Sales Trends and New Loan Limits in Southern California

The selling prices are on a downward slope, but so is the amount of inventory since last June. In the entire SoCalMLS area which now covers areas from Los Angeles down to San Diego (there is a push for a statewide MLS which may be happening by the end of this year), there were over 34,000 units for detached housing on the market in June, 2007, at an average list price of $815,272. The units on the market increased to over 38,000 in September and October, and by January had decreased to 32,217, and the average list price was $732,043.

The same trend shows for attached (condos, etc.) housing: Average list price of $494,000 last June decreased to $455,000 by January 3, 2008. with only about 275 additional attached units on the market compared to last June. Per California Association of Realtors, the median time on the MLS, meaning the days on market for a property before the seller received an accepted offer and went into escrow, was 8.6 weeks in 2007, compared to 1.6 weeks in 2004.

What sellers want to avoid now is "chasing the market down", today's low offer may look great in 90 days.

For buyers, the question remains, is our area market stabilizing beyond the usual seasonal dip in sales? Hopefully, that will be so, and with the Senate's approval of the economic stimulus plan yesterday, and an expected increase in conforming loan amount from $417,00 to over $700,000, some buyers who have been waiting for the right time to buy will now do so.

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Quilts of Valor, a Project for Veterans

Another Realtor in my office works diligently on Quilts of Valor, a nonprofit foundation of volunteers who make quilts to aid in the healing of our wounded vets upon their return from Iraq and Afghanistan. Due to some recent publicity (and more to come) her organization is starting to receive donations of fabric for constructing these quilts. She says, "I am asking you if you or someone you know might have a storage center, warehouse, or empty office that could be donated to us for storage and maybe even a workroom for volunteers to use to sew please contact me. Stay tuned for news about our Time Warner Cable video to be out soon as well as on CNN VOD and YouTube! This is such a needed and worthwhile cause, I hope you will also keep us in mind if your clients have cotton/flannel fabric, thread and sewing supplies or sewing machines to dispose of. We can always use more volunteers to help as well (no skills required). We also need money for postage to get the quilts delivered."

Weekly workshops are held Thursday afternoons at SewVac, 1762 Clark Ave., Long Beach, from 1-5 pm. This group has done two Make a Difference Days on Saturdays. Starting in March, there will be evening sessions in Cerritos. High school students can earn their community service hours by volunteering. They are an authorized agency for the Long Beach Unified School District to help them earn their 40 hours required for graduation, so they learn a skill and learn to give back to the community!

If any of you have work space we could consider, or materials, or an interest in this, please contact me!

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Downtown "Fun Bus" to Broadway and 4th St. Businesses

The Big Red “Fun Bus” is a free ride on Thursdays from 6 pm to Midnight and Saturdays from 1 pm to 6 pm – as a way of connecting all the cool shops and dining establishments along Broadway and 4th Street between Pine and Redondo while passengers listen to live music and enjoy special promotions offered through their website. It’s being funded by business owners on Pine through Downtown Long Beach Associates as a way of connecting their businesses in a fun way from downtown and the East Village to the neighborhoods of Belmont Heights (historic district), Bluff Park (historic district), Bluff Heights and Alamitos Beach along the Broadway and 4th St., which adjoins Rose Park South (historic district).

It's a great opportunity to visit stores and shops such as KiKi Originals, an alternative to the warehouse style bridal stores "where you feel like a number instead of a bride." Shop owner, Kim Kessler, a resident of Long Beach for over ten years, has made dreams come true for her brides. KiKi Originals can design anything you can dream of for your wedding party including bridal gowns, bridesmaids, flower girls, and mothers. Sasha's Living With Style just recently expanded into a period Craftsman-style house on Broadway (see first photo above) which had been a rental for many years. The house is typical of many houses originally built in the area, and a great setting for her home design store.

