Opportune Time for Buyers.

National Association of Home Builders comments on the current market, both for new housing and existing homes. Prices nationally --and locally -- have returned to the 2003 levels. NAHB believes there is price stabilization in many areas of the country. Future household formation--which has slowed in the current economy--will eventually demand more housing. This is the "opportune time for buyers" because buyers who are motivated to buy and are qualified at this time should take advantage. Los Angeles County, though experiencing fewer sales than one year ago, has not lost in the median price point of a single family homes since one year ago: Year-to-date in LA County the median price of a single family home is $340,000, Click on the video for more on housing market conditions currently.

When Is "Diving" into Lease Option a Good Idea in Southern California?

Sometimes I'm asked about the possibility of a lease-option as a way to buy a single family home.

Lease-options were used extensively with commercial properties in the past and have also become a method for purchasing a single family home in the residential market.

They work best when: 1) the owner wants to sell but does not have to transfer title right away; 2) or the seller may need continuing cash to pay fthe mortgage, 3) the house may be vacant or will soon be because the seller has already moved on, 4) the money from the sale is not needed immediately by the seller, 5) and, very important, the seller has equity in the property or has other income. When a seller's market is slow and a house with equity in it is not selling, a seller might consider this scenario from a renter/buyer.

There are advantages for both the buyer and the seller in this arrangement.  It's also important to use a good lease-option agreement which covers, among other things, the percentage of rent credit towards the down payment, the date by which the sale will close, and other clarifications concerning who is paying the taxes, who is maintaining the property (usually the seller), agreement on the final sales price. Tenants in this situation are more likely to treat the property very well since they see themselves as the future owners.

An advantage for the seller includes retaining the income tax deductions and having good tenants. The advantages for the buyer are getting into a house for little money up front (the amount is negotiable of course),  building up a rent credit towards a down payment, trying out the neighborhood, still having time to shop for the best mortgage or interest rate, and the possible benefit of the price being locked in if the value goes up.

The buyer must first find out what the seller's circumstances are, which a Realtor can definitely help out with, before spending time on making lease-option offers. In many neighborhoods, short sales are about 50% or more of the local market and many if not most of those properties will not have a seller who will be able to rent out the house at local market rent because their mortgage payment may be much much higher, and they do not have either the desire or the ability to carry a negative cash flow.

However, if an equity seller can wait 6 months or even a year for the buyer, it might be worth the wait.

For some additional explanation, see this general article about lease-options.

If You Got a Home Loan From the Bank, Are You Its Client?

No. You're the borrower. And as the borrower, you voluntarily took the loan from the bank, and according to the usual circumstances of an arms-length loan transaction, there is no fiduciary relationship.

However, Bank of America's investors, for example, include Pimco of Newport Beach, TCW Corp. of Los Angeles, BlackRock, Inc. of New York, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Bank of America has about 500 investors, all of whom it may owe a fiduciary obligation because of their investment/purchase of funds. Banks in these cases are the servicers for these investors, with whom they have agreements or contracts. Those contracts are known as PSA's, Pooling and Servicing Agreements, which guide the specific demands made on loan modifications or short sales requested by the borrower. It may not be easy to find out the exact terms  in those agreements, and in fact, it's often difficult to find out what investor holds the note due to the use of MERS in the last few years. But those servicing agreements spell out the relationship of the Bank to the investor, and ultimately, the course of your short sale or loan modification request. The servicer may actually have leeway in negotiating for the investor, but if the investor is able to accuse the servicer it did not act in the investor's best interest, the servicing bank could have a lawsuit on its hands. So you might be told the "investor" is making demands, but is that really the full story?

