Long Beach/Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Homeowner Vacancy Rate

Some markets, such as Florida, have been hit harder than others in the current market. Each quarter the U.S. Census Bureau publishes renter and homeowner vacancy rates; the 2007 4th quarter rate for homeowner vacancy of 2.8% is the highest since it began collecting this information in the 1960's (see comment at end). But the 4th quarter is also typically the slowest time for the housing market in general--fewer home sales, fewer people moving due to the holidays, or taking a listed home off the market temporarily for the holiday period.

Not all markets are the same: the Long Beach-Los Angeles-Santa Ana corridor rate was 1.6%, much lower than Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Orlando, or Indianapolis, for example, yet we rarely hear about those markets in the news media, but rather how difficult the California market is due to the number of foreclosures, which are not the only reason a home may be vacant. A home may also be vacant due being not yet sold and the owner has moved on, or a home being converted to a rental, or has second-home or seasonal use, which is a growing factor among the baby-boomer generation. The West as a region showed a higher number of seasonal vacancies in the 2007 4th quarter than in 2006, while the overall year-round vacancy rate in the West remained the same for both periods. See the Census Bureau chart. The WSJ Online comment that vacancy rates are "matching" the highest level since the Census Bureau started collecting this information is misleading--since the Census Bureau in its own comment says that areas are redefined every 10 years, and states which sets of years are not comparable to each other, i.e., 2005 and later data is not comparable to data prior to 1986 (see bottom of chart page).

Also from: The Wall Street Journal Online, March 21, 2008

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East Long Beach Still Sells

Zip code 90815 (excluding Park Estates and Bixby Hill areas) closed 37 transactions since January 1 to today's date in prices ranged from $355,000 to $715,000 for a single family home (data from the Southern California MLS)--one property reflected as a short sale (this data is only recently being reflected in the MLS). The same period last year closed 51 sales ranging from $476,000 to $930,000.


Currently, in these same 90815 areas of east Long Beach, Los Altos, Stratford Square, Lakewood Plaza, the Ranchos, La Marina, and Artcraft Manor, there are 83 active listings ranging in price from $380,000 to $1,095,000.


About 18 of these are impacted by short pay situations (meaning the seller is requesting the lender to accept a loan loss), however this area is far less impacted on the whole than other areas which may be as high as one-third of the active listings will require lender approval of the seller's short pay request.


It's opportunity time if you're ready to make a move! For a buyer- or seller-directed property search, please go to http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/, or go to http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ to search properties on the market by zip code, or price!



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Staging to Sell

If you're thinking about the things you need to do to prepare your home for sale, here is a video on the essentials. This video demonstrates how to create space through eliminating collectibles, or moving your furniture around.



http://www.expertrealestatetips.net/

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California FHA Loan Limits Now Up to $729,750!

A new and long-awaited temporary loan amount increase from $362,790 to the conventional loan maximum of $729,750 passed yesterday (until end of 2008)!

Per the Los Angeles Time: "The California counties at the new maximum level for FHA loans are Alameda, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Marin, Monterey, Napa, Orange, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Ventura. "

This could make FHA loans available to 30,000 additional Californians. FHA loans are characterized by low down payments of 3% and not as driven by FICO scores as conventional loans are.

Additional loan limits in Orange and Los Angeles Counties are:

1 unit 729,750
2 units 934,200
3 units 1,129,250
4 units 1,403,400

If you are considering purchasing a new house, condo or units for yourself, please contact me for a lender referral. Not all lenders specialize in FHA loans, so it's important to find someone who is experienced in these government loans. Call me at 562-896-2609, or you can go online in the meantime and search properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ or try a new type of property search at http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/ .

Tightening the Lending Standards--Is Your FICO Below 680?

Here's more on the trend that's been going on since late last summer: tightening lending standards, and Wells Fargo Bank is just one example as it tightens its lending standards in 200 markets across the country. If you want to buy, you must get your loan lined up before making an offer. This has always been considered the normal procedure for buyers. Now it's an absolutely essential must for any borrower. Conventional loan guidelines have changed drastically since 2007 to the point higher down payments may be required and stated income loans are now off-limits in some markets.

A Wells Fargo internal memo identified 30 markets in California alone as "at risk". Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (government-chartered mortgage financers) have surcharges for borrowers with credit scores below 680, a previously acceptable FICO score, and are requiring 5 percent down payment in markets identified as "declining". PMI (private mortgage insurance required on many loans less than 20% down) will be harder to obtain on loans with less than 3% down payment, and MGIC Investment Corp., a leading provider of private mortgage insurance, is discontinuing coverage of loans with down payments of less than 5% in 30 markets, which includes the entire state of California. So the message is: Don't count on that 100% financing or stated income loan in some instances, they're harder to find.

If finding a home is important, taking the time to invest in education about financing one is equally important.

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Mortgage Debt Relief Bill in California: Not Quite as Forgiving

Like the housing market, debt relief is a little more expensive in California.