Mark Sutherland of Bungalow Marcasso at 2720 E. Broadway specializes in home and garden accessories, arts, and gifts--"Voted Best Gift Store for 2007 by Beachcomber Newspaper readers!"

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How Today's Rate Cut Affects You

Quote of the day:

"Long-term rates, such as those for mortgages, don't respond directly to the Fed's short-term rate moves. Sometimes, mortgage rates move in the opposite direction when the Fed reduces the federal funds rate. But more often than not, mortgage rates eventually follow the Fed's lead. That might be one of the motivations of the central bank, (Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Corp) says -- "to help the housing market by lowering the refinance rate on many resetting mortgages. That makes it easier for people confronting resets, which we know are rampant right now, to achieve more affordable rates."

If you have a Home Equity Line of Credit, that will be favorably affected. But keep on eye on mortgage rates, because taking a cue from last week's volatility where there was an almost-unheard-of-three-quarters-of-a-percent movement in one day, you could definitely save money.

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What Does the Rate Cut Do For You?

Whenever the Federal Reserve increases or decreases rates as it did today, it means different things for different people. The winners will be people with good credit scores because the better your score, the better interest rate you receive. This means that if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, it's a really good time to refinance into a fixed interest rate mortgage. It's also a really good time to look for a new home--your payment will be lower with lower interest rates.

The other reason your credit score is so important is not just the rate you'll qualify for, it's the type of loan available to you. I'm including this somewhat pessimistic article (to appeal to the conservative among you) on today's rate cut, how it affects mortgage rates, and tighter lending standards compared to those of 2-3 years ago which have made certain loans out-of-reach that were once available for borrowers with lower FICO scores. At the same time, FHA loans (usually made with a very low down payment) are on the table with the Senate-passed FHA Modernization Act for an increase in loan amount to assist first-time buyers. There are in fact numerous first-time buyer programs available. In fact, the Los Angeles Times and the California Association of Realtors are hosting a free first time homebuyer fair at the Los Angeles Convention Center in April, 2008.

So if you're looking to refinance or purchase for the long term, you may have a great opportunity at this time.

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California Median Prices are Down and Up

The most recent California median prices, as reported by Dataquick for November, 2007, vary by area (figures reflect houses and condos together):
In Long Beach, zip code 90803 which is Bluff Park, part of Belmont Heights, Naples, Belmont Shore area, there were only 7 sales reported, but the median price for a single family home increased by about 9% over November 2006 sales. The condo sale median price decreased in 90803 by about 14% (based on 3 sales), and decreased in 90802 (based on 21 sales) by about 6% compared to 2006. But, overall, Long Beach only declined .98% from November 2006.

Cerritos house prices declined about 15% from Nov. 2006; Lakewood and Downey declined 11% and 12%; San Pedro, with ocean views from elevated areas, appreciated over 4%.

Some areas, such as Lancaster and Tujunga, with more foreclosure and short pay incidents are suffering hits to their prices.

Los Angeles County's November 2007 median price overall declined 4.79% over November 2006.

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"Let's Get a Little Perspective" - 2007 Was NOT a Bad Year

On Thursday mornings I usually attend a broker preview meeting for local agents--it's information sharing about listings, buyer needs, and an opportunity to network. Here's information sharing that came out of last week's meeting:

2007 is tracking to be the 4th BEST year in history since statistics began in 1952.

1988 -- 3.5 million units sold
1991 -- 3.1 million units sold
1998 -- 4.2 million units sold
2000 -- 4.6 million units sold
2004 -- 5.7 million units sold
2005 -- 7.1 million units sold
2006 -- 6.4 million units sold
2007 -- 5.5 million units sold

30% of U.S. homes are owned free and clear -- these are not affected by subprime loan conditions.

Total Mortgage Debt = $9.9 TRILLION

Subprime Mess = $75 Billion (equates to .0075% or 3/4 of a 100th of a percent)

Banks do NOT experience 100% loss in foreclosure -- potentially $25 billion (loss), or 1/3 of one 100% of a percent.


