Long Beach End of Year Housing Stats

Willmore, Long Beach

Best wishes for a Happy New Year!

In spite of the lowest inventory ever (at end of November Long Beach was at .8 months, meaning inventory had about 3 weeks of life at that point), 2021 saw more sales in houses and condos in Long Beach than 2020 did, as of December 31, 2021.

2020 = 2,073 SFR sold; 1,027 condos sold. (CRMLS sales)

2021 =2,281 SFR sold; 1,320 condos sold. (CRMLS sales) 

 (These figures do not account for the off-MLS sales, many of which have been later flipped for sale on the MLS, or have sold as "pocket listings" (a practice addressed under the Clear Cooperation Policy of National Association of Realtors), however, the vast majority of residential sales are recorded in one of the nation's approximately 500 MLS systems of which REALTORS are members.)  

Right now, condominiums represent a strong buying opportunity for first time buyers--in Long Beach active condo listings have a median price of $482,444, and an average list price at $679,259; single family homes in Long Beach have a median price of $929,990 and an average list price at $1,358,262.

For more information about 2021 buyers and sellers, see NAR's annual report summary.

Where did sellers move to in 2021?  Top destination states were Florida and Billings, Montana, while California fell into the outflow category, except for the City of Beverly Hills, which was the fourth highest city in the country ranked for inflow of residents (and the only city in California), according to the migration report at MoveBuddha.

For more information about current market listings, whether you're a buyer looking for a property to buy, or you would like to know more about market selling prices in your area, please contact me or visit my website at www.juliahuntsman.com for the ability to search for all listings on the MLS--updated daily.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Mid-Year Forecast for California's Housing Market - 2021

Home in Alamitos Heights

In his July 28, 2021 Report, California Association of Realtors economist Jordan Levine recapped what's going on the real estate market so far this year:

1. The share of first time buyers is the highest in 10 years, fueled by low, low interest rates--two of every five homes was sold to first time buyers--while there are fewer repeat buyers in the market because fewer current homeowners are selling.

2. First time buyers are also more affluent:  33% of these buyers have 20 percent down payments, or higher, while only 10% are using zero down loans.

3. Vacation and second home sales are highest in four years.

4. The first half of 2020 ended with a 33% increase in home sales, and a 37% decrease in inventory, making a very competitive market for buyers.

5.  Statewide, 71% of home sales closed over asking price.

6. Despite COVID, 20 California cities grew by 40% last year, with Big Bear, Malibu, and Montecito being the top 3.

7. And 30 cities almost doubled in sales growth in 2021 compared to 2020:  Palos Verdes Estates (148%), Signal Hill (109%), South Pasadena (116%), to name several.

8.  The fastest growing sales were in San Francisco area and Southern California as of June 2021.

9. In May 2021, condo sales rebounded almost 160% by June 2021.

However, housing supply and overall affordability continue to be issues, and the need for more housing is still urgent.  Sales are expected to slow, there may be more inventory (which overall is still low) but the median price is not predicted to go down for the remainder of 2021. 

If you're a local homeowner thinking about selling, please contact me for an evaluation of your home, units or condo.

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Is the California Real Estate Market Going to Fall in 2021?

California has just experienced the strongest house price ever recorded in May 2021.

In this housing presentation in May for Orange County Realtors, a lot of the  current market issues were covered by the CAR Economist Jordan Levine.

Statewide, prices are up overall $100,000 since 2006, and so are mortgage payments.  The highest dollar amounts cashed out in home equity were in the 2004-2007 years (as much as $80 billion in one year), and in 2020-2021 another increase in the $40-$50 billion range is here, explaining what?  Remodels? helping the adult children with their down payment?

Even with lower interest rates, affordability is not keeping up; 27% of Californians can buy a median priced home, compared to 50% in 2012. And building permits for single family homes has not increased significantly in 10 years--about 50,000 issued in 2020 compared to 150,000 permits issued in 1988. However, as affordability rate declines, the 2021 median home price is predicted to be $712,000 for the state, and in some areas is already higher than that. 

