Long Beach Year-to-Date for Single Family Homes as of September 2023 (and LA County Information)

Year to Date Stats September 2024

 

 Long Beach Market, September year to date:  

• Existing home sales total 796 (down almost 30%)
• Monthly average of active listings total 94 (down over 26%)
• Active listings with reduced prices total 31.4%  
  

Sales to list price is 100% with the median price of $900,000.  There's still competition out there and at the same time sellers need to be realistic on pricing and offers for their local market.

As of 11/7/2023: there are 153 active listings of single family homes in Long Beach, with a median of 32 days on the market (yes, at this time of year timing is usually slower).

September Los Angeles County Inventory Report showing city prices and market information:

 

Contact me for your real estate needs!

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Statewide California Home Sales Facts for July, 2023

 

July California Sales and Price Report

Market Information - median  day to sell  down by 2 days; sales to list ratio is the same; price per square foot down by $2; 30-year fixed rate up over 1%....

Information from the California Association of Realtors about sales statewide:

• The median number of days it took to sell a California single-family home was 16 days in July and 18 days in July 2022.

• C.A.R.’s statewide sales-price-to-list-price ratio* was 100 percent in July 2023 and 100.0 percent in July 2022. 
• The statewide average price per square foot** for an existing single-family home was $409, down from $411 in July a year ago. 
  
• The 30-year, fixed-mortgage interest rate averaged 6.84 percent in July, up from 5.41 percent in July 2022, according to C.A.R.’s calculations based on Freddie Mac’s weekly mortgage survey data.

 

*Sales-to-list-price ratio is an indicator that reflects the negotiation power of home buyers and home sellers under current market conditions. The ratio is calculated by dividing the final sales price of a property by its original list price and is expressed as a percentage. A sales-to-list ratio with 100 percent or above suggests that the property sold for more than the list price, and a ratio below 100 percent indicates that the price sold below the asking price.

**Price per square foot is a measure commonly used by real estate agents and brokers to determine how much a square foot of space a buyer will pay for a property. It is calculated as the sale price of the home divided by the number of finished square feet. C.A.R. currently tracks price-per-square foot statistics for 50 counties. 

Thought for consideration: while interest rates are challenging for buyers, many are able to negotiate a buydown from the seller. For more information about how a buydown can help you, please contact me via text, phone or email.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Snapshot of Single Family Home Market in Los Angeles County and Long Beach - March 2023

The Los Angeles County update for

Los Angeles County Market Update

March 2023.
 

Median Price for Single Family home: $718,370

Home Sales are Down - 30%

Unsold Inventory - 2.2 Months down 22%

Median Time on Market - 19 days

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Long Beach Market for March 2023

Long Beach Market Update

Median Price for Single Family Home $916,000 - Increase over 2%

 Home Sales are Down - 35%

 Active Listings  Down - 21%

 Median Days on Market - 12 days

 Sales to List Price - 100%

 Active Listings w/ Reduced Prices - 30.4%

 Overall, time on market continues to drop, and supply is tight as new listings decline from last year.

California's 50 of 51 counties experienced a sales drop compared to a year ago, with 35 counties dropping more than 30% in sales volume, with weather having a major impact.  Median price statewide for March was $791,490, compared to the $851,130 median price for March of 2022. California Association of Realtors reports:

"California’s median home price grew for the first time in seven months in March, increasing 7.6 percent from February’s $735,480 to $791,490. March’s price also was lower on a year-over-year basis for the fifth consecutive month, declining 7.0 percent from the revised $851,130 recorded last March. With home prices rising more sharply than the normal seasonal pattern last year, the market could see larger year-over-year price drops as it moves through the spring home-buying season."

Even with interest rates higher than last year, prices locally in Long Beach remain strong, while inventory is low and buyers are still competing with each other. If you would like to get an estimate of value for your home, please contact me. Getting a home estimate is a good planning tool, even if you are not sure you're selling right away.  While there are online estimates of value available, automated valuation systems do not select for certain property features, and may vary greatly with one another. Ask a professional.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Changes in the Single Family Home Long Beach Market in 2023

December 2021, April, 2022 and December 2022

Long Beach Market Graphic 2021-2022 - Single Family

  

Long Beach Market March 2023 - Single Family

Buyers and sellers alike felt the shift in interest rates in the summer of 2022 -- buyers were driven out of their desired price range into a lower priced market which was more competitive, and some buyers were discouraged altogether by qualification issues.

In comparing the 2021-2022 graph for December 2021, April 2022 (just before rates started to climb) and December 2022, certain things stand out.  The number of closed sales decreased by 46%, and the number of listings, already low for available buyers, dropped even lower by 17%.  By December 2022, the median sales price dropped over 7% to $839,000 and the average sales price dropped to $894,176, a decrease of over 12%. Pending sales dropped over 53% compared to the previous December. The months supply of inventory showed an increase by December, but still quite low by historical standards, but in actual numbers of homes for sale, the inventory increased 40% by December, 2022.  Note that April's median and average sales prices were over $1,000,000  before dropping to December's level. 