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Selling Price is Not the Whole Story

With this week's low interest rates, the opportunity to buy is better than ever. Did you know a half-point drop in your interest rate makes a huge difference on your monthly payment? Let's say you are taking out a $300,000 mortgage, and you have been expecting to pay 6%. What if the loan market changed, and/or you decided to pay an additional 0.5% to 1% towards buying down the rate (or you negotiated with the seller to do that for you!), and now you're able to get that same loan at 5.5% (an historically low rate). Your monthly principal and interest just lowered from $1798.65 to $1703.37.
What if you had that same $300,000 mortgage with a 6% interest rate and suddenly other economic factors in the market caused a jump up in rates, and in order to close on time, you're now going to pay 6.25%--you're payment is now $1847.15.
It really pays to not wait, whether it's making an offer, finding the right loan, getting that loan locked at the right time.
If you're thinking about waiting 6 months because you think home prices will be coming down further, just remember that even if that's true to a certain degree, the selling price of the home isn't the only thing that will impact your monthly payment.

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Long Beach Neighborhood, Lakewood and Cerritos Price Roundup for End of 2007

Happy New Year to All--

here is my first post for 2008, a round up of some local prices for houses and condos in several Long Beach neighborhoods in the last quarter of 2007, for which I shamelessly ask for a sign-in.

Unlike the recession of the mid-1990's, selling time is much longer (all over the country, too) but prices may not be falling through the floor, and there may be even a tightening of inventory in such areas as Belmont Heights--I'll be adding more areas to this list in the next few days, so please check back.
Sales are typically lower in the 4th quarter of any year, as also reflected here.
Click on the links for actual lists of houses sold.

Belmont Shore and Naples (90803) - 43 houses sold in the 3rd quarter; 24 houses sold in the 4th quarter.
Bixby Knolls, California Heights, Virginia Country Club areas - 53 houses sold in 3rd quarter; 48 single family homes sold in 4th quarter.
Los Altos area homes (90815) - 19 single family homes sold in the 4th quarter; 42 sold in 3rd quarter.
Park Estates area homes (90815) - 6 sold in 3rd quarter; 1 sold in 4th quarter.
Cerritos (all) - 66 houses sold in 3rd quarter; 29 houses sold in 4th quarter.
Lakewood (all) - 130 houses sold in the 3rd quarter; 93 houses sold 4th quarter.

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December 2008 Snapshot of Southern California Housing Inventory

County-wide figures for Los Angeles, Riverside and Orange Counties show longer days on market and list prices overall. Average or median prices may not apply to your specific neighborhood--for a property search by your zip code to see current asking prices as directly reflected in our MLS, click on my property search function in the right column.

December 28, 07 Average List Price Median List Price Average Days On Market Los Angeles County, CA Single Family under $600K $432,967 $444,000 98 Single Family over $600K $1,109,201 $799,000 104 Condo/Townhome under $400K $306,846 $310,000 105 Condo/Townhome over $400K $544,831 $495,000 103 Orange County, CA Single Family under $1M $620,083 $595,000 103 Single Family over $1M $2,342,000 $1,695,000 129 Condo/Townhome under $600K $382,017 $379,000 106 Condo/Townhome over $600K $990,403 $795,000 114 Riverside County, CA Single Family under $700K $372,495 $355,900 112 Single Family over $700K $1,166,487 $899,000 131 Condo/Townhome under $500K $262,638 $257,000 109 Condo/Townhome over $500K N/A N/A N/A

MORTGAGE. National Averages (December 28, 07)* 30-year fixed Rate - 5.84% APR - n/a% 15-year fixed Rate - 5.38% APR - n/a% 5/1 ARM Rate - 5.55% APR - n/a%

* Mortgage rates were collected from publicly available sources (yahoo.com) on the date stated. The accuracy of the information and the availability of these rates are not guaranteed by the publisher. Rates are provided for informational purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Actual market interest rates may vary.