Early March 2024 California Real Estate Report

 Here's an abridged summary of CAR's market data report:

March 4, 2024 – Recent economic reports suggest that inflation continues to cool from last year but may remain sticky in the short term. ... While it is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will not cut its policy rate in its upcoming meeting, mortgage rates could begin to trend down more meaningfully towards the end of the second quarter if the economy continues to slow.    

 

Consumer confidence slips for the first time in three months: Consumers’ attitude towards the economy took a step back in February, as the Conference Board’s Consumer Index fell 4.2 points to 106.7 last month, declining for the first time since November of last year. ... Recent rising trend in interest rates could have affected how Americans feel about the economy as well, and concerns over the U.S. political environment may also have been a contributing factor to the decline in the optimism.    

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Mortgage rates remain elevated after key inflation data: The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) reported by Freddie Mac for the week ending February 28 climbed again for the fourth consecutive week to the highest level since mid-December of last year. ... The Fed wants to see more evidence that inflation is slowing consistently and could wait until the second half of the year before making any rate cuts. Mortgage rates, as a result, could remain elevated at the start of the homebuying season. 

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Income edges up but inflation-adjusted spending dips: Americans were making more in January but may not be spending more after accounting for inflation. Personal income growth jumped 1% on a month-over-month basis and recorded the highest increase since July 2021. ... With the core PCE deflator notching its biggest monthly gain in 12 months, real consumer spending, in fact, declined 0.1%, the lowest since August of last year. 

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Construction spending unexpectedly falls in January: Construction spending in the U.S. started off the year slow with total outlays declining on a month-to-month basis by 0.2% in January, its first drop in 13 months. ... With vacancy rate likely to climb as more new apartments are expected to be released this year, multifamily construction should pull back further in the next 12 months.

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Mortgage delinquency holds steady near historic lows: Mortgage delinquency inched up at the end of 2023 but remained near record low levels, according to a recent report from CoreLogic. Mortgage borrowers who were late in making their payments by at least 30 days or more accounted for 3.1% of all outstanding mortgages in December, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from 3.0% recorded in December 2022. ... With home prices projected to increase in 2024 and the economy likely to experience a mild growth this year, delinquency rate could rise but is not expected to increase sharply in the next 12 months.

 

Spring is coming and so is it time to seriously think about your real estate plans for this year?

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

January 2024 Market Report for Long Beach and Los Angeles County

LA County and Long Beach Housing Data, Jan. 2024

 Sales growth for Long Beach in January was down by 5%, while the median price climbed upward another 8% to $886,000.

Median price for all of Los Angles County was $925,000, also an increase by 8%.

Look at other cities: Similar median price but far fewer sales, such as Hawthorne, West Covina,, Claremont and San Dimas. 

 So one of the things this chart shows is that Long Beach is more active than other cities: housing variety, larger city, range of prices.

Sales over list price: in Long Beach in January, 49% of sales were over list price, for Los Angeles County it was 39% of sales were over list price.

(This is an interactive chart, display is a screenshot only.  I would be happy to forward the link upon request, it covers all counties and most cities in California.)

NOTE:  The graph at the right shows average home price for Long Beach for February 2024 was $1,086,764, and increase of  11.1%; the median home price in February was $925,000, an increase of 5.7% (compare to January median price of $886,000).

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

California Continues Upward Price Increase -- See Comparisons

 

Current graph on Calif home price in 2024

 In spite of fluctuating rates, going down, the back up, demand is high and supply is low. Recent data provided by CAR economist Jordan Levine this last week and NAR, shows that currently 32% of home sales are all cash, back to where we were a few years ago. So 1/3 of buyers are not concerned with mortgage interest rates.  The current California home price is $788,940, and the number of single family active listings was 29,000 in January, down from 32,000 in January 2023. And, we are at the lowest level of mortgage applications in the last 30 years!

Why is buyer demand so low right now, when the U.S. unemployment rate is at 3.6%?  Is someone telling you as a buyer it's better to wait because interest rates will be coming down even lower? That is very unlikely to happen.. 

Interest rate data forecast

Typically, the gap between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate spans 1.5 to 2 percentage points. For much of 2023, that margin grew to 3 percentage points, making mortgages more expensive. - Bankrate.com

 Click on this link to use the Purchasing Power Calculator, which provides multiple comparisons for the buyer's location and financial situation :  http://www.car.org/marketdata/interactive/interestrateaffordability

We all remember the extremely low interest rates in the 3% range during Pandemic housing market, and how that coincidentally pushed prices up in bidding wars. It's still a competitive market, but as more listings come on the market in 2024, there is hope that buyers will have a better playing field.

