4/18/2007

Foreclosure Impact


Deep Impact: Foreclosure Surge in California. A surge of foreclosures in California has some economists concerned that the fallout will be long lasting and potentially wound the whole economy. The 11,033 foreclosures in the first three months of the year represent an 800 percent increase over the same period a year earlier. "For this rise in foreclosures to be happening in the midst of a strong labor market is truly unique and scary," says analyst Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics. He predicts foreclosures will top out at four or five times the current level — enough, he says, to induce a recession or at least bring the economy to the precipice.Others are less pessimistic. "The housing sector is in trouble for a considerable period," says Edward Leamer, director of the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "But the rest of the economy will muddle through." Source: Los Angeles Times, David Streitfeld (04/17/07) & REALTOR® Magazine - Daily News.

This article is like many others: It simply does not mention the big picture--for instance, what is the percentage of foreclosures of total mortgages in the state of California, or the U.S.?


"The truth is that 99% of all loans in the U.S. are not in foreclosure. The remaining 1% that were foreclosed upon had the following breakdown:

* 80% were classified by federal lenders as Professional Thieves and were turned over to the FBI.
* 20% were classified by lenders as Fraud for Property that resulted in unethical lending practices.
* Ca. Defaults: Historical 32,762 - Low: 12,145- 3Q ’04 High: 59,987 – 1Q ’96 Current: 37,273. [NOTE: February '07 data.]
* For all of ‘06, foreclosures accounted for only 1.81% of all Orange County sales, with lenders reselling those homes at an average discount of only 3.8%!" Gary Watts, http://www.impactre.com.


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