For a home evaluation, please contact me via text or email, even if you're not thinking of selling in the near future, an idea of your home's value whether condo, SFR or multi-unit, is wise to keep track of.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

A Strong Percentage of Homes Are Selling Above Asking Price

In January, 2021, over 56% of homes statewide sold over the asking price.  This is according to a Southern California April presentation by a California Association of Realtors economist as shown in the slides to the right.

The over-asking statistics may vary in areas, so for example, in a combined look at 180 sales of condos and houses between 4/8 and 4/15 in the 10 cities of Bellflower, Cypress, Harbor City, Long Beach, Carson, Torrance, Lakewood, Lomita, San Pedro, and Signal Hill*:

71% (approx.) or 127 homes out of 180 sold over asking.  

7% (approx.) or 12 homes sold at original list price.

19% (approx.) or 35 homes sold under original list price.

In lower prices starting at $300,000, the increase may be $900 to $15,000; in the $500,000 range the increase in closing price grew in some cases to over $50,000 higher, and in the $1,000,000+ category it may $150,000 higher.  However, one single family home listed in Long Beach for $595,000 recently closed at $700,000. 

For sellers such overbids may help them more easily into their next purchase, but for the huge number of first time buyers looking for opportunity with very low interest rates, there is much frustration. On many properties, multiple offers abound, often 15-20 offers from which the seller may pick, sometimes outright, sometimes countering back to a select group of buyers.

In a March 2021 Google Consumer poll, 64% of sellers thought it was a good time to  sell, while 28% of buyers thought it was a good time to buy. In 2020 however, 44% of buyers had more than a 20% down payment, and obviously many of them have the ability to bid some much higher prices to beat out the competition.  This leads to another issue:  appraisals.  Not all overbid prices are appraising, leading buyers to come up with more money, and how some are doing this is detailed in this article about the appraisal gap.

Who's not buying so much? Rental property investors, as COVID issues came to the frontline.

What will make the situation easier in the future?  Rising interest rates, more housing inventory, and an ongoing improving economy.
 

*as reported in CRMLS 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

California Housing Market Prediction for 2021

The California Association of Realtors with Leslie Appleton-Young presented the annual market outlook (this year it was all online, so we missed our annual Expo and Luncheon as we sat at our laptops), which at the very end always gets to the final price and sales volume predictions for the coming year.  So to break all suspense, I'll show that slide first (there were 100 slides covering the entire state's regional markets and economic conditions, I'm just hitting the highlights), which shows the predicted increase in the California home sales market to be 3.3 percent, at a median price of $690,000+ (up from $476,000 in 2015).

 

California Housing Market 2021 

• The impact of COVID-19 seemed to cause buyers to get out there and buy, rather than stay home, so prices in many areas have jumped considerably as inventory in many areas was still quite low, especially in the affordable range (something under $600,000 in the So Cal metro regions).  
• The lowest mortgage interest rates since long before 1971 allowed more buyers to purchase at the upper end their loan qualifications.  
• By August, sales and prices were up, inventory was down statewide to 2.1 months, but keep in mind inventory has generally been low since 2012, and 1-2 months inventory in some So Cal areas is not uncommon.  
• The total home sales in August was the highest in 10 years, 2005-2006 was the last time California saw a much higher sales volume extending up to 600,000 residential units. 
• The share of first time buyers was the highest in 10 years and investor buyers the lowest since 2001.
• More sellers leaving California, highest since 2005 (hello, Proposition 19); Los Angeles and Bay area sellers are mostly moving to the Inland Empire and other cheaper counties; the Inland Empire and other cheaper counties are moving out of state
  
• Potentially 600,000 foreclosures nationwide, perhaps 60,000 in California, due to job loss, etc.
• California is the 5th largest economy, with $175 billion in annual exports--economy still strong.
  

 

CA worst case scenario 2021

 For the complete presentation which goes into much greater detail, please contact me, very easy to email.  For an market valuation of your residential or income property, please contact me for the latest information in your area.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996