Top Concerns for the 2016 Market

Although the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau states "no problem", many REALTORs are experiencing delayed closing with the new TRID (TILA/RESPA Integrated Disclosure) rules implemented October 3rd.  For about half of those responding to a survey, closings took up to 40 days to close.  While this may not be of concern to all-cash buyers, buyers obtaining financing and sellers in contract with those buyers may have to be prepared for taking extra time to close, at least while the industry is in the earlier phase of these new mortgage/escrow rules.

Some years ago FHA revised their rules on eligible condo HOAs--Since an entire association was required to become "FHA-approved", and for only two years at a time, the number of approved condos has declined severely.  This reduces the number of eligible buyers for a condominium severely and is a factor everywhere for FHA condo buyers.  Association members are advised to take up this issue with their boards -HUD provides a resource for current status - and apply for renewal.  Some lenders are willing to provide this service without cost, especially if there is an  active buyer for that complex.  Contact me for more information.  VA approvals for condos are also required for VA buyers, and these are another important source of condo buyers.   However, for buyers obtaining FNMA loans there are no restrictions on percent of owner-occupied units, a major qualifier on FHA loans. 

Tight inventories are still a factor nationwide, as buyers can attest to after they have experienced multiple offer situations.  Buyers who are fully approved and prepared to make realistic offers have more success, although the price range under $500,000 in many Southern California cities is competitive.  Below is a trend chart for "months of inventory" for Long Beach.  Neighboring cities are similar.  A 6-month supply (how long the inventory would last at the current rate of sale) is considered the norm, but has not been the norm for several years. The chart shows 1.5 months.


Tight credit standards continue to affect sales.  There was a time when a 700 FICO score meant smooth sailing, but the average FICO score on all closed loans in the third quarter was 723, the lowest level in at least four years, according to Ellie Mae. Two years ago, the average score for denied applications was 729.  In other words, keep up your credit score but minimizing debt and no delinquencies.

Low appraisals continue to be problematic.  This is a large subject by itself, but the short summary is: Find a good REALTOR to work with, whether you're a buyer or a seller, and avoid over-inflated pricing.

More Trends:

Cash sales continue to decrease; buyers are interested in walkable areas (check the WalkScore for your neighborhood), "green" homes, or older homes with upgraded environmental efficiency, are on the buyer lists in many areas, new home sales are up in some areas (however, older Southern California cities are less impacted by this demographic), rents may increase by as much as 8% in some areas, so buying at today's lower interest rates will still be cheaper than renting.

For a free property search, go to www.juliahuntsman.com Property search page.

Please contact me for a more specific home analysis for your property.  As a licensed REALTOR for over 20 years, I can help whether you have a home or investment property sell.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

New Transaction Closing Rules with CFPB - Part II

Note:  The new start date is October 1, 2015. 6/28/2015.
Mark August 1, 2015 as the date on which transactions will be impacted!

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is an independent agency which operates withoutCongressional supervision, one of the few such entities in the country, and is considered a least accountable agency (by just about everybody including Congress).  It oversees banks and financial institutions, credit unions, students loan, credit card companies, payday lending companies, mortgages, foreclosures.  (It resulted from the Dodd Frank Act which came into place as a result of the economic crash, and its director was appointed by President Obama.)

The CFPB is not federally funded, but instead issues fines to banks for their bad behavior:
Wells Fargo - $24 million; Chase - $11.7 million, NewDay Financial - $2 million; and just the other day, per their website "Green Tree to Pay $48 Million in Borrower Restitution and $15 Million Fine for Servicing Failures".  Yes, there have been failures by the banks, but how we got to a bureau that seems to have no oversight seems to be borrowing a page from the bank failure book.

But for now, consumers, lenders, escrow, title and real estate agents are at the beginning of changes will are most certainly to lengthen the average 30-day transaction to 10-15 days longer.

New terms:
Escrow=settlement agent
Lender=creditor
Day loan docs are signed=consummation day
Close of escrow day=settlement day
LE=loan estimate (no longer a good faith estimate)
CD=Closing Disclosure (replaces HUD-1)

Buyers and sellers, get familiar with all terms but know that "CD" is a 5-page disclosure which must be received by the borrower a minimum of 3 business days before signing of loan documents.  It doesn't matter if you can read and sign in 3 hours, you must wait 3 business days before loan documents can be signed.  What if you ask the seller, and the seller agrees, to compensate the buyer $350.00 towards the buyer's closing costs during escrow?  The borrower receives a new CD and must wait 3 business days.  If the lender decides to mail out the CD to the borrower instead of allowing digital signature time, then the lenders will give a total of 7 business days from send out.

Sellers, I can only say this:  Make reasonable repairs, including all carbon monoxide and smoke detector placements where required,  prior to listing to avoid delays with appraisers calling out such repairs, which will require a second visit by the appraiser, and which also costs the borrower more, in order to avoid these delays.
Buyers, If you decide to make an offer on a property which requires numerous or even just a few, repairs, be prepared for a longer transaction, because everytime a change is made, a new 5-page CD goes out to the borrower from the lender.  You can see how the time starts adding up, going well beyond the existing 17 and 21 days for buyer to investigate and remove contingencies.
Other examples of changes which will require 3 business day re-disclosure:
Changes in APR; changes in the loan product; addition of a pre-payment penalty.
Realtors must be prepared for these changes and be able to work with their clients on these timelines.

