California Housing Market Prediction for 2021

The California Association of Realtors with Leslie Appleton-Young presented the annual market outlook (this year it was all online, so we missed our annual Expo and Luncheon as we sat at our laptops), which at the very end always gets to the final price and sales volume predictions for the coming year.  So to break all suspense, I'll show that slide first (there were 100 slides covering the entire state's regional markets and economic conditions, I'm just hitting the highlights), which shows the predicted increase in the California home sales market to be 3.3 percent, at a median price of $690,000+ (up from $476,000 in 2015).

 

California Housing Market 2021 

• The impact of COVID-19 seemed to cause buyers to get out there and buy, rather than stay home, so prices in many areas have jumped considerably as inventory in many areas was still quite low, especially in the affordable range (something under $600,000 in the So Cal metro regions).  
• The lowest mortgage interest rates since long before 1971 allowed more buyers to purchase at the upper end their loan qualifications.  
• By August, sales and prices were up, inventory was down statewide to 2.1 months, but keep in mind inventory has generally been low since 2012, and 1-2 months inventory in some So Cal areas is not uncommon.  
• The total home sales in August was the highest in 10 years, 2005-2006 was the last time California saw a much higher sales volume extending up to 600,000 residential units. 
• The share of first time buyers was the highest in 10 years and investor buyers the lowest since 2001.
• More sellers leaving California, highest since 2005 (hello, Proposition 19); Los Angeles and Bay area sellers are mostly moving to the Inland Empire and other cheaper counties; the Inland Empire and other cheaper counties are moving out of state
  
• Potentially 600,000 foreclosures nationwide, perhaps 60,000 in California, due to job loss, etc.
• California is the 5th largest economy, with $175 billion in annual exports--economy still strong.
  

 

CA worst case scenario 2021

 For the complete presentation which goes into much greater detail, please contact me, very easy to email.  For an market valuation of your residential or income property, please contact me for the latest information in your area.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996