The Best Buyer's Market in 35 Years

In April of 1973, mortgage rates were about the same as they are today. Since that time, we have only had mortgage rates this low during 2001 and 2002, the height of the seller's markets where there was little inventory. In the last two major buyer's markets, one in the early 1980s and the other in the early 1990s, the rates were much higher. When I started in the business in 1994, interest rates were at 9.5 percent, (and they were at 18 to 21 percent in 1980). In the early 1990s, the rates were hovering in the 11 to 12 percent range. Thus, today's buyer's market, with exceptionally low mortgage rates plus a substantial supply of inventory, is the best time in decades to purchase.

(Thanks for the plug from Berniece Ross!)

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Water Wise Landscaping in Southern California

This is the time of year when thoughts turn to outdoor lawns and gardens. This year, some planning, and awareness of new laws, can save you some money.

Water conservation is a growing focus in a land that used to be a desert before all the swimming pools were added. Los Angeles' Metropolitan Water District developed a BeWaterWise website several years and (I still have a few CDs) for native plant gardening, classes, and irrigation systems installation. See the Water Calculator to assist with your climate's and soil's watering needs on a season basis.



The City of Long Beach recently passed an ordinance for saving water, and limits landscape watering to specific days (Monday, Thursday and Saturday) and times. Pressure washers (under pulldown menu at "Water Conservation") are to be used instead of hoses if absolutely necessary for outdoor use. The city Water Department is sponsoring landscaping classes during April, May and June focusing on irrigation systems and installation, and "California-friendly" plants. Certain neighborhoods are already popping up with water-efficient landscaping, and looking very attractive. There are also a few rebate programs offered by the City for using certain water-saving toilets, rotating sprinkler nozzles which use 20% less water and reduce runoff, and high-efficiency clothes washers (HECWs). In Orange County, rebates are also offered for synthetic turf and timers.

Long Beach Market Absorption Rates

The absorption rate is how long the current inventory will remain on the market at the current rate of selling. In all price ranges shown, there are more properties currently in escrow than have closed escrow in the last 30 days. Hopefully that means that the economic stimulus package and temporary increase in loan amounts is bringing a surge in activity.

Here are several different listing and selling price range categories for all properties (commercial/residential but mostly residential including large multiunits) in Long Beach listed on the MLS as of 4/9/2008:

$1 million plus listing price:
260 active listings; 10 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 107 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 26 months. But in this price range there are currently 26 in escrow (backup and pending).

$600,000-$699,000 listing price:
207 active listings; 17 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 76 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 12 months. There are 34 in escrow (backup and pending).

$500,000-$599,000 listing price:
296 active listings; 31 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 98 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 9.5 months. Currently there are 56 in escrow.

$400,000-$499,000 listing price:
433 active listings; 41 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 87 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 10.5 months. Currently there are 88 in escrow.

$300,000-$399,000 listing price:
476 active listings; 29 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 75 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 16 months. Currently there are 75 in escrow.

Per the MLS, there are 2664 active listings and 443 properties in escrow in Long Beach.

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Distressed Listings in Long Beach, Cerritos and Huntington Beach

Some buyers are thinking that foreclosure and/or short sale properties (they owe more than they will net from the sale) are in every neighborhood where the buyer would most like to live. Not true, and it's been the source of misunderstanding, and sometimes frustration, for people who might otherwise make a move right now. A short sale is not necessarily the way to go: There are "normal" listings of non-distressed properties priced just as advantageously; plus, a short sale is in the hands of the bank, not the seller, and the bank. Fathom7's 3/31/08 entry on the Redfin site says, "Add to this the matter of the short sale taking a long (sometimes interminable time to complete) and these properties become amazingly undesirable. What I don't understand is that rather than take a rational offer for the home, the bank and the still-present-owners appear to prefer foreclosure over accepting a short offer on the short sale. somebody is getting something but nothing gets accomplished for the buyer," (It's true, some banks are not clearly understanding that foreclosure is usually a more expensive process than accepting a buyer's offer and taking a loss), and,
"Here's one example of what I have been dealing with: I have had interest in a particular house – the asking was outside of what I wanted to spend for that house (too many compromises for the premium price). Then , the price took a drop. No sooner had I discovered this when I learned that it too is a short sale. The “listed” price is also short of what is owed and thus is not the real price the bank is going to take. This one too is likely on it's way to foreclosure."

