More on California's 2022-2023 Housing Market Outlook

For Southern California as a region, inventory has come up to 3 months, but is still not considered a "normal" amount of housing on the market. Compared to Sept. 2021, price has increased by 3.8% while homes sales decreased over 32% in same period.  In Los Angeles County, September 2021 showed 3,630 home sales, but the September 2022 volume reduced to 2,481 homes sales, and list price to sales price ratio was 97.8%, meaning on average sales prices were over 2% lower than list.  Orange County homes sold even a little lower percentage at over 3% below list.

 

The market is not as competitive

Housing affordability in Los Angeles County in 2nd Quarter of 2022 was at 16%,  Orange County at 12%, meaning these counties are in the bottom third of housing affordability in California. Lassen County stands at highest affordability rate in the state -- at 54%.

Fed Funds rate predicted to come down

Buyer demand in the housing market is dipping below pre-pandemic markets, as shown by the dip in mortgage applications in most of 2022, compared to 2018-2021.

Housing supply constraints continue, as shown by the number of housing permits issued, plus the number of years owners stay in a home before selling, another great cause of limited inventory. The current average length of stay is 10 years, whereas in 2006 it was 5 years before selling. 

Don't expect a surge in foreclosures, California has the lowest rate of foreclosure at .6%, and most other states are under a 3% rate for foreclosures. In recent years buyers have had higher down payments, creating greater equity in their homes, and the percentage of California buyers with second mortgages has decreased from 43% in 2006 to 2.2% in 2022.

California's median home price for 2023 is predicted to reduce to $758,600 from 2022's $831,000.

• Housing demand will continue to pull back as economic uncertainty and affordability challenges remain
• Supply shortage will still be an issue despite improvement in housing inventory in the short term
• Prices will soften in the next few months but should begin to stabilize in H223
• Inflation will remain a threat to the economy and the market in 2023
• Rates will rise further and will peak in mid-2023
• Buyers and sellers need REALTORS® even more to navigate through the market uncertainty

 Demand will continue to slow in 2023, and home prices will slow, but the type of market seen in 2009 is not predicted to occur, inflation is not predicted to abate until 2024, interest rates may continue to rise as the Fed tries to fight inflation. 

 

Thanks to CAR's Oscar Wei, Deputy Chief Economist, the source of this information at our Fall Forum.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

California Housing Market for September, and 2023 Annual Prediction

 According to California Association of Realtors report on current sales and pricing for September, the existing home price in September for Southern California was $783,380, a year to year increase of over 3%, but existing home sales slipped since last May and are down over 32% year to year.  Sales dipped as rates climbed - pending sales fell more than 40% as mortgage rates hit 20-year high.

So Calif Housing Prices/Sales

The California median price is up from last year, but dipped to a seven month low, $821,680 and the median price for a condo/townhome is $620,000.  The sales price to list ratio dipped to the lowest level since 2019, and the share of homes selling above asking price was 28.3% vs. 72% in the Spring of 2022.

In Los Angeles County in September, approximately 30% of homes sold over list price, the highest being San Francisco County at 64%.  

While inventory slipped a little, it's still comparable to pre-pandemic levels of being under 3 months (normal is 6 months, not seen since 2012).  Active listings have increased over last year but still lower than 2018 and 2019.  Southern California has seen the largest growth in active listings over all other California regions.   Time on market was a median of 22 days, double that of one year ago. Sales to list price ratio was 97.7%.  The median reduction amount for reduced price listings was 5.6% while 44.5% of listings had a reduced price.

2023 Calif Housing Forecast

The October annual CAR forecast at the Long Beach Convention Center predicts an overall softening of the housing market for 2023 by about 7%, where the median price is $758,000 vs. the current $821,680. This may be a relief for some buyers, however the 30-year Fixed Interest Rate is predicted at 6.6%, and in recent days has threatened to increase even more.  Buyers may be interested to know that mortgage lenders are bringing back programs that will help some buyers with grants, etc., to help their buying process.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

House Representatives Introduce Bill to Increase Capital Gains Exclusion

The "More Homes on the Market Act" was introduced on September 29th by Jimmy Panetta (D-CA) and Mike Kelly (R-PA), proposing increases in the capital gain exclusion amounts.  Under this bill, the exclusion amount of the sale of a principal resident for single filers would increase to $500,000 (now $250,000) and to $1 million (now $500,000) for joint filers.

Homes May Benefit from New Capital Gains Bill

This bill would provide tax relief for California homeowners, who are experiencing one of the highest cost markets in the nation, who have been unable or not wanting to move because of the large tax burden that  could result if they sold in the current market.  Senior citizens are more likely to face a larger tax burden since they have on average lived in their homes longer than younger age groups. 