The banks/servicers frequently require the use of their bank addendums to be added to Realtor contracts--adding another layer to interpret in the transaction.  Here is another use of the term "fiduciary"--On a recently published Purchase Contract Addendum by Wells Fargo in July/August of this year, the following language definitely confuses the issue: "It is the Brokers’ fiduciary responsibility to present the highest and best offer to the servicer." To be very clear, 1) the seller's broker has a fiduciary duty to the seller, not to the seller's bank, and 2) offers are presented to the seller, not to the bank. The "highest and best offer" (and the best offer may not necessarily be the highest price) is presented to the seller, who ideally accepts an offer when it then becomes a contract, which is than submitted to the bank for its approval to accept less than the outstanding loan amount. Naturally, the bank is interested in recouping as much money as possible, but the issue of fiduciary relationship--the person to whom you owe the greatest care--is clearly laid out for brokers in agency law, and that person is your seller if you are the listing broker, not the bank. The broker cannot be the servant of both because the broker already has a contract (the listing agreement) with the seller who owns the property, not with the bank--or investor--which owns the note.

Sellers would like a clear, black-and-white outlook for their property, and it's rarely easy, and full of complications. It's very important for the seller to read the letter issued by the bank when a short sale has been approved--the seller should not assume the bank is issuing language that is completely in the seller's interest without taking the time to examine it, or have it looked at by a tax or legal advisor!

FICO Scores May Mean Savings on Monthly Payment of $200

Many buyers, and property owners who want to refinance now, realize that FICO scores are important when it comes to getting a loan. But what exactly is the picture on the benefits to a higher score, and what kind of a difference will it make? Below is a general chart for score categories and interest rates.

The sample breakdown below may not be exactly like this because a borrower's other circumstances with a particular lender or a particular program could vary, so it's important to keep that in mind. But oftentimes prospective borrowers are not aware of how their decision to buy one more piece of furniture, or buying that new car, BEFORE closing escrow, may strongly impact their new monthly payment because they have added more debt.

30 year Fixed Rate Mortgage - $200,000 Loan Amount

FICO Score                APR              Monthly Payment

760-850                     4.466%          $1,009
700-759                     4.688%          $1,036
680-699                     4.865%          $1,057
660-679                     5.079%          $1,083
640-659                     5.509%          $1,137
620-639                     6.055%          $1,206

Chart courtesy of Pat Zaby

For more information on how debt and other credit issues can impact your credit score, I can forward you my Powerpoint presentation.  Also, go to http://www.myfico.com/ for objective information about credit scoring and obtaining a free credit report.

What is the Trend in Long Beach House and Condo Prices Since Sept. 2008

The two-year picture for median selling price of single family homes in Long Beach is a pretty diverse picture, just like the city itself. From September 2008 to September 2010:

Interestingly, the overall drop for the SFR from 2 years ago is only 3% from $390,000 to $379000 (per CARETS data). This is in contrast to the median price for Los Angeles County which has increased from $339,500 (Sept. 2009) to $350,000 (per CoreLogic data). There is a 30% decrease in expired house listings, and the number of sold properties is up 15% over two years ago, while the months supply of inventory is down 33%.

Condos in Long Beach have taken a bigger hit--the median sold price has dropped 22% in two years from $263,000 to $205,000 from 2008-2010, and for Los Angeles County the median price has dropped from $337,000 to $320,000 from 2009-2010. The overall median for sale condo price in Long Beach has dropped 22% in the last 2 years, but there are fewer expired properties (down 37%), and an increase in the number of sold condos in the last 2 years, by 5%. The months supply of inventory is down 32% from two years ago.

For both houses and condos, the number of properties for sale is down by 26% and 22%, a condition that eventually may contribute to more listings on the market to meet demand, driving sales volume higher and in some cases sales prices higher as inventory decreases in certain areas.

Should You Pay All Cash or Should You Carry a Mortgage?

Should you be in a hurry to pay off a mortgage? Or should you never pay it off? What reasons would you have for carrying a mortgage instead of having total equity in your property? Why do we want to make a bigger down payment, get 15-year loans, pay more money every month? If you are trying to decide what to do, save a bigger down payment or pay all cash, or make a lesser down payment, take a look at this.

