the Treasury notes and yields on long-term government bonds. Later positive predictions of June job growth may have the effect, though, of another increase in August by the Federal Reserve, which will ultimately impact the mortgage rates. Be prepared.

I've had to reconstruct the blog. Previous links and features will be added again.

Why the Housing Boom Will Stay

Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies points out the main pillars of the housing market in its 2006 report, where downturns in the market will not outweigh the long term factors:

Several factors are at work.

Booming household growth. The nation will add 1.37 million new households this year. Part of this is natural population increase but this has also been bolstered by foreign migrants.

Graying boomers. As boomers have aged and prospered, they have begun to buy vacation or second homes in increasing numbers. This trend will widen as they near retirement.

Changing household composition. Social and cultural changes add to the number of households. There are more single-person households than in the past. Fewer adult children live with their parents; they establish their own homes. Increases in divorce rates result in the division of multi-person households into smaller ones. Family sizes have shrunk; a community may have about the same population but more households.

Minority gains. Ownership among formerly under-represented minorities has increased. Black and Latin home ownership has always trailed that of whites but the past 10 years has seen minorities making great progress.

UCLA: No Decline in Prices

This slower market is not a sign of a recession because the Southern California and national economy is strong and there is no "vulnerability" in the job market. The speculative demand got way out of hand, which drove prices up even higher, but the speculative buyer has departed the market. Speculators enter and leave the market suddenly, since they lack the emotional component about their properties that the usual residential seller has.
So the bottom line is: "We do not predict a recession, nor do we predict a substantial decline in average nominal home prices," said Ryan Ratcliff, a UCLA economist. "The forecast is based on two arguments. There is not enough vulnerability in the usual sources of employment loss to create a recession, and the historical record suggests that average home prices do not usually fall without this kind of job loss."

Federal Reserve Increases Rate

Fed raises key interest rate to 5.25% in 17th consecutive increase on fears of inflation risks. The recent increases in bank mortgage rates areprobably a reflection of this anticipated increase, following pastpatterns."Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from itsquite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual coolingof the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interestrates and energy prices," according to a committee statement."Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months," thecommittee stated. "Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise inunit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained. However,the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy andother commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures."In a related action, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimouslyapproved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 6.25 percent. See my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com.

California Median Home Price

According to California Association of Realtors, "The median price of an existing single-family home in California increased 8 percent in May and sales decreased 21.1 percent compared with the same period a year ago, C.A.R. recently reported. "This is the first time since November 2001 that the median price did not increase by double digits, reflecting the return to the more balanced market that we have anticipated," said C.A.R. President Vince Malta. "Interest rates, while still historically low, continue to impact sales as did the inventory of homes for sale, which reached nearly a six-month supply in May.

"According to the report, the median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during May 2006 was $564,430, an 8 percent increase over the revised $522,530 median for May 2005. The May 2006 median price increased 0.5 percent compared with April's revised $561,750 median price. Also in May, closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 488,260 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 21.1 percent compared with the sales pace recorded one year earlier and down 5.6 percent from home resale activity in April. "

Dataquick, on the other hand, has reported in June, 2006, and confirmed their report that May's California median home price was $469,000, "a new record"-- a mistake?
See my website and search local MLS properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com.

That First Home

Dream homes are great to dream about, but please don't expect everything without the money to match. Expectations that are too high might cause the first-time homebuyer to miss a golden opportunity. If you've been renting and don't have much equity, the smart thing to do is look into the future at the second or even third home as the one that really represents where you want to be. People believe their parents did the right thing by buying, but many people forget that their parents may have also built up the move-up over time.

Financial coast David Bach says, "... renters may need to take a step backward when buying their first home. It's almost always better to cut the renting cycle as soon as you can and to continue to upgrade from there," he said. "Buy what you can afford now, build equity, and move closer to that dream home."

With today's loan products, there is ample opportunity to get into that first property, where you realistically may not be staying for more than 3 to 5 years, so remembering that, compromising on home features may be easier to do. Read this article about the Wells Fargo buyer survey.

Southern California Home Prices Are Holding

Even though the sales rate has slowed over the last six months, Dataquick's check of the public records tells us "the median price paid for a home in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties was $485,000 last month. That was the same as April, and up 6.4 percent from $456,000 for May last year." Home appreciation is at its lowest pace within the last 6 years, however 27,282 homes were sold in May, lower than the peak May in 2002, but an increase of over 10% from April, 2006.

Compare Interest Rate Trends

If you're a buyer or a seller looking for a buyer, the graphs on various interest rates should be of interest to you. Look at the trends since 2000/2001 to the present, and the trend is easily seen. the LIBOR and 11th District COFI are used in mortgage lending, but they all reveal the same story. By looking at the tables, it's easy to see specific interest rates and specific times. What is most noticeable is the steady upward trend over 2005-2o06.

What a Rate Increase Does to Your Mortgage Payment

More mortgage rate increases are still on the horizon; don't wait if you have the opportunity to act in the near future. This time last year (see linked article) the overal 30-year fixed rate was at 5.63 percent, this time a year later, it's 6.62% with .5 point, meaning it would be a little higher if you paid no points. The difference to you the borrower on a $350,000 loan amount is over $200/month. At 5.63 percent, your monthly principal/interest payment last year was approximately $2015.90, and at 6.62 percent this year, your payment is approximately $2239.93. See my website at http://www.juliahuntsman.com for a property search on our local MLS, and more financial information.