Recent Market Activity in Long Beach--It's A "Sold" Time

The constant reporting on the number of foreclosures, i.e., such as this today from Inman News:
"California had the highest volume of foreclosure filings, with filings reported on 71,930 properties" is not saying what else is going on.

Unfortunately, I've had less time recently to devote to writing as many posts, but in checking the local Southern California MLS today for all residential and commercial listings, including leases, there are 2,473 active listings, with 555 in escrow (backup and pending categories).

Since April 1st, 564 properties have closed escrow; of that same number, in the last 30 days, 238 properties have closed escrow. Is it just because it's Spring and Summer, or is the market actually picking up. Another casual statistic overheard today is that Long Beach's inventory has in the past few weeks been reduced by one-third.

If activity in recent weeks is any indication, $300,000 is the bottom of the market in many areas for single family residences and $200,000 is the bottom for 2-bedroom condos. The bank-owned properties are so attractively priced in many cases that the investors and first-time buyers are having to compete with each other in multiple offer situations. In the last week, one condo was on the market 4 days and received 15 offers, another single family received 30 offers, and the same story for two other houses in the South Bay, also just listed days before, in residential neighborhoods. The winning offers on these properties were as much as $50,000 over asking price (in the case of the condo) and $20,000-$30,000 for the houses in this scenario, as-is, no repairs.

In spite of more activity, loan requirements are not necessarily that much easier, for example, some banks are going to 15% down payment requirements after July 1 (for conventional loans), and all lender sources have tightened up their FICO requirements. If you're buying a condo, be aware that new FNMA guidelines are requiring a closer look at the HOA's financial reserve funding status, plus a few other issues.

So if you're interested in a property, maybe this is finally the time for you to find your new home. You can take a look at http://www.juliahuntsman.com, but for a more targeted search, go to HomeBuyers Market (where you can mute the auditory on the video if you want to just watch).

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Are Reductions Finally Leading to the Price Change Point?

Along with the general information from National Association of Realtors that April's pending sales were up 6.3%, Lawrence Yun, the chief economist, also says,

“Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse, especially in areas that have experienced double-digit price declines, but it’s unclear if they are investors or owner-occupants,” he says. “Sharp price reductions are leading to a quicker discovery of price equilibrium points. The West is already seeing year-over-year gains in pending contracts.” See the pending home sales by region since 2005.

Some buyers are already discovering this locally. Single family house properties under $400,000 and mid-$300,000's in previously desirable areas are getting multiple offers, while the condo market and new home sales may be sitting a while longer. Per Realist's tax data information, the Los Angeles County median single family price for April, 2008 is $445,000 ($570,000 one year ago); for condominiums, $405,000 ($459,000 one year ago).

While California is officially not a "declining market" as of June 1 per FNMA and Freddie Mac, the proof is in whether or not the lenders follow suit with appropriate programs which will benefit first-time buyers in particular. Right now FHA is the most viable product for first-time buyers or low-down payment buyers. For additional assistance, please contact me or search properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/.

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Legal Settlement in Transunion Credit Score Lawsuit

Huge settlement in a legal case originally filed 10 years ago and affecting Transunion's credit reports and 160 million Americans:

"The case being settled stems from a business operated by TransUnion that sliced and diced data from the Chicago-based company's massive credit files to generate customized lists of consumers. Retailers, lenders and other businesses would buy the lists to use in their marketing."

"Under the settlement, anyone who had any type of loan account between January 1987 and Wednesday would be able to select one of two options:

"* A basic service would provide free credit monitoring for six months. It normally retails for $59.75, according to the settlement. Those who select this service can also apply for a cash payment.

"* An enhanced service would provide nine months of free monitoring, plus use of a "mortgage simulator" that lets consumers see whether improving their credit score would affect their mortgage rates and how much they could save if it did."

See the Los Angeles Times article for an update and for link to the settlement website.