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

What Happened in 2023 in the California Real Estate Scene

Graphic showing 2023 market data in California

 The 2023 housing market had ups and downs, but buyer competition remained, and prices continued upward for the most part, in spite of inflation, shrinking insurance availability, and increased mortgage interest rates.

Home sales slowed, but the housing market hasn't crashed. Mortgage rates went to 7 percent, prompting many homeowners to not sell, and those who did were sometimes offering incentives to the buyers.  Housing shortages are reflected in the December to December 23% decrease in new listings, and the overall 20% decrease in closed sales.  But median and average sale prices both increased.

For 2024, the chief economist of the California Association of Realtors, Jordan Levine, predicts continued price improvement, and sales volume improvement compared to 2023. Mortgage rates are already easing, which lowers the monthly mortgage payment amount, and perhaps will fall to the 6-6.5% range. To combat the inventory shortage, expect widening support  for accessory dwelling nits and the conversion of empty office buildings into residential space. Insurance carriers may continue to withdraw, and cause an increase in prices while forcing the buyers to look at outside carriers.  The California Fair Plan is a growing option, but comes at a higher cost for only basic coverage.  Buyers should do their  best to find as many insurance carrier options as possible.  A new down payment assistance resource directory may offer help for some buyers, contact me for a program that may work for you.

You're probably aware of ChatGPT generated information, and the discussions about using Artificial  Intelligence (it's not new, a Magnum P.I. segment in the 1980s had Magnum and his consultant friend talking about and referring to artificial intelligence and what they were discovering then what computers could do!) are now frequent in the real estate profession. Some property descriptions, marketing materials and social media posts are online from AI.

The median-priced home in California is now $830,620,  in Long Beach the December 2023 average sales price was $1,060,056 and for a condo it was $557,532--but that varies: the 90803 zip code average price for condos was $741,333.

With the softening of interest rates (remember, an 800+ credit score gets you the best rate, so take care of your credit), buying a home may be more possible for buyers and sellers alike.  Please contact me with any questions, sometimes all it takes is a conversation to help get you started.

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

California Housing Market Prediction for 2024 - New Increase Projection

CAR Convention 2023 Front Entry

The annual conference was held last week in Anaheim, along with the traditional annual market prediction for the next year by the California Association of Realtors Economist Jordan Levine.

The entire report is available for anyone who would like a copy--here are 3 main takeaways from the presentation:

•     Existing, single-family home sales are forecast to total 327,100 units in 2024, an increase of 22.9 percent from 2023’s projected pace of 266,200.
•     California’s median home price is forecast to climb 6.2 percent to $860,300 in 2024, following a projected 1.5 percent decrease to $810,000 in 2023 from 2022’s $822,300.
•     Housing affordability(percent of households who can afford the median price home) is expected to remain flat at 17 percent next year from a projected 17 percent in 2023.

 Insurance as many already know is a big issue for homebuying.  In a housing survey for 2023, rural area buyers had the most challenge--32% of those buyers reported difficulty obtaining insurance. The lowest percentage of buyers having problems were for city downtown areas (12%), city outside of downtown (14%), and suburb buyers (15%). 

The share of international buyers in California on the increase again after reaching its lowest point in 2020, but still not at the highest point share of buyers (almost 8%) in 2013. 

Owners over the age of 65 are the highest share of homeowners in the state: 50%; the age group 25-34 years represent 13% of all homeowners.

All cash buyers are approximately 27% of the market in 2023, up from 10% in 2005.

Sellers are holding on to properties longer than ever: they have low interest rates on mortgage, lower property taxes, may have a capital gains hit if they sell, wondering where they can go, so they remodel and stay many times. 

About 45% of the population in Los Angeles County owns a home, compared to 73% of San Mateo County, and 5% of Kings County and Imperial County. 

Inventory months of supply (time to use up all homes on market if no new ones came on the market) remains one of the larger challenges, it hasn't increased since August of 2022, still at 2.3 to 2.4 months overall.

• Existing, single-family home sales are forecast to total 327,100 units in 2024, an
  

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.abodes.realestate | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996