7/25/2006

The UCLA Anderson Forecast: No Recession

Buyers and sellers seem to be in a kind of standoff this summer--buyers are waiting for real estate home prices to fall and sellers are just waiting for an offer. More than a month ago, UCLA discussed its national and California forecasts, and for both, certain declines in real estate and jobs are present in certain sectors, "but absent job losses in manufacturing or other sectors, there will be no recession," according to economist Ryan Ratcliff. Anderson Forecast director Edward Leamer, "does not expect real estate prices to fall significantly, notes that sales volume is what typically drops, and drops more precipitously than prices, as the price cycle lags behind the volume cycle," which is what we are seeing on the market now, as Southern California sales volumes (although higher in June than April and May) lag behind last year's, the median price remains strong. http://www.juliahuntsman.com

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