When the stock market crashed in 1929, the banks called (demanded immediate payment on ) home loans in the 1920's due to the run on banks, which led to homeowners losing their homes. This is when people starting believing it was bad to have a mortgage and that it was bad to be in debt. Then, mortgage loans could be called on a moment's notice, but today, due to a change in the rule,  the bank is prohibited from paying in full without prior notice, and can only demand this month's payment. People have been trained to think of debt elimination and being debt-free due to this history.

• Mortgages don't affect home values--mortgage is not a debt, it is an asset class.
• Equity is built whether or not there is a mortgage, it is built due to market growth in value.
• A mortgage is the cheapest money you can borrow because it is secured by the property (unlike most debt which is unsecured and is given at much higher interest).
• Mortgage interest is tax-deductible.
• Mortgage interest is tax-favorable.
• Mortgage payments get easier over time, the payment never grows, but your income does.
• Mortgages allow you to sell without selling; owners have the opportunity to use the equity.
• Mortgages enable you to create more wealth than you otherwise would.
• Mortgages allow you to invest more money more quickly.
• Mortgages give you greater liquidity and greater flexibility. The 30-year loan may actually give a better return than a 15-year loan--if you save and invest the difference.

 Many people carry a mortgage even though they have the money to pay it off because they have learned to use their mortgage to create wealth. A big mortgage is not an excuse to buy a big house--Buy the cheapest house you can buy, and get the biggest mortgage. See Ric Edelman, 10 Great reasons to Carry a Big Long Mortgage

Buying a Home is An Opportunity to Leverage

Often when prospective buyer(s) think about making the change from being a renter to a homeowner, they add up all their monthly costs as a renter and then compare it to their monthly costs as a homeowner. If the amount as a homeowner is more, then they get discouraged and assume that buying is not a good deal for them. But instead of focusing on only their current role as a renter, they should go further and realize their role, and their opportunity, as an homebuyer/investor for their future:

Some people define leverage as using other people's money but another way to describe it is when a small down payment controls a large asset by placing a high loan-to-value mortgage on it. There are not many investments that allow leverage but homes certainly do and especially with FHA or VA loans.

Let's assume a couple or single buyer has the down payment and good credit that would allow them to buy a home. We'll compare some alternatives to see where their best outcome may be.

If a person put $6125 in a certificate of deposit (CD) that earned 2% annually, it would be worth $6,762 in five years and the profit would be taxed as ordinary income. If a person could take a little more risk and pick the right stock, the $6,125 might grow to $7,817 and the profit would be taxed at  the more favorable long-term capital gains rates if they held the stock for more than one year.

On the other hand, if the $6,125 were used as a down payment for a $175,000 home (possible with an FHA purchase) that went up in value only 1% per year, the equity would grow to $30,575 in the same five year period of time based on appreciation and amortization. In most cases, the gains on principal residences are excluded from income tax subject to limits. (Single person usually has an IRS $250,000 capital gains exemption and married couple usually has an IRS $500,000 capital gains exemption.)

The difference is dramatic and is one more reason that buyers should be taking advantage of the great selection of homes, the lower prices and incredibly low interest rates to fix their cost of housing for years to come. There may never be a better time to buy a home than now.

For more information on this, a rent vs. buy analysis may be obtained. Or please contact me through http://www.juliahuntsman.com/

Inspired by Pat Zaby

Has Your Home Loan Been Sold?

What if your home loan has been sold? This video interviewing Paul Leonard of the Housing Policy Council explains why mortgages may be sold, what is securitization and its function in the market, and the new banking changes which will require anyone who touches a mortgage in the future to have some responsibility for it: the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (summary is 16 pages).

Was 2009 the Low Point of the Market?

Almost two years ago, in December of 2008, I did a post called The Cost of Waiting to Buy.  Blogger has a new stats tool for keeping track of your hits (since its inception June 1, 2010) and that particular post is the all time winner, which is interesting because it tells me there's lots of people who are at least thinking of buying, or would like to buy, or are looking for good reasons to not buy and they're having arguments with themselves or others, which means they're thinking about buying. And then someone left a comment saying they didn't think the bottom of the market had come yet, and that commentor may have been correct. Well, some people are now beginning to think that it has, and that the bottom of the market in California may have been last year, 2009.