On the state level, Senate Bill (SB) 1055, authored by Sen. Michael J. Machado, passed the Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee on an 8-0 vote. The measure would help California taxpayers whose lenders have forgiven a portion of their mortgage debt, by allowing them to exclude the forgiven debt from their incomes for state income tax purposes. Under existing state tax law, forgiven debt on mortgages is taxable to the borrower as ordinary income for the year in which the debt is forgiven. Per the Franchise Tax Board:

"If it passes, SB 1055 will conform to specified provisions of the federal Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 – with a notable difference. For California taxpayers, the period of excludable discharges would be from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2008. The federal period of excludable discharges is from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009."

When Are Short Sales A Good Buy?

There are more listings these days taken under "short sale" conditions, and naturally, buyers are looking for a good buy. For the agent, the Southern California MLS now accommodates property searches based on this category as well as for bank-owned properties, but what will be involved for the buyer? For example, in Cerritos, there are about 27 short sale listings out of 80 4-bedroom houses on the market. In the Wrigley and general California Heights areas in Long Beach, out of a search of 34 houses under $500,000, about 12 are noted to be short sales. In Huntington Beach, 35 out of 115 houses listed under $750,000 are showing as short sales in the MLS.

First of all, initial disclosure of the short sale by the seller and listing agent is absolutely critical, and should be placed in the MLS listing. A "short sale" is where the owner owes more than the current market value of the property, and where the lender forgives a portion of the loan to match up with the market. The transaction and sale is legally between the buyer and seller, but the fact is the bank will have the ultimate voice in approving the amount of sale. If you're a buyer in a hurry, you may have to be very patient because it's not likely that even if the seller agrees upon a 30-day escrow period, that the bank will be getting around to it that fast. The closing period will likely be closer to 60 days. Much depends on the personnel in its loss mitigation department.

Contractually, make sure you as a California buyer of a 1-4 unit property have completed the Short Sale Addendum as part of your purchase contract and which discloses the contingency of the seller's receipt of a short sale approval by the lender(s) (remember, there may be a second loan by a separate lender which will also have to be negotiated). And, the lender reserves the right to accept other offers, so if the price is not right for them, your offer might sit on a desk while the lender waits for a better offer. Since you don't want to wait forever for lender approval, you will want to insert a realistic date into your contract for the lender's response which enables you to contractually cancel and move on. If the property is an exceptional price for the area, be aware that you may be competing with other offers, even though the market is otherwise slow.

On the postive side, banks are less interested in going through the more costly foreclosure process, and they really would rather approve a seller's short sale, and if the short sale package is presented (some listing agents are not presenting one until they get an offer from a buyer) and dealt with on a timely basis, then the buyer may have some luck. The key is to finding a house you really want, and having the ability and the time to wait out the process.

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Recent California Sales and Prices

The red bars in the chart at the right show the drop in California median sales price of single family houses since last summer. Is this all due to the foreclosures and delinquencies, as is heard so much of in the general media?

Since 1974, the average foreclosure rate per year is .81% (including the highest rates back in 1996 and 1997 of around 2%), and at the end of 2007 was 1.7%. The mortgage delinquency rate was at 4.4% at the end of 2007 (long term average is 3.9% and up as high as 6% in the mid-1980's). This means that out of all the loans made, 1-2% of those loans are having problems.

The loan resets many of this group are facing will continue for some time to come, and certain areas highly impacted by foreclosures will be more affected by lower prices. But in any market, there are always buyers and sellers, however currently, sales are below the 350,000-400,000 the expected "baseline" activity per the state's inventory of home and population demographics, and seems to coincide with the tightening in the credit industry since last summer, so that many people who could buy are delaying.


The statewide median price for detached housing dropped from the mid $580's in August to about $525,000 in October, to $475,460 at the end of December, 2007. However, the Los Angeles County median price for houses in December was $487,000.

Buyers and sellers will need to know their local area prices--sellers should be realistic about their asking price, and buyers should not be expecting cutthroat bargains just because sales are slower. In some areas, sellers are taking their homes off the market and leasing them if they feel they cannot get their price, and therefore there can actually be a shrinking inventory in some neighborhoods. One neighborhood I have been tracking in Costa Mesa (Orange County) featuring Greenbrook homes has actually shrunk from 10-12 houses listed on the market last Spring 2007, to now showing 3 listed as "active" and 1 that went into escrow on Feb. 12, as of Feb. 16, 2008.






Charts and price data per California Association of Realtors


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Why Buy a Home in Today's Market? It's Getting More Affordable

The $168 billion package signed off on by President Bush earlier this week increased the maximum conforming loan limit up to as much as $729,750, or 125% of the median price. Conforming loan limits are generally set on a statewide level (as opposed to FHA limits which are more local)--HUD has 30 days to determine those loan limits, but this morning the feedback is that for Los Angeles and Orange Counties, the maximum limit may be set! The information should be available by next week. (3/3/08 NOTE: limits may now be set on a county basis, and Los Angeles and Orange Counties may receive the highest loan limit.)

