10/25/2018

What's Ahead for the California Real Estate Market in 2019?

The annual California Association of Realtors Trade Show was held earlier in October, and it's always the time for the next year's market prediction.  So the main points are:

Calif Market Outlook 2019
  • There will be modest decline in sales volume to 3.3% for 2019 for single family homes, or a total of 396,800 units, down from the projected 2018 sales figure of 410,460. The 2018 figure is 3.2 percent lower compared with the 424,100 pace of homes sold in 2017. In other words, 2019 will be about 7% lower in sales volume from 2017.
  • The California median home price is forecast to increase 3.1 percent to $593,450 in 2019, following a projected 7.0 percent increase in 2018 to $575,800.  
  • Fixed mortgage rates to rise to 5.2%.
  • “The surge in home prices over the past few years due to the housing supply shortage has finally taken a toll on the market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Despite an improvement in supply conditions, there is a high level of uncertainty about the direction of the market that is affecting homebuying decisions. This psychological effect is creating a mismatch in price expectations between buyers and sellers and will limit price growth in the upcoming year.”  
  • Outmigration, from the home county or from the state, is a concern, in 2018, 28 percent of homebuyers moved out of the county in which they previously resided. 29 percent of sellers moving out of California, up 10 percent from 2013.
  • New housing supply, big issue.
  • Affordability: Move to Lassen County or Kern County for lowest prices in U.S.,  least affordable areas in U.S. are Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, Oxnard, San Francisco 
  • California is home to largest number of homeless. 
  • New York and California have lowest rate of homeownership, Michigan and West Virginia have the highest.
  • In 2017, cities with lower renter rates (under 50%) ,were Lakewood, Menifee, Temecula, Whittier, Yorba Linda, while over 50% cities are Long Beach, Bellflower, Alhambra, Costa Mesa, Pasadena, to name a few. 

  • So now could be the time for buyers to get moving before rates go any higher, maintain good credit (or improve your score now), and find the best loan out there.
  • Please contact me for any help to buy or sell: Sellers, prices are very favorable for you and will continue to be, so contact me for your moving plans!
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Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

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