After two consecutive years of record-setting price declines, the median home price in California will climb 11.5 percent in 2010 to $306,500 and increase another 2 percent in 2011 to $312,500, according to the forecast. CAR Housing Market 2011 Forecast.

The bottom is behind us. John Karevoll, Dataquick at CAR 2010 Expo at Anaheim.

Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but is lower than peak levels reached over the last two years, and jumbo loans above $417,000 increased 15.7% from August 2009. DQ News.Com 9/2010.

The steady 9-month increase in median price for Los Angeles County could be another indicator.

For buyers, the price of a home and the availability and costs of a mortgage are two significant benchmarks. Is this your time? With prices still lower and, in spite of stringent underwriting by lenders, there are loans with low interest rates available. It could be your time.

A Market Snapshot for California Real Estate Activity for 2010 and 2011

The market predictions for 2011 were given out just prior to the California Association of Realtors Expo October 5-8, 2010.

The California median price for a single family house bottomed out in 2009 and in August 2010 the unsold inventory index was about 6.1 months, a market "normal". Unsold inventory by price is highest at the upper end of the market, and the lower end of the market is a 4 month supply. Affordability reached 70% in 2009 and 65% in 2010, meaning two out of three household can afford to buy an entry-level home in California. 

Median price for condos was $258,000 statewide, sales of condos were up in the Spring. First time homebuyers are 44% of the market, especially for condos. However, 20% down payment was the  median down payment statewide.

There are more non-distressed sellers coming on the market this year, comprising up to 59% of the market, while short sales are 22% of the market overall. Multiple offers (about 4) existed on 51% of properties in June, 2010. Sellers net about $35,000 in cash at close of escrow in 2010. FHA loans were used by 32% of all buyers.
Short sales or distressed property conditions were the reason for 29% of all sellers putting home on the market--a record number since the survey started.
Investors comprised about over 13% of purchasers, an active part of the economic recovery, while 5.3% were second home/vacation property purchases.
44% of buyers changed their minds after opening escrow, reflecting a great deal of fear and uncertainty about the market for many buyers.
2011 should bring a slight increase in sales volumeby 2% (to 502,000 units) and a slight increase in median home price of about 2% to $312,500 for the California median price. Interest rates are expected to remain low, with as much as a .5% increase in rates.

2011 should bring a prime opportunity to buy, but the actual number of move-up buyers and sellers is also of concern due to the number of owners with continuing negative equity in their homes who may hold off selling for a long period of time.

High cost loan limits ($729,750) will continue through September 2011, very important to the Califonria housing market, because the median home price is still significantly higher than the rest of the country.
Los Angeles County median home price is about $349,000, an increase of 2.8% over 2009. This is  also a reflection of the movement in the low end of the market where properties have moved much more rapidly than the high end where some prices have softened.


Overall, home prices in the state have either stabilized or improved.

The "shadow inventory" properties held by the banks are predicted to be in a 3-5 year window for the foreclosed properties to return to the normal market, but prices are likely to hold steady because it is not in the lenders' best interests to flood the market with properties.

There is upward movement in low-end prices where there is a lot of competition between first-time buyers and investors, more than in the $1,000,000-plus market where there is much more inventory.

Long Beach is a "microcosm" of the state -- high end areas over $1,000,000 and low end areas such as North Long Beach with a high proportion of distressed properties, and will probably mirror similar Los Angeles County area performances. The recovery for the city will not be uniform, and will be a reflection of its various internal markets.

Modest price appreciation in the future is a much more realistic expectation than the 20%-plus gains during the boom years which precipitated the market downturn.

"We expect a net jobs increase of approximately 1.4 million jobs in California for the year to come and an improvement in unemployment figures,” Leslie Appleton-Young (CAR) said.



From the California Association of Realtors annual Realtor survey and the Housing Market Forecast for 2011.