The current capital gains exclusion was passed 25 years ago, with no indexing for inflation, in a different market which was not experiencing such huge equity gains. According to Rep. Panetta, "The current exclusion amount was first set in 1997 and was not indexed to inflation. If it had been indexed for inflation, it would be $461,325 for single filers and $922,650 today," amounts similar to the current proposed exclusion.  The new proposed bill does include indexing for inflation.

The current capital gains rate is  concurrent with fewer homes are on the market, which has contributed to higher demand and higher prices.  The National Association of Realtors estimates that single (95%) and married homeowners (68%) who purchased before 2000 could face capital gains tax if they sold their homes this year.

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Just Listed, South Wrigley Charmer in Long Beach

Front porch of Wrigley home

Living Room and fireplace

 

Update:  this property is listed as of 11/22/2022 for $720,000.  Best of this Wrigley neighborhood in Long Beach, this lovely home at 861 W 21st St is ideally located for those who need to commute to nearby Lakewood/Long Beach/

Backyard gazebo

Formal dining room and china cabinet

Los Angeles areas for work, or just want a very comfortable two-bedroom home.  Spacious back yard patio and gazebo with yard is ideal for entertainers or gardeners. Front xeroscaping is suitable for the environment, new driveway gate offers privacy and security. Art Deco styling is typical of the 1935 era, and newer plumbing is a maintenance asset. See it all at the MLS listing. Contact listing agent for more information, or visit my website below to see "featured properties" or open houses tab. List price at $740,000.  Find out more information for a $5000 grant for the buyer and qualifying for a special program.  Such programs may be helpful in buying down an interest rate, and saving money on the monthly mortgage!

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

August 2022 State and Los Angeles County Market Reports

Calif August sales and price report

Statewide, California inventory reached highest level since 2019, but at 2.9 months of supply is still well under the norm of 6 months.  Both time on market and median price of a single family home were up, making some sellers who only knew the previous pandemic market ask why it was taking "so long" to sell?  Well, there's nothing wrong with being on the market 19 days before selling. It actually is good to give both buyers and sellers time to think about choice of property and for sellers to review an offer.

Los Angeles County Market Update

 

For the County of Los Angeles, inventory in August was at 3.1 months, with the median price of a single family home at $854,960, a 1% increase from the prior month, and a 3% increase from one year prior.  But total home sales in the County decreased over 29% from this time last year, although they increased about 1% from the previous month.   Median time on market for the County was 16 days, a 77% increase from this time last year.

Interest rate volatility, and upward jumps, have had an impact for many buyers, and with conventional rates around or above the 6% level now, although still low by historical standards, will continue to impact buyers dependent on mortgage financing.  From California Association of Realtors:

“It’s encouraging to see that August’s sales pace rebounded above an annualized 300,000 units sold,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. “Although we do not expect a rapid bounce-back because the Fed is expected to continue raising interest rates to get inflation under control, the monthly increase in closed and pending sales suggests that the market may have already priced in most of the rate increases to date. Still, buyers will continue to grapple with rising costs of borrowing, which will keep home sales below the 350,000 annualized pace for the remainder of the year.”

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

How Much Froth in the Housing Market is There?

Mortgage interest rates have been volatile, going up and down on a daily basis--today's rate (August 17) is at 5.22% per https://thefinancials.com for a 30-year mortgage, but recently it was up past 6%.  This has been affecting buyer behavior a lot for the purchase market, and has been slowing the sales volume for sellers.  However, while market time is longer than it was in the crazy pandemic purchase market, it is still not a buyer's market, just a somewhat longer selling time for sellers. 

Credit: Steven Thomas--Housing Reports

Price reductions in Los Angeles County equals 35% of market listings as of last week; Orange County reductions at 39% of market listings last week, and so on for Southern California counties. 

What counts right now for sellers is really taking stock of how you as a seller compare to your nearby home sales in terms of curb appeal, views, upgrades, remodels, and showing condition, on a more specific level than has been happening since before the pandemic price surge.  There are more listings on the market, but still not at the "normal" 6 month inventory level, and in fact, the Long Beach inventory level for July single family homes and condominiums was still only 1.9 months! On a national basis, it's more like 3 months--so in spite of the media attention given to some kind of housing debacle, there is in fact still a demand for inventory.  Increased interest rates have definitely affected buyers--the super low rates are not around, and the higher rates have pushed up monthly mortgage costs that many people cannot absorb.

 For a more complete weekly analysis of the Southern California real estate market, visit Orange County economist Steven Thomas at his weekly show.

