Long Beach Residential Update for July, 2021

 

Median listing prices for active properties in Long Beach range from $425,000 to $1.4 million in July, 2021.   The least number of properties on the market are in the lower price range of under $500,000, most inventory is listed well over $600,000.  

About this graphic:  This graphic combines single family homes and condos into one median price point for the "active" properties for the month.  The median price is where half sold for more and half sold for less; medians are more typical than average prices.  The estimated monthly mortgage payment assumes a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at the current interest rate. Payment also includes an assumption of 1.38% for property taxes and insurance.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Infographics on Los Angeles and Orange County Housing Reports for July 2020

 For Orange County, existing house sales were up in July from last year, but in Los Angeles County sales were down by about the same amount.  In both counties, the number of active listings was down over 40% from last year.  And in both counties the median price increased over 4% and 6% from July, 2019.  

What is driving the upward price trend?  Lower inventory and continuing buyer demand for homes.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

REALTORS® vs Real Estate Data and Your Home

Real estate data on the internet exists in multiple forms and multiple places.  I think the paradox is  that with all the available sources of data, many people are actually less knowledgeable about real estate "facts" due to the growing number of multiple choices to view real estate listings on the internet.

Issues:

• Non-REALTOR® internet sources are not obligated by a code of ethics, and are not required to be licensed real estate professionals. Commercial sites obtain permission (in most cases) from MLS (multiple listing service used by REALTORS®) sources which contain the original listing information, and then publish it on their sites. Active listings syndicated from MLSs are not "public information" similar to what could be found in a search of property tax records for sold properties, but are the result of listing contracts signed between sellers and their licensed brokers which are then published on other commercial sites. Not all sellers want their addresses published this way, and some refuse to do so.  The National Association of Realtor code of ethics not only requires certain higher professional standards of REALTOR® members, they also may have a legal impact as well. For instance, in California an agent, governed by state law and by a code of ethics, may represent both buyer and seller in single transaction with the parties' agreement, but dual agency is a violation of the law in Colorado and Florida.
• Skews data--i.e., days on market is undetermined when "pre-listed" as a "coming soon" listing on the internet that is not yet in the MLS . The number of days on market in the MLS is significant for seeing a trend between demand and supply--the more days on market may indicate more properties for buyers to choose from, or there may be a seasonal effect such as cold weather where showings are slow, or there may be more buyers have financial qualification problems so that properties are falling out of escrow and properties are coming back on the market. This information is just one fact not available when properties are sold off the MLS, and is not available for analysis by the many legitimate providers of real estate analysis, such as real estate appraisers, who utilize MLS information.  This is just one of factors in off-MLS listings.
• Are off-MLS listings getting, you the seller, the best price and the most money for your property?  Off-MLS listings are may also be known as "pocket listings" or may be listed on specific non-MLS sites for individual sale.  Generally, a seller can be more assured of receiving a fair market price when his/her property is exposed to a broad market of potential buyers.  Since the MLSs exist nationwide as cooperative organizations composed of over one million REALTORS® each with their own database of clients, please see this article about determining what is in a client's best interest when choosing a private venue in which to sell property:  http://www.realtor.org/news-releases/2014/06/coming-soon-properties-can-create-consumer-confusion.

The internet, and competing housing data sites, is here to stay.  Buyers have become accustomed to searching online before even finding a REALTOR® to work with, and there may be certain advantages to that if the buyer is prepared with some prior market knowledge by the time a REALTOR is selected. 

For sellers who want to get market value, there are sites offering an "instantaneous" home evaluation price, based on property tax sales data and certain other measurements built into various proprietary software.  The software does not do what a human does, however, which is go inside the property for sale and develop human judgment about it.  Such software can be wildly inaccurate on price -- Zillow by its own admission can be as much as 30% away from actual sale price.  Companies such as CoreLogic may be a little more accurate, but no one should pinpoint the value of their property based on a software system alone. The illustration at right is from the Realtors Property Resource program and is an actual estimated 2014 value for a Long Beach property, showing an extremely large range with two stars for its level of confidence.  In an area of fewer matching comparables based on the data available to the software, it's tougher to come up with a tighter price estimate.  Don't you think the buyer would choose the lower price, and the seller wants the higher price?  A further illustration of comparisons of sold price vs. Zillow's Zestimate for actual Long Beach properties sold in 2014--due to CRMLS policies only the sold addresses can be sold--as provided by CRMLS.

Online source for housing values:

Metropolitan Sales Areas - Housing Data and Map--National Association of REALTORS®.

Best Time Ever to Save on a Mortgage Payment in Southern California

30-year mortgage rates since Sept. 2007

Dear Buyers:

Did you know rates are about 3.49% right now? Best time ever to save on a new mortgage payment in the Long Beach, California area!

Rates have trended downward since 2008, and that means you will pay less on your monthly mortgage payment for the same selling price. 

See what your monthly median payment will be at different interest rates and different selling prices.

The lower chart was made up when interest rates were a little higher, but get out your calculator to easily compute a selling price at a lower rate as follows:

Comparisons at higher rates/higher prices

For a home priced at $400,000, with a 20 percent downpayment and a 4 percent mortgage rate, the monthly PITI (principal, interest, insurance and taxes) will be $1,990 for the homebuyer. The monthly PITI jumps to $2,180 at 5 percent and to $2,380 at 6 percent. For each one percentage point increase in the mortgage rate, the payment goes up by almost $200 under these assumptions. Even for a lower priced home at $200,000, the difference in the monthly payment is significant as each percentage point rise in the mortgage rate tacks on $100 to the monthly PITI.  So, for a $400,000 home at today's 3.49 percent mortgage rate, the monthly PITI would be about $1885, and a savings of over $100 at a 4 percent rate.

Pulsenomics, in its latest quarterly survey shows housing prices for the future.
Price appreciation/depreciation expected over the next five years:
2012: -.4%
2013: +1.3%
2014: +2.6%
2015: +3.2%
2016: +3.5%

The average pre-bubble (1987-1999) annual appreciation was 3.6%.
(Thanks to KCM Blog for Pulsenomics data.)

Are Reductions Finally Leading to the Price Change Point?

Along with the general information from National Association of Realtors that April's pending sales were up 6.3%, Lawrence Yun, the chief economist, also says,

“Bargain hunters have entered the market en masse, especially in areas that have experienced double-digit price declines, but it’s unclear if they are investors or owner-occupants,” he says. “Sharp price reductions are leading to a quicker discovery of price equilibrium points. The West is already seeing year-over-year gains in pending contracts.” See the pending home sales by region since 2005.

Some buyers are already discovering this locally. Single family house properties under $400,000 and mid-$300,000's in previously desirable areas are getting multiple offers, while the condo market and new home sales may be sitting a while longer. Per Realist's tax data information, the Los Angeles County median single family price for April, 2008 is $445,000 ($570,000 one year ago); for condominiums, $405,000 ($459,000 one year ago).

While California is officially not a "declining market" as of June 1 per FNMA and Freddie Mac, the proof is in whether or not the lenders follow suit with appropriate programs which will benefit first-time buyers in particular. Right now FHA is the most viable product for first-time buyers or low-down payment buyers. For additional assistance, please contact me or search properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/.

Long Beach long beach real estate 'Voice this!