Drop in Interest Rates

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.79% to 6.74% over the seven-day period ended July 13, the first time in five weeks the rate has declined, according to Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell from 6.44% to 6.37%, the average rate for five-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgages declined from 6.39% to 6.33%, and the average rate for one-year Treasury-indexed ARMs decreased from 5.82% to 5.75%, Freddie Mac reported.
Fees and points averaged 0.6 of a point for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages and one-year ARMs, 0.4 of a point for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages, and 0.5 of a point for hybrid ARMs. 'June's employment report caught financial markets off guard,' said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac's chief economist. 'In response, long-term bond yields eased a bit this week.' A year ago, the average 30-year and 15-year fixed rates were 5.66% and 5.25%, respectively, and the average one-year ARM rate was 4.39%, Freddie Mac said. "

Housing Market Cools in SoCal - Los Angeles Times

"DataQuick said that the median sales price for all homes sold in Los Angeles County last month rose 8.8% to $517,000. The county's median had been posting annual gains of 10% or more until recently." San Diego's median price for June dropped 1%, the first time in 10 years that market has lowered. Sales in Los Angeles County have decreased, although the median price increased in June.

NAR: Home Sales Expected to Stabilize In the Months Ahead

"Don't look for any big shifts one way or the other", says NAR economist David Lereah. Higher increases in interest rates are a concern, but median home prices nationally will go up about 5.3 percent overall. Sellers should understand that "abnormal" price growth has cooled. While buyers may see larger price decreases in some market and with some properties, they should also understand that certain price decreases may be expected if the seller has overreached the current market, but that it doesn't mean there will be a huge decrease overall in the market. The median price in the six Southern California counties has not dropped during the Spring (see earlier post).

Cooling Home Market Spurs Interest in Foreclosure Sales

With a slowing in the market, perhaps a stabilizing in the real estate market, foreclosures seem to have a little more allure. But there are things to know: websites listing foreclosures may be out of date, or may list properties that haven't yet met all the legal requirements for sale. In other words, approach foreclosure properties and foreclosure websites with care. Just because it's listed on a website doesn't mean the property will actually sell; and if a buyer does purchase at auction there are significant risks involved. The thought that a foreclosure property can be bought below market doesn't work out that way, because if a bank finally takes it back after completing the foreclosure process, those properties are usually listed at market. Why would the bank sell for less? Read the Wall Street Journal article for their complete story on investigating this sector of real estate sales.

Inman News reports that the Federal Reserve's recent tone hinting at possibly no further rate increases may have changed after its June 29 statement. 10-year Treasury note rates declined, so did mortgage rates which closely follow the Treasury notes and yields on long-term government bonds. Later positive predictions of June job growth may have the effect, though, of another increase in August by the Federal Reserve, which will ultimately impact the mortgage rates. Be prepared.

I've had to reconstruct the blog. Previous links and features will be added again.

Why the Housing Boom Will Stay

Harvard University's Joint Center for Housing Studies points out the main pillars of the housing market in its 2006 report, where downturns in the market will not outweigh the long term factors:

Several factors are at work.

Booming household growth. The nation will add 1.37 million new households this year. Part of this is natural population increase but this has also been bolstered by foreign migrants.

Graying boomers. As boomers have aged and prospered, they have begun to buy vacation or second homes in increasing numbers. This trend will widen as they near retirement.

Changing household composition. Social and cultural changes add to the number of households. There are more single-person households than in the past. Fewer adult children live with their parents; they establish their own homes. Increases in divorce rates result in the division of multi-person households into smaller ones. Family sizes have shrunk; a community may have about the same population but more households.

Minority gains. Ownership among formerly under-represented minorities has increased. Black and Latin home ownership has always trailed that of whites but the past 10 years has seen minorities making great progress.

UCLA: No Decline in Prices

This slower market is not a sign of a recession because the Southern California and national economy is strong and there is no "vulnerability" in the job market. The speculative demand got way out of hand, which drove prices up even higher, but the speculative buyer has departed the market. Speculators enter and leave the market suddenly, since they lack the emotional component about their properties that the usual residential seller has.
So the bottom line is: "We do not predict a recession, nor do we predict a substantial decline in average nominal home prices," said Ryan Ratcliff, a UCLA economist. "The forecast is based on two arguments. There is not enough vulnerability in the usual sources of employment loss to create a recession, and the historical record suggests that average home prices do not usually fall without this kind of job loss."

Federal Reserve Increases Rate

Fed raises key interest rate to 5.25% in 17th consecutive increase on fears of inflation risks. The recent increases in bank mortgage rates areprobably a reflection of this anticipated increase, following pastpatterns."Recent indicators suggest that economic growth is moderating from itsquite strong pace earlier this year, partly reflecting a gradual coolingof the housing market and the lagged effects of increases in interestrates and energy prices," according to a committee statement."Readings on core inflation have been elevated in recent months," thecommittee stated. "Ongoing productivity gains have held down the rise inunit labor costs, and inflation expectations remain contained. However,the high levels of resource utilization and of the prices of energy andother commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures."In a related action, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors unanimouslyapproved a 25-basis-point increase in the discount rate to 6.25 percent. See my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com.

California Median Home Price

According to California Association of Realtors, "The median price of an existing single-family home in California increased 8 percent in May and sales decreased 21.1 percent compared with the same period a year ago, C.A.R. recently reported. "This is the first time since November 2001 that the median price did not increase by double digits, reflecting the return to the more balanced market that we have anticipated," said C.A.R. President Vince Malta. "Interest rates, while still historically low, continue to impact sales as did the inventory of homes for sale, which reached nearly a six-month supply in May.

"According to the report, the median price of an existing, single-family detached home in California during May 2006 was $564,430, an 8 percent increase over the revised $522,530 median for May 2005. The May 2006 median price increased 0.5 percent compared with April's revised $561,750 median price. Also in May, closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled 488,260 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, down 21.1 percent compared with the sales pace recorded one year earlier and down 5.6 percent from home resale activity in April. "

Dataquick, on the other hand, has reported in June, 2006, and confirmed their report that May's California median home price was $469,000, "a new record"-- a mistake?
See my website and search local MLS properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com.