Buyers, it pays to pay attention right now and make plans for yourself. With new rates coming into effect in the very near future, you want to be prepared to take advantage of those lower, former "jumbo" rates which will reduce the monthly payment.

_________________________________________

So, with a little help from C.A.R., "Why Buy a Home in Today’s Market?"

1. Interest rates on long-term, fixed, and adjustable mortgages are at historically low levels. The rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is hovering just below 6 percent, while, by comparison, interest rates were hitting 8 percent and higher during the last market downturn in the late 1990s, and were between 10 and 12 percent at the height of the last housing boom in the 1980s. Lower interest rates make it easier to qualify for a loan, and your monthly payments are more affordable.

2. No one can put a price on the intrinsic value of homeownership. Home prices also reflect financial worth and, the good news is, across California the median sales price for a single-family home has been consistently rising for several decades. The projected median home price for a single-family home in California in 2008, for example, is $553,000. By comparison, the median price in 2000 was $241,350; $193,770 in 1990, and $99,550 in 1980. (source: C.A.R.) Also, "The percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in California stood at 33 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, compared with 25 percent for the same period a year ago", according to a report released 2/19/2008 by C.A.R..

3. The length of time a home remains on the market before it is sold has increased from roughly two weeks in 2004 to between eight and nine weeks in 2007. With more homes on the market for longer periods of time, you have more choices when it comes to selecting a home today.

4. The multiple-offer frenzy that dominated the latest housing boom has subsided, and there is less pressure on today’s home buyers to outbid one another. REALTORS® in California reported that in 2007 only 28 percent of homes sold had multiple offers, compared with 57 percent in 2004. (source: C.A.R.)

5. The credit industry crisis that has made securing a home loan difficult for many has led to heightened scrutiny of mortgage lenders. As a result, state and federal agencies have created protections for home buyers that were not in place a year ago.

Buying a home in today’s market may be challenging, particularly for those with credit problems or little saved to put toward a down payment. But there are many factors impacting the current housing market that make buying a home today a viable option.

the above article courtesy of California Association of Realtors.

For a new site to set your own search, register at http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/.

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Top 10 Ways Sellers Can Guarantee Their Home Won't Sell

Paul Pastore’s Top 10 Ways Sellers Can Guarantee Their Home Won’t Sell:

"1. Be casual, not serious, about selling. A sage once quipped, “Money is only important when you don’t want something enough.” Actions speak louder than words in this market. Discretionary sellers should wait for a less competitive environment.

"2. Price it wrong. A home properly priced is half sold. No amount of full-color ads, glossy fliers, multiple photos, virtual tours, agent luncheons, Goodyear blimps, pom-pom girls or Saint Joseph statues will compensate for a wrong, timid retail price.

"3. Ignore your agent. Attorneys believe if you represent yourself, you have a fool for a client. Doctors don’t self-diagnose. Professionals use professionals. Even though many people believe they’re experts on raising kids and real estate, full-time, career pros usually know what’s best. Listen to them very carefully.

"4. Micromanage the marketing. If you sold cookware in college, carts in California, or carpeting in Cranston, it does not qualify you to second-guess your agent. If you had a real estate license years ago, save your stories about the “good old days” for your children. You can share your concerns and timelines, but leave the details to the listing pro.

"5. Reject staging suggestions. Someday shag multi-colored, sculptured carpeting will come back. Whitewashed cabinets, Navajo white walls, linoleum flooring, southwest decor, lots of personal photos, and Elvis paintings on black velvet need to go. Now.

"6. Let Fido loose. I recently entered a house and had two frisky, friendly black Labs run up to sniff me. Unfortunately, I had light-gray dress slacks on that day. Both wet stains lasted for hours. Until that day I didn’t realize dogs enjoyed chewing the tassels on expensive loafers.

"7. Talk to the buyers. Life gets lonely at times. Why not ask the buyers where they grew up? Or how much they qualify for. Tell them about the vacant rental next door. Maybe they could baby-sit next weekend! Why not share war stories, horror movies or meatloaf recipes?

"8. Sell personal items. Wow, maybe the buyers want to buy the patio furniture, rotary lawnmower, or life-size statue of Saint Anthony. You have only four more boxes of Girl Scout cookies to sell. Why not ask for a donation for the March of Dimes, the Humane Society, the local PBS station? Remember the saying, “loose lips sink ships.”

"9. Discount that smell. My house doesn’t smell of pets, baby diapers, curry powder, garlic, fried fish, coconut incense, cigars, manure, mulch, dairy farms or low tide. The buyer must be confusing my castle with a tract home.

"10. Dismiss feedback. What do buyers know anyway? They can’t possibly mind my barbed wire fence, heavy-duty rebar, backyard bomb shelter, airport runway views, lights from the power plant, hum from the high-voltage lines, railroad tremors, scorpion skeletons, termite mud tubes and pet snakes. What are they thinking?"

Copyright © 2008 RE/MAX International Inc. 2/4/08
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