National Association of Realtors® 2014 Housing Prediction

 The annual National Association of Realtors® announced the annual housing prediction at its conference this November in San Francisco. Housing price is predicted to increase by 6 percent in 2014, banks are criticized for being too restrictive on mortgages, there is still too low of a housing inventory, and with rising mortgage rates refinancings will drop significantly.

In a presentation about the housing market on a nation-wide basis, on November 8, Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors® said:

• Existing-home sales are expected to retain the healthy gains seen this year, while prices will stay on an uptrend in 2014,
• Existing-home sales have shown a 20 percent cumulative increase over the past two years, while prices have gained 18 percent, but incomes have risen only 2 to 4 percent in the same timeframe.
• Yun said. “While the median-income family in many areas will still be well positioned to buy a home in 2014, income is barely budging given growth in consumer prices.” 
• Yun said the other headwinds moving forward include limited inventory conditions in many areas and mortgage lending standards that are still unnecessarily stringent. “Although home sales have recovered over the past two years, mortgage purchase applications have been flat for the past four years, even with rising sales,” he said.
• With higher mortgage interest rates, he expects refinancings to collapse in 2014 to the lowest level in at least 15 years, and hopes purchase applications will begin to rise. “This is an incentive for banks to increase mortgage origination, especially considering the low default rates in recent years. But even with cheap mortgages for the past four years, all-cash buyers stayed high, accounting for over 30 percent of sales,” Yun noted. 
• Yun said banks are holding onto funds for potential Department of Justice lawsuits, rather than making them available to mortgage borrowers.
• Existing-home sales this year are forecast to rise 10 percent to nearly 5.13 million, but should hold fairly even at about 5.12 million in 2014. 
• The national median existing-home price for all of 2013 will be up just over 11 percent, to about $197,000; then increase nearly 6 percent next year.
• Yun expects the inventory shortages to be felt again next spring. “Housing starts are the only way to alleviate inventory shortages,” he said. “Housing starts need to rise 50 percent to meet underlying demand.”
•  Mortgage interest rates are expected to trend upward and reach 5.4 by the end of next year.
• “If not for the housing recovery, we could be on the verge of a recession,” Yun noted. “The rent component of inflation is rising, so the only way to tame price growth is new home inventory.” 
  
•  John Krainer, senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, who said near-term economic momentum is weakening, but improvement in growth is expected going forward. “Inflation has been subdued, and is expected to remain below the Fed’s 2 percent target over the next few years,” he said. “Despite improvement in the labor market, the unemployment rate remains elevated but will be falling slowly.” 
• Krainer notes improved household net worth, aided by rising home values, is supporting consumption spending, but home sales and inventories are not growing as expected. “New-home sales are significantly underperforming, and have been bouncing around World War II lows,” he said.
• “There is a big disconnect between rising home prices and inventory slowing down,” Krainer said. Normally, higher levels of new construction would be expected in a rising sales environment.
• Krainer notes there is a relationship between the share of underwater mortgages and the number of homes for sale. “In markets where we saw a high percentage of underwater home owners, we also saw lower inventory levels.”

See full article at Realtor.org

Ability to Repay and Qualified Mortgage Rules May Affect You in 2014

New loan rules were made law last year and will take effect on January 10, 2014.  The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau is a federal agency created in 2011 as part of the  Dodd–Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act in response to the financial crisis that evolved starting in 2007.  As a result, new loan borrowers are going to be subjected to what many think will be onerous and perhaps unnecessary new loan guidelines which may affect the housing market sales volume in the future. And, as of right now, not all future guidelines are yet known and may not be completely settled on until the end of 2013.

The CFPB has jurisdiction over banks, credit unions, mortgage servicing operations, payday lenders, and more.

Buyers who are obtaining financing should start learning what this means for home purchases.  The link goes to a 6-page brochure outlining essential facts about new loan rules established so far.

The lender must now perform an ability to repay (ATR) as part of the loan approval process, by looking at your assets and coming to the determination you have the ability to repay.  Next, the borrower hoping to qualify for a Qualified Mortgage (QM) -- those loans with the best rate and terms -- may not get a loan with interest only feature, negative amortization, generally no balloon payments, or loan terms longer than 30 years.  A thirty-year loan, by the way, was considered radical back during the Great Depression when up until that time it was standard for banks to be able to call their loans after 5 years, or continue them as they saw first for another 5 years.  There can be no excess upfront points or fees.  Yes, a borrower could still obtain a mortgage out of these guidelines, but the lender on those loans, but a lender who makes follows QM guidelines gets certain legal protections if the borrower defaults on the loan.

What's the big deal about these loans?  Well, for a while, governmental agencies wanted only 20% down loans to qualify, but that proposal was defeated.  More recently, there are six governmental agencies backing a new proposal that 30% down loans will be able to obtain a QM.  See Kenneth Harney's article: http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20131020,0,6931943.story#axzz2j4RPAzgO

One of the results of stricter guidelines already is a much higher percentage of FHA loans in the marketplace compared to past history.  What the future will be is not known, but naysayers believe that requiring 30% down payments for non-FHA loans will definitely impact housing sales. 
The Mortgage Bankers Assn. of America (which strongly opposes the 30% plan) estimates that only 18% of people who purchased homes during 2012 would have been qualified for their mortgages under the alternative proposed by the regulators.

What Will Homes Cost in California for 2014?





2014 CA Outlook Chart

Every year about this time, the California Association of REALTORS holds its annual conference, this year at the Long Beach Convention Center. It also marks the time at which the housing predictions for the next year are made.  As with most predictions, it's not etched in real estate concrete, but may be a good indicator based on the current year.

At the right is the nitty-gritty slide (no. 114 out of 127) which is arrived at in the presentation by CAR's chief economist after her complete review of the entire state and it's housing market indicators.  So where are we possibly, for next year?  Possibly a 6% increase in the median price of a single family home, far less than the current 2013 increase of 28%. 

What are factors impacting buyers and sellers? Interest rates--they have been going up. Lending guidelines--they have been changing and more is to come on January 1, 2014.  Disposable income for 2014 may increase, the CA unemployment rate may decrease to under 9%, while population growth may remain steady.  Distressed sales have increased with more standard sales in the majority in many areas (80% of sales).  A further complication has been the short inventory supply due to little new construction in several years (and never reaching the level last seen in 1988), and many sellers being underwater, with 1-2 months inventory in many areas including some parts of Long Beach.  The 6 months supply of inventory norm has not been seen in a very long time, a situation that has generated multiple offers (highest in last 15 years) with cash buyers coming out the winner in an average of 30% in California--as the median price increases, cash buyers have slowed in 2013, however.

Income Needed As Rates Rise

While many sellers may breathe easier as equity comes back into their market value, both buyers and sellers will have to deal with rising interest rates, and the results of current governmental agency discussions about loan qualifications.  Did you know that recently a proposal was put on the table that only people with 30% down payment could get the best interest rates?  This type of strain has made FHA the loan choice of over 60% of California buyers, increasing the reliance on government lending instead of an independent market place.

Sellers are now coming to a better time and place to sell, but unrealistic prices must be curbed--cash buyers do sometimes obtain appraisals to make sure they're not overpaying.  Buyers must be more prepared than ever to search out financing in advance, save money for down payment, reduce debt, and take care of their credit scores if they really really want to buy (what's so fun about paying $2500/month in rent with no tax deduction?)

For more information, go to www.juliahuntsman.com if you want to request a no obligation summary of what your home is worth!