A sample calendar provided to me recently shows Day 1 starting on a Monday (Saturdays are included as business days, Sundays are excluded), going all the way through to Day 38 in a NORMAL transaction showing the lender's schedule, but this calendar did not take into account what else could be happening between the buyer and seller during the various contract contingency period, which is how further issues and additional time periods could come up. There is much that will be found out on a practical level when the time comes, because there are still unknowns in these new requirements.
Additional issues:  Lenders may refuse to work with certain escrow companies, and therefore buyer and seller may not be able to choose in some circumstances, because the lender may force both parties to transfer the file to another company.  Please remember, California escrow companies already are "vetted" and responsible to the Department of Business Oversight which maintains their own rigorous standards.

At this point, consumers need to change some of their expectations, both with their loans and the property transaction itself, and who they may be able to select for services.
These are nation-wide changes, not just something happening in one county or one state.  Some industry professionals are saying they've never seen anything like this during their 30 or 40 years in real estate (and they don't mean it in a nice way), so what happens after August 1 will be different--that much we know.

Some Lenders Are Checking Borrowers' Social Media Accounts

Along with new lending rules for buyers and lenders that came into effect on January 1, there's more to think about, too.  According to an article in the Wall Street Journal, a buyer's Facebook and Twitter data may help a lending company determine a borrower's creditworthiness.  Ironically, these same lending companies may be backed with venture funding from Google Ventures or Accell Partners (early Facebook investor). 

Social media accounts are a way to double check a borrower's job information (see your LinkedIn account), or there's a post about how you got fired on Facebook.  And E-Bay could be a great place to check your small business reviews by others. Right now this practice of social media review is primarily used by smaller loan sources, but Fair Isaac Corp. (your FICO credit score company) is considering incorporating social media, and since it provides credit scoring for the vast majority of lender decisions, that could have a huge impact.

Lendup, a San Francisco lending source, is one company currently using a mix of credit bureau and social media information to help assess borrowers' risk and verify identities. Applicants are voluntarily sharing their Facebook, Twitter and other social sites which Lendup is using, although they don't require it.  It just helps on the road towards loan approval.  This is a company backed by Google Ventures and which expects to make 300,000 loans in 2014.

At Moven, a mobile-only bank, customers can link up their social media accounts to learn about their own financial behavior and make payments to friends. The President of Moven says social-media activity will be one factor used in lending decision on their future loans. He believes social media data says more about customers than their FICO score.

Kabbage Inc, a loan source for small businesses, requires a customer to link at least one account such as Amazon, e-Bay, or Xero for underwriting decisions.  Kabbage, Inc., is looking at how many "likes" a customer receives, and what reviews are saying about the borrower's business.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and the Federal Trade Commission are taking a close look at privacy issues. If, for example, a consumer reporting company such as Experience or Equifax has inaccurate information on a borrower, the consumer may dispute that information under the Fair Credit Reporting Act. But  companies using social media in their lending decisions don't have to verify the information about you because it isn't reported to third parties, so there apparently is little or no regulation when it comes to this type of  "background check" on a borrower.

" 'There are privacy concerns. People don't understand the implications or why they may be considered undesirable' " for credit, said Jeffrey Chester, executive director of the Center for Digital Democracy in Washington, who is calling for regulation."

See the full article at http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304773104579266423512930050?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702304773104579266423512930050.html

Ability to Repay and Qualified Mortgage Rules May Affect You in 2014

New loan rules were made law last year and will take effect on January 10, 2014.  The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is a federal agency created in 2011 as part of the  Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in response to the financial crisis that evolved starting in 2007.  As a result, new loan borrowers are going to be subjected to what many think will be onerous and perhaps unnecessary new loan guidelines which may affect the housing market sales volume in the future. And, as of right now, not all future guidelines are yet known and may not be completely settled on until the end of 2013.

The CFPB has jurisdiction over banks, credit unions, mortgage servicing operations, payday lenders, and more.

Buyers who are obtaining financing should start learning what this means for home purchases.  The link goes to a 6-page brochure outlining essential facts about new loan rules established so far.

The lender must now perform an ability to repay (ATR) as part of the loan approval process, by looking at your assets and coming to the determination you have the ability to repay.  Next, the borrower hoping to qualify for a Qualified Mortgage (QM) -- those loans with the best rate and terms -- may not get a loan with interest only feature, negative amortization, generally no balloon payments, or loan terms longer than 30 years.  A thirty-year loan, by the way, was considered radical back during the Great Depression when up until that time it was standard for banks to be able to call their loans after 5 years, or continue them as they saw first for another 5 years.  There can be no excess upfront points or fees.  Yes, a borrower could still obtain a mortgage out of these guidelines, but the lender on those loans, but a lender who makes follows QM guidelines gets certain legal protections if the borrower defaults on the loan.

What's the big deal about these loans?  Well, for a while, governmental agencies wanted only 20% down loans to qualify, but that proposal was defeated.  More recently, there are six governmental agencies backing a new proposal that 30% down loans will be able to obtain a QM.  See Kenneth Harney's article: http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20131020,0,6931943.story#axzz2j4RPAzgO

One of the results of stricter guidelines already is a much higher percentage of FHA loans in the marketplace compared to past history.  What the future will be is not known, but naysayers believe that requiring 30% down payments for non-FHA loans will definitely impact housing sales. 
The Mortgage Bankers Assn. of America (which strongly opposes the 30% plan) estimates that only 18% of people who purchased homes during 2012 would have been qualified for their mortgages under the alternative proposed by the regulators.