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Naples Island Home on Canal--Luxury Property

Water view: Canal frontage plus a boat dock and private inner courtyard.

Click on photo for listing information.










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At Last! Finding the Right Home by Building Your Wish List

Here is a great video by Ilyce Glink talking about establishing your "wish list" for home buying. Whether you're currently a renter, or a homeowner who needs to sell before moving on, I believe this is what everyone really needs to do very early in their planning for a new home, from the house itself to the location that will best serve them! Once this is done, it's a lot easier to start matching up your desired neighborhoods and your financing programs with what's on your list. If you're looking for assistance on more ways to make that match, please contact me! If you're interested in a property search, either take a look at the Homebuyer Market Program below for a comprehensive approach to homebuying, or go to my MLS search at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ . Why do I say "at last!"??? Well, this may deeply surprise some of you, but in my experience I have actually met buyers who believe they will "just know" they have found the right house when they walk into it, and also in my experience, the buyers who "just know" are the ones who did their homework first.

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FNMA: California No Longer a "Declining Market"

Since last December, California was named a "declining market" by FNMA ("FannieMae"), but in the spirit of its original mission under its 1938 creation under Franklin D. Roosevelt to "help those who house America", last Friday, May 16th, it removed that designation.

So what does this mean for you? "The new national down payment policy will supersede the policy the company adopted in December 2007 that required higher down payments in markets where home prices are declining...", which means that once again 3% and 5% down payment conventional loan programs will be allowed in California (and other areas). For the last several months, no matter how good your credit was, a buyer couldn't get a loan unles he/she had 10% down funds of the purchase price. So if you were making an offer on a $500,000 home, you had to have $50,000 down payment funds, and many of the first-time buyer programs that might otherwise have been able to assist you are just not available right now. The new policy goes into effect June 1, so hopefully we will be seeing those loan options returning to the local market sometime after that.

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Is April 2008 the Bottom of the U.S. Housing Market?

According to this Opinion article by Cyril Moulle-Berteaux, in the Wall Street Journal, May 6, 2008, it might be--

• "Home sales peaked in July 2005" (I can buy that. In August 2005, the time on market started stretching out longer and longer. But it was August of 2007, when the loan credit shrank, that prices started to drop.)


• "Prices got so high that people who intended to actually live in the houses they purchased...stopped buying". Yes, the speculators left the building.


• "It now takes 19% of monthly income for the average home buyer, and 31% of monthly income for the first-time home buyer, to purchase a house. In other words, homes on average are back to being as affordable as during the best of times in the 1990s." And due to the reduction in types of loans, first-time buyers especially are at a disadvantage.


• "When the rate of house-price declines halves, there will be a wholesale shift in markets' perceptions." So in other words, could there be a shift in supply vs demand as people start to recognize some good buys?


• "House prices won't stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009. A five-month supply has historically signaled tightness in the housing market." He says we will see seven months supply by the end of 2008; currently, in many areas there is 10-11 months supply on the market.


• "Even if home sales pick up, how can home prices stop falling with so many houses vacant and unsold? The flip but true answer: because they always do." Another answer is that there are a lot of cash and 50% cash buyers -- not everyone is a first-time buyer -- and the cash buyers eventually become active in the market.

What do you think? Is is time to sow new ground yet, like those civic-minded Rotary guys in the old photo (local park, by the way)? Are we close to the bottom the market? If you don't think so, or you do, just leave a comment.

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Buyer Down Payment Assistance

Many times the buyer needs extra cash to close, and many times the seller might be willing and able to contribute funds in order to sell his/her property.

The HART (Housing Action Resource Trust) down payment assistance program is one designed to do just that. Unlike certain other program geared strictly to first-time buyers, geographic or income limitations, this program does not place such requirements. Also, in most loan programs, the seller may not pay towards the buyer's down payment, however, the HART program is structured so that funds from the seller given to the HART program may be used towards the buyer's: down payment, closing costs, pre-paid taxes, or rate buy-downs.

