Long Beach/Southern California Real Estate: California Housing Market Prediction for 2024

9/26/2023

California Housing Market Prediction for 2024 - New Increase Projection

CAR Convention 2023 Front Entry

The annual conference was held last week in Anaheim, along with the traditional annual market prediction for the next year by the California Association of Realtors Economist Jordan Levine.

The entire report is available for anyone who would like a copy--here are 3 main takeaways from the presentation:

Existing, single-family home sales are forecast to total 327,100 units in 2024, an increase of 22.9 percent from 2023’s projected pace of 266,200.
California’s median home price is forecast to climb 6.2 percent to $860,300 in 2024, following a projected 1.5 percent decrease to $810,000 in 2023 from 2022’s $822,300.
Housing affordability(percent of households who can afford the median price home) is expected to remain flat at 17 percent next year from a projected 17 percent in 2023.

Insurance as many already know is a big issue for homebuying. In a housing survey for 2023, rural area buyers had the most challenge--32% of those buyers reported difficulty obtaining insurance. The lowest percentage of buyers having problems were for city downtown areas (12%), city outside of downtown (14%), and suburb buyers (15%).

The share of international buyers in California on the increase again after reaching its lowest point in 2020, but still not at the highest point share of buyers (almost 8%) in 2013.

Owners over the age of 65 are the highest share of homeowners in the state: 50%; the age group 25-34 years represent 13% of all homeowners.

All cash buyers are approximately 27% of the market in 2023, up from 10% in 2005.

Sellers are holding on to properties longer than ever: they have low interest rates on mortgage, lower property taxes, may have a capital gains hit if they sell, wondering where they can go, so they remodel and stay many times.

About 45% of the population in Los Angeles County owns a home, compared to 73% of San Mateo County, and 5% of Kings County and Imperial County.

Inventory months of supply (time to use up all homes on market if no new ones came on the market) remains one of the larger challenges, it hasn't increased since August of 2022, still at 2.3 to 2.4 months overall.