The State of the Nation's Housing 2019: Harvard University Annual Report

What It Takes to Buy a Home in the U.S.

This forty-four page annual report describes housing issues on a national basis, so this is not the place to look for your local neighborhood or city stats.  Just keep these points in mind for your general knowledge.  The entire report may be viewed at the end of this post.

Housing supply has been discussed constantly, especially in California.  There was actually an oversupply of housing between 2000-2010, but since then builders have been slow to catch up, especially in the last 8 years.  The report goes on to list various reasons for this: builder hesitance, labor shortages, new housing being built for the high end of the market instead of lower end, rising  cost of materials make it difficult to build for the middle market, and objections to high density development in many areas.

But homeownership nationally is up to 64.4 percent, with the largest increase in the 25-39 age group, in spite of worsening affordability.  In California in 2017, homeowners numbered 7,137,000, at 54.9 percent of the population of 13,005,000 households. California ranked the highest of all states in the nation for number of homeowners, but states such as Delaware, Iowa, Michigan, Utah, and others, ranked higher in percent of homeowners, with New York being slightly lower in homeowner percentage compared to California, per the US Census Bureau, 2017 Community Survey.

The millennial and baby-boomer generations will be the two largest groups for housing demand:  "These two large generations will propel growth in 35–44 year-olds and lift the number of older adults to new heights." The 65 and older crowd  will grow by 11.1 million, and 35-44 year olds will grow by 2.9 million, all in the next decade.  This will be an increase of 8.4 million households for baby boomers, who are largely expected to age in place.  The demand for entry level homes will increase for the 35-44 year olds, the group with the most children.

The highest affordability rates are in metro areas where the home values are less than 3 times the income, and the median-income home could afford 84% of recently sold homes.  These markets are primarily in the midwest and northeast, where as the California coastal areas have home values approximately 6 times the income.

Assuming the current housing supply issues, and the continued demand for more housing, house prices and rents are expected to continue an upward trend.  And the constraints on housing development must be addressed.  In 2018, single family starts rose 9 percent in the West.

For the full report, go to the State of the Nation's Housing site.



Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Every Day There is Another Story That Housing is Recovering, and Then It's Not: Read More

What is the real story on short sale numbers and borrower delinquencies? The story seems to vary on a daily basis.

But according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, which keeps track of these statistics, the delinquency/foreclosure rate was still 11.33% as of the end of the 1st quarter of 2012.  That's the lowest since 2008, but is still a lot of homeowners on a national basis.

If You're Waiting For Prices to Come Down ....

Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve decided to leave the federal funds rate alone, for the time being.

"The Fed is in a quandary. The economy has slowed, led by a decline in home sales and rising inflation, stemming primarily from increasing energy prices. The Fed's primary role in relation to the economy is to combat inflation and preserve economic growth. To combat inflation, the Fed will ultimately have to increase interest rates in coming months. What Does This Mean to You?"

Here's what my colleagues at You Should Own have to say:

"If you're looking to buy a house, consider these key points:

• Home prices in some areas are at five-year lows, while personal incomes in that same period have increased.
• Homes are more affordable for many right now, particularly first-time home buyers.
• Sellers are extremely motivated and many buyers in our area have benefited from the unbelievable deals that exist today.
• Experts foresee a strong rebound in home prices when the economy
  begins to recover, according to a new report from the Joint Center for Housing
  Studies.
• That means buyers today will be sitting on valuable properties tomorrow."

Much is made of the recent foreclosures and subprime loan issues that have stalled the market, but due to the overall streamlining of loan underwriting due to uniform credit scoring and automated underwriting, the largest rise in homeownership occurred between 1994 and 2001. According to Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies' 2008 report, unless another one million homeowners lose ownership it will not dip below the 2000 level of ownership. Even if that does occur, "once the oversupply of housing is worked off and home prices start to recover, the use of automated underwriting tools, a return to more traditional mortgage products, and the strength of underlying demand should put the number of homeowners back on the rise."

It's been noted for several years now that the formation of new households due to changes in the population will impact the demand for housing over time (including the current Harvard report), so I'm still betting that "buyers today will be sitting on valuable properties tomorrow."

Long Beach long beach real estate 'Voice this!