This program now allows for funds up to $25,000.00 (updated info) to be given by the seller as agreed upon in the contract to the HART program when a homebuyer is working with a participating HART mortgage originator and the buyer is obtaining an FHA loan.

For instance, the funds could be used in all categories:

$3,000 (closing cost)
$5,000 (down payment)
$2,000 (pre-paids)
$1,000 (rate buy-downs)
Total: $11,000.

If you would like to qualify for a loan or speak to a loan representative, please contact me.

More information is available at http://www.hartprogram.com/.

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Negotiating Buydown Strategy for Sellers

Reduce the price? or Buy down the interest rate?

Here's a great buydown strategy just sent to me today:

This rate buy down strategy will help sell your listings faster and help you respond to that low ball offer. In a competitive market to get a buyer, this could be a strategy that will make you (seller or agent) shine above the rest and solidify the close of escrow.

Question: Should you reduce your sales price or should you reduce your Buyer's interest rate?

Monthly Obligation

1. Did you know that a price reduction of $20,000 on your listing will save the buyer $103.00 per month?

2. The same $20,000 in buying down the interest rate will save the buyer $541.00 per month!

Qualifying

1. Did you know a buyer of your $450,000 listing needs $96,000 in income to qualify for the loan.
2. Did you know a buyer of your reduced $439,000 listing needs $94,200 in income to qualify for the loan.
3. Did you know that if you took that same $11,000 dollar reduction and paid down the interest rate, that listing needs only $74,400 in income to qualify for the loan.

Listing Scenarios:

Listing One-Listing Price $750,000.00--DOM=120, Payment=$3,453.00.
Price Reduction to $725,000--Payment=$3338.00, DOM=130.

Listing Two-Listing Price $750,000.00 and effectively reduced with a seller interest rate buydown. (Interest Rate Buydown Cost $12,750.00 to $19,125.00) DOM-?, Payment $2,922.00 , Sold! Saving the buyer over $45,000.00 in five years.

Listing One (Reduced)-Down Payment ($108,725.00) and Loan Closing Costs ($9,000.00) = $117,750.00 at the closing table.

Listing Two - Down Payment = $112,500.00 at the closing table. Loan Cost paid by sellers.

Listing One- Income Needed- ~$98,000.00

Listing Two- Income Needed- ~$87,000.00

Listing Two, with a buy down strategy, saves the buyer over $45,000.00 in five years and over $95,000.00 in ten years.

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Decline is in Sales Volume, Then Prices

Follow the pink line to the end of the first quarter--March 31, 2008--to see the continuing trend of sales volume falling at a much steeper curve than sales prices for Long Beach.

Tighter loan guidelines and less available funds for loans keep fiinancing tight for even the most qualified buyers, giving cash buyers a distinct advantage in this market.

The median sales price for Los Angeles County is $431,950, a decrease from February's median of $477,650--this data does not include condos. (These figures are not representative of the average price of homes in all communities, but are priced on homes that actually sold.)

Per California Association of Realtors, the March data is:

Statewide, the 10 cities and communities with the highest median home prices in California during March 2008 were: Newport Beach, $1,198,500; Danville, $990,000; Santa Barbara, $977,500; Redwood City, $872,500; Mountain View, $862,000; San Clemente, $842,000; Sunnyvale, $806,500; San Ramon, $790,000; Redondo Beach, $774,000; San Francisco, $755,000.

In spite of the overall California median price for a single family detached home decreasing to $413,980, 29 percent decrease from the revised $582,930 median for March 2007, some communities have median price gains compared to one year ago: Mountain View, 25.8 percent; Sunnyvale, 15.2 percent; Redwood City 12.9 percent; Yorba Linda, 10.4 percent; San Ramon, 7.6 percent; Ridgecrest, 7.6 percent; Claremont, 6.7 percent; West Hollywood, 3.6 percent; Laguna Niguel, 3.3 percent; San Francisco, 0.7 percent.

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