Local market update for average single family home prices in July by zip code: 

Long Beach

90803 - $1,665,375

90815 - $1,008,650

90808 - $1,093,065

90806 - $728,800

Lakewood 

90712 - $817,938 

90713 - $855,535 

Signal Hill

$1,170,000 

Cerritos

$1,022,733

If you are thinking of selling, or would just like to know the market pricing for your home in the next 30-60 days, please contact me, I will be happy to assist you in person or online.  

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Do You Own a California Vacant Home? It Might Be a Housing Crisis Issue.

Should empty homes be taxed?

The City of Los Angeles, and many other cities, have been looking into this issue for years. The Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE) issued a report stating the City has more than 46,000 units in "non-market vacancy".  In 2020 another report said there were between 80,000 to 100,000 empty units throughout the city.  Housing advocates are often interested in the issue in order to house the homeless or "unhoused", but regardless of the target market, having so many units off the open market and unavailable to potentially qualified lessees/residents is a housing problem. And now many cities are thinking of taxing those properties. And, the California Association of Realtors estimated that around 1.2 million units, apartments and single-family homes may sit vacant around California. 

This is a kind of proposition that is usually easier said than done, but San Francisco, Santa Cruz, Berkeley have all worked towards a ballot proposition, while West Hollywood may discuss it next year. 

Also, Kate Harrison, Berkeley Vice Mayor, "cited a report in San Francisco finding vacancies are disproportionately in multi-family apartment complexes and in areas with older housing stock and higher rates of new construction. She said this suggests property owners are holding older units vacant to capitalize on new construction, and she wants a tax to send a message to these owners and “out of towners” who let property sit empty in a city they may not live in."

And, "The extraordinary gap between the housing needs of residents and the availability of housing can only be bridged through the use of numerous policy interventions, including a vacancy tax intended to incentivize owners of housing property to bring units back on the market and discourage speculation," Berkeley city staff wrote.

Vacant properties attract nuisance as well. It's better for cities and neighborhoods to have occupied homes, but is forcing property owners via a tax going to achieve the desired result?  In San Francisco, it could bring 4500 units back on the market with their proposed tax scheduled to launch in 2024. If it's successful, it would continue to pave the way for other cities.
 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Where is Market Pricing for last 90 days in Long Beach, Cypress, Lakewood?

View toward downtown Long Beach

The following cities sold statistics for single family homes for the last 90 days:

Cypress, average sale price of 56 homes: $1,055,946, 15 days on market.

Long Beach, average sale price of 446 homes:  $1,052,166, 15 days on market

Lakewood, average sale price of 176 homes: $830,722, 14 days on market

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Housing Update in Los Angeles County and Southern California

Interest rates and inflation are issues right now, not just here but globally.  Older populations in some other countries are problematic, without replacement population the consumer consumption is less. 

In the U.S., the Fed is trying to slow down inflation with rate hikes on many instruments, such as credit cards, but the Fed doesn't control the mortgage interest rates, per se.  Mortgage interest rates were over 6% in June, but are now down to just over 5%, with it being an extremely volatile market.  6.5% is a slight buyer's market, 4.5% is a slight seller's market. 

Do two negative quarters of the GDP indicate a recession?  The National Bureau of Economic Research calls the recession, and doesn't use the model of two negative quarters, but uses several other combined market indicators which it says are not yet flashing red. The jobs statistics came out very strong, and with current consumer consumption, which accounts for 70% of the U.S. economy, keep from calling a complete recession.  And recession doesn't equal a housing crisis, with interest rates going lower there is an increasing demand for housing.

Inventory in Southern California has climbed from 10,000 listings in January to over 30,000 listings in August.  The peak is projected to be in September, which means we are not yet back to pre-COVID market norms. In Los Angeles County, 31% of inventory has reduced its price, due to the current market shift and slow down.   Last year time on market was 33 days, today it's 77 days in Los Angeles County, which is still considered a seller's market, 90-120 days on market is considered a balanced market, and above that is more of a buyer's market.

Sellers:  Rather than reduce your price, offer the buyers a rate buy down.

Thanks to Steven Thomas for his excellent Housing Market Report.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

National Existing Home Sales Snapshot by National and California Association of Realtors May 2022

According to market research by National Association of Realtors, on a national level May 2022 brought 5.41 million in sales, a median sales price of $407,600, and 2.6 months of inventory. The median sales price is up 14.8% year-over-year, and inventory was up 0.1 months from May 2021.

Existing Home Sales May 2022

 

 California Association Realtors snapshot of the Long Beach housing market graphic shows a 14% decrease in existing home sales at a $940,000 median price for single family homes, with only a median 8 days on market overall.

Long Beach May 2022 Report

Per Altos Research:  More inventory now than any time last year. Still 50-70% fewer than normal.

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | http://www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996