However, by March, 2023 the median and averages sales prices have increased to $899,000 and $982,386, but not up to the high in April 2022, while months supply has increased to 1.6 month -- higher than 2022 figures. Days on market has also increased to 33 days in March - a far cry from the 7-day average frenzy during the Pandemic with its super-low interest rates. Pending sales in March 2023 also increased from December 2022, a sign of more buyers in the market.

It's a time for seller's to be realistic on prices, even though there is a continuing demand for inventory, and competitive bids. While qualified buyers are able to buy in the higher priced market, they expect value for their money.

For a qualified Realtor's estimate of home value, please contact me.  I've been serving sellers since 1994 in residential property in the Long Beach and surrounding areas.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Long Beach Sales and Listings Trends; County Sales and Listings Trends

Closed Sales Graph for PWR Region

In the region covered by the Pacific West Association of Realtors, extending over south Los Angeles County and Orange County cities, the graph clearly illustrates falling volume of sales. Single family homes closed in January 2022 were at 1,650, while SFRs closed in January 2023 were at 1,091.  Townhouse-condo closings were similar: 849 last year vs. 471 sales in January 2023 -- a drop of almost 50%

But the new listings on market show an improvement over the same geographic area:

Homes for Sale Graph in PWR Region

January 2023 shows an active inventory increase of 12.5% for single family homes, and an increase of 30.6% increase for condominiums-townhouses compared to one year ago.  Neither are as high as 2021, but the upswing shows more owners are moving on to allow more buyers to enter the market.

Starting Out in 2023's Real Estate Market

As of mid December 2022, these are some of the conditions leading into 2023.

The labor market - There are two jobs for every job seeker, which puts pressure on wages, and ultimately creates higher prices for products.

Recession ahead - Most likely, maybe in the 2nd quarter of 2023. Mortgage rates fall typically with a recession, and an increase in demand follows. 

Supply and demand wavered in 2022 - Inventory for single family homes still lower than prior to the beginning of the pandemic, in mid-December 1,000,000 homes were on the market per the National Association of Realtors. 

U.S. Total Inventory of Home on Market

Southern California Counties inventory on market, 3-year average prior to COVID:

Los Angeles  - 9,349 (down 11%)

Orange: 2,939 (down 36%)

Riverside: 6,115  (down 27%)

San Bernardino: 3,471  (down 21%)

Ventura: 851 (down 35%)

The average days on market for Los Angeles, Riverside and San Bernardino Counties were over 100 days.

Median Price and Mortgage Rates in Southern California:

Median Price and Rates

By mid-December, interest rates went to below 6.5%, from a high of over 7 % a couple of months prior. The dark blue line shows the  corresponding increase in monthly payment, and obviously there's been extreme changes in the rates since the beginning of 2022. Buyers are seeing the return of assistance programs in the form of grants (with conditions of course), and more sellers have been willing to do buydowns in rates for the buyers. 

Buydown scenario:

$800,000 Price, 20% down, $640,000 loan amount, 750 FICO score, single family home. The mortgage only payment in Year One is $3,148; Year Two is $3,534, and $3,940 for Year Three and beyond. The seller contribution to buyer to make this happen is $14,400. 

A survey by Lending Tree showed that 41% of Americans think that there will be a housing crash in the next 12 months (from November 2022).  But in the words of Steven Thomas, Orange County Economist:

"The number one reason why a crash will not occur is a lack of available homes to purchase. When the inventory builds, it takes a lot longer to sell. When the unsold inventory rises above 300 days, negotiations lean heavily in favor of buyers and home values fall rapidly. The unsold inventory in Southern California, according to the California Association ofor 2022 in July at 99 days. In comparing today’s unsold inventory to the two years leading up to the Great Recession, 2006 and 2007, the difference is stunning. The unsold inventory peak in 2006 was 219 days, and it was 456 in 2007.   Home prices are not tumbling at the rate they were in 2007-2008 when values sank by 40%."

There is no panic selling and no forced selling in today's market, there are limited homes to sell because homeowners are choosing not to sell. Today's loan delinquency rate is at its lowest level in decades.

If you are thinking of making a change, please contact me for assistance in finding your home's value and how to prepare for a sale.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

A Slowing of Rate Increases, Finally?

The sequence of four straight hikes of 75 basis points (.75%) in a row was capped last Wednesday Dec 14 by a rate hike of 50 basis points (.5%), all in an effort to cap inflation.  Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recognize the stress of these rate hikes, and continues to promise to be vigilant in fighting inflation, but it perhaps has been having the opposite effect.