First of all, the short sale status should always be disclosed up front in the MLS so that it's not a surprise to the buyer (however, the price reduction could have been the beginning of the short sale), and second, Fathom7's observation that it's on its way to foreclosure is probably very accurate, because if there's a non-distressed property at or near the same list price, it's going to be an easier pick; third, there are plenty of distressed properties in some areas, but maybe not in the ones you want.

Distressed properties may be ranging from 1.5% of the market up to a 33% or more, in different areas.

Market samples:

Zip code 90803 (Bluff Park, Belmont Shore, Belmont Heights, Naples) - Single family: 5 properties listed as short pay and/or pre-foreclosure, out of 109 single family listings, or 5.5% of the MLS listings are distressed. Condos: 6 properties listed as short pay/NOD (notice of default), out of a total of 55 listings, or about 11% are distressed condos.

Zip code 90802 (downtown Long Beach, Alamitos Beach) - Single family: 8 properties listed in short pay and/or NOD, out of 19 houses, or 42% are distressed. Condos: 36 short pay properties, an additional 6 also as pre-foreclosure, are listed out of 278 condos, or about 15% are distressed properties. (This zip code has a higher percentage of multi-unit housing compared to other areas in Long Beach.)

Zip code 90807 (California Heights, Bixby Knolls and adjacent areas) - Single family: 26 short pay/NOD properties out of 115 houses, or approximately 23% of houses are distressed listings. Condos - About 14 short pay/NODs out of 42 listings, or 33% are distressed condos.

Zip code 90814 - (Bluff Heights, part of Belmont Heights, Carroll Park, Rose Park South) - Single family: About 7 out of 45 MLS listings are short pay/NOD listings, or 16%. Condos - 1 short pay/NOD listing out of 39, or less than 1.5% is a distressed property.

Long Beach - There are a total 1158 single family listings (including the above zip codes) for the entire city in the MLS, 291 are listed as short pays, or 25% are distressed listings.

Huntington Beach - For the entire city, 462 single family homes are listed, 67 are short pays, about 15% of the total market -- this is spread across 4 zip code areas, where some zips may have a higher percentage. Condos - 256 listings, 27 listed as short pays, about 11% of all condo listings.

Cerritos - 90703 zip code - Single family: 112 listings of which 25 are short pay, or 22% are distressed listings; 26 condo listings, 5 are short pays, about 19% are distressed listings.

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Long Beach/Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Homeowner Vacancy Rate

Some markets, such as Florida, have been hit harder than others in the current market. Each quarter the U.S. Census Bureau publishes renter and homeowner vacancy rates; the 2007 4th quarter rate for homeowner vacancy of 2.8% is the highest since it began collecting this information in the 1960's (see comment at end). But the 4th quarter is also typically the slowest time for the housing market in general--fewer home sales, fewer people moving due to the holidays, or taking a listed home off the market temporarily for the holiday period.

Not all markets are the same: the Long Beach-Los Angeles-Santa Ana corridor rate was 1.6%, much lower than Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Orlando, or Indianapolis, for example, yet we rarely hear about those markets in the news media, but rather how difficult the California market is due to the number of foreclosures, which are not the only reason a home may be vacant. A home may also be vacant due being not yet sold and the owner has moved on, or a home being converted to a rental, or has second-home or seasonal use, which is a growing factor among the baby-boomer generation. The West as a region showed a higher number of seasonal vacancies in the 2007 4th quarter than in 2006, while the overall year-round vacancy rate in the West remained the same for both periods. See the Census Bureau chart. The WSJ Online comment that vacancy rates are "matching" the highest level since the Census Bureau started collecting this information is misleading--since the Census Bureau in its own comment says that areas are redefined every 10 years, and states which sets of years are not comparable to each other, i.e., 2005 and later data is not comparable to data prior to 1986 (see bottom of chart page).