"Indeed, the statement released by the FOMC pointed to “ongoing increases in the target range” in order to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. New economic projections issued Wednesday by the central bank revealed that officials now anticipate inflation to close this year at 4.8%, gradually dwindling back to 3.5% in 2023 and falling to 2.5% in 2024."  The Fed's policy rate is now at 4.5%, the highest since 2007.  https://www.scotsmanguide.com/browse/content/fed-finally-backs-off-of-75basispoint-hikes-with-december-rate-increase

However, the federal funds rate and mortgage rates sometimes move in opposite directions, such as in early December when mortgage rates fell in response to declining inflation.  "Although there's merely an indirect link between mortgage rates and the federal funds rate, the Fed does have a direct influence on the rates charged on home equity lines of credit, which typically have adjustable rates." https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/mortgages/fed-mortgage-rates

California Association of Realtors, in its October prediction for 2023, was somewhat stark in its prediction of the market and the economic factors affecting housing for 2023:

Inflation will not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024; interest rates will surge again; home sales will dip as costs of borrowing rise; housing affordability will be in the headwinds in 2023, but home prices will not fall as they did in 2009 era.
 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

More on California's 2022-2023 Housing Market Outlook

For Southern California as a region, inventory has come up to 3 months, but is still not considered a "normal" amount of housing on the market. Compared to Sept. 2021, price has increased by 3.8% while homes sales decreased over 32% in same period.  In Los Angeles County, September 2021 showed 3,630 home sales, but the September 2022 volume reduced to 2,481 homes sales, and list price to sales price ratio was 97.8%, meaning on average sales prices were over 2% lower than list.  Orange County homes sold even a little lower percentage at over 3% below list.

 

The market is not as competitive

Housing affordability in Los Angeles County in 2nd Quarter of 2022 was at 16%,  Orange County at 12%, meaning these counties are in the bottom third of housing affordability in California. Lassen County stands at highest affordability rate in the state -- at 54%.

Fed Funds rate predicted to come down

Buyer demand in the housing market is dipping below pre-pandemic markets, as shown by the dip in mortgage applications in most of 2022, compared to 2018-2021.

Housing supply constraints continue, as shown by the number of housing permits issued, plus the number of years owners stay in a home before selling, another great cause of limited inventory. The current average length of stay is 10 years, whereas in 2006 it was 5 years before selling. 

Don't expect a surge in foreclosures, California has the lowest rate of foreclosure at .6%, and most other states are under a 3% rate for foreclosures. In recent years buyers have had higher down payments, creating greater equity in their homes, and the percentage of California buyers with second mortgages has decreased from 43% in 2006 to 2.2% in 2022.

California's median home price for 2023 is predicted to reduce to $758,600 from 2022's $831,000.

• Housing demand will continue to pull back as economic uncertainty and affordability challenges remain
• Supply shortage will still be an issue despite improvement in housing inventory in the short term
• Prices will soften in the next few months but should begin to stabilize in H223
• Inflation will remain a threat to the economy and the market in 2023
• Rates will rise further and will peak in mid-2023
• Buyers and sellers need REALTORS® even more to navigate through the market uncertainty

 Demand will continue to slow in 2023, and home prices will slow, but the type of market seen in 2009 is not predicted to occur, inflation is not predicted to abate until 2024, interest rates may continue to rise as the Fed tries to fight inflation. 

 

Thanks to CAR's Oscar Wei, Deputy Chief Economist, the source of this information at our Fall Forum.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

California Housing Market for September, and 2023 Annual Prediction

 According to California Association of Realtors report on current sales and pricing for September, the existing home price in September for Southern California was $783,380, a year to year increase of over 3%, but existing home sales slipped since last May and are down over 32% year to year.  Sales dipped as rates climbed - pending sales fell more than 40% as mortgage rates hit 20-year high.

So Calif Housing Prices/Sales

The California median price is up from last year, but dipped to a seven month low, $821,680 and the median price for a condo/townhome is $620,000.  The sales price to list ratio dipped to the lowest level since 2019, and the share of homes selling above asking price was 28.3% vs. 72% in the Spring of 2022.

In Los Angeles County in September, approximately 30% of homes sold over list price, the highest being San Francisco County at 64%.  

While inventory slipped a little, it's still comparable to pre-pandemic levels of being under 3 months (normal is 6 months, not seen since 2012).  Active listings have increased over last year but still lower than 2018 and 2019.  Southern California has seen the largest growth in active listings over all other California regions.   Time on market was a median of 22 days, double that of one year ago. Sales to list price ratio was 97.7%.  The median reduction amount for reduced price listings was 5.6% while 44.5% of listings had a reduced price.

2023 Calif Housing Forecast

The October annual CAR forecast at the Long Beach Convention Center predicts an overall softening of the housing market for 2023 by about 7%, where the median price is $758,000 vs. the current $821,680. This may be a relief for some buyers, however the 30-year Fixed Interest Rate is predicted at 6.6%, and in recent days has threatened to increase even more.  Buyers may be interested to know that mortgage lenders are bringing back programs that will help some buyers with grants, etc., to help their buying process.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996