Also from: The Wall Street Journal Online, March 21, 2008

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East Long Beach Still Sells

Zip code 90815 (excluding Park Estates and Bixby Hill areas) closed 37 transactions since January 1 to today's date in prices ranged from $355,000 to $715,000 for a single family home (data from the Southern California MLS)--one property reflected as a short sale (this data is only recently being reflected in the MLS). The same period last year closed 51 sales ranging from $476,000 to $930,000.


Currently, in these same 90815 areas of east Long Beach, Los Altos, Stratford Square, Lakewood Plaza, the Ranchos, La Marina, and Artcraft Manor, there are 83 active listings ranging in price from $380,000 to $1,095,000.


About 18 of these are impacted by short pay situations (meaning the seller is requesting the lender to accept a loan loss), however this area is far less impacted on the whole than other areas which may be as high as one-third of the active listings will require lender approval of the seller's short pay request.


It's opportunity time if you're ready to make a move! For a buyer- or seller-directed property search, please go to http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/, or go to http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ to search properties on the market by zip code, or price!



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Staging to Sell

If you're thinking about the things you need to do to prepare your home for sale, here is a video on the essentials. This video demonstrates how to create space through eliminating collectibles, or moving your furniture around.



http://www.expertrealestatetips.net/

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California FHA Loan Limits Now Up to $729,750!

A new and long-awaited temporary loan amount increase from $362,790 to the conventional loan maximum of $729,750 passed yesterday (until end of 2008)!

Per the Los Angeles Time: "The California counties at the new maximum level for FHA loans are Alameda, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Marin, Monterey, Napa, Orange, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Ventura. "

This could make FHA loans available to 30,000 additional Californians. FHA loans are characterized by low down payments of 3% and not as driven by FICO scores as conventional loans are.

Additional loan limits in Orange and Los Angeles Counties are:

1 unit 729,750
2 units 934,200
3 units 1,129,250
4 units 1,403,400

If you are considering purchasing a new house, condo or units for yourself, please contact me for a lender referral. Not all lenders specialize in FHA loans, so it's important to find someone who is experienced in these government loans. Call me at 562-896-2609, or you can go online in the meantime and search properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ or try a new type of property search at http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/ .

Tightening the Lending Standards--Is Your FICO Below 680?

Here's more on the trend that's been going on since late last summer: tightening lending standards, and Wells Fargo Bank is just one example as it tightens its lending standards in 200 markets across the country. If you want to buy, you must get your loan lined up before making an offer. This has always been considered the normal procedure for buyers. Now it's an absolutely essential must for any borrower. Conventional loan guidelines have changed drastically since 2007 to the point higher down payments may be required and stated income loans are now off-limits in some markets.

A Wells Fargo internal memo identified 30 markets in California alone as "at risk". Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (government-chartered mortgage financers) have surcharges for borrowers with credit scores below 680, a previously acceptable FICO score, and are requiring 5 percent down payment in markets identified as "declining". PMI (private mortgage insurance required on many loans less than 20% down) will be harder to obtain on loans with less than 3% down payment, and MGIC Investment Corp., a leading provider of private mortgage insurance, is discontinuing coverage of loans with down payments of less than 5% in 30 markets, which includes the entire state of California. So the message is: Don't count on that 100% financing or stated income loan in some instances, they're harder to find.

If finding a home is important, taking the time to invest in education about financing one is equally important.

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Mortgage Debt Relief Bill in California: Not Quite as Forgiving

Like the housing market, debt relief is a little more expensive in California.

On the state level, Senate Bill (SB) 1055, authored by Sen. Michael J. Machado, passed the Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee on an 8-0 vote. The measure would help California taxpayers whose lenders have forgiven a portion of their mortgage debt, by allowing them to exclude the forgiven debt from their incomes for state income tax purposes. Under existing state tax law, forgiven debt on mortgages is taxable to the borrower as ordinary income for the year in which the debt is forgiven. Per the Franchise Tax Board:

"If it passes, SB 1055 will conform to specified provisions of the federal Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 – with a notable difference. For California taxpayers, the period of excludable discharges would be from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2008. The federal period of excludable discharges is from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009."