Know Your Local, Local Market: A Call to Confidence, for Buyers AND Sellers

Don't short change yourself.

Sometimes people act as if they are just looking for a reason to feel bad, and any attempts to correct, or just gently push away, negative assumptions are met with even stronger resistance.  Twice in four days, the negativity virus has struck people I'm talking to. (The open house rate can be much higher.) One person believed he has the worst looking house possible and that it will never sell, when in fact, a few immediate corrections, including some paint, costing $1000-$1500 would probably put the home on its path to a motivated buyer in at least his house price median. Unfortunately, this owner has fallen prey, over and over, to the repetitious negative media message about "the bad market", all the while knowing nothing about his neighborhood statistics. He couldn't believe he actually had an opportunity somebody out there is looking for: a solid little house with a large back yard in a nice neighborhood under $350,000. Instead, he was looking backwards at perceived complications and difficulties, not forward into the light of a sold property. Maybe he's just not ready, but just in case he's reading this, the light of a sold property can be a very happy light.

This is the real job of a real estate agent: educating the client, which in turn would fire them up with more enthusiasm and motivation about taking action. It's a shame to see a person get into a real funk, a downward spiral of mopiness, when I'm hearing there are buyers looking and looking for certain opportunities. Repetition of the message is where it's at.  The media knows this, and feeds on the human tendancy to embrace fear.  So Realtors have to know it also: We have to be prepared over and over, to show, act and tell wherever and whenever, the postive truths about a client's local market, and show them what solutions could work best for them, over and over. You can't convince someone of something they really don't want to be convinced of, however, repeating things over and over is the key to all learning. Yes, it's a challenge. 

I tried to explain to my prospective seller that the first time buyers are out there in great numbers, in fact, in Los Angeles County, about 60% of first time home buyers can afford a median-priced home (at the height of the market it was about 10%).  At the end of 2010, the LA County median priced single family home was $323,000 (per CAR), and for April 2011, it was $333,000 (per tax data).  And then I tried to explain that investors with all or 50% cash have been very strong in the market also, composing 30-50% of all sales in some markets, actually making it tough for the first time buyers who get outbid.  So Mr. Seller, for the right property in the right area, there's competition out there. Our unsold inventory in Long Beach is recently at 2-3 months (that used to be called a seller's market), the housing affordability index is now where it was in 1999 and 2000. The trickle up effect is that the higher end homes are selling more--those over $750,000 in Los Angeles County have decreased in supply of inventory compared to one year ago.

Just give peace a chance.

California Market: Neither the Best Nor the Worst?

The Housing Predictor has published its 25 best and 25 worst markets for 2011, and fortunately or unfortunately, California is not on either list. Are things getting better finally? The appreciation predicted for the 25 best areas ranges from 2.3% to 3.6%, and depreciation in the 25 worst markets ranges from 8.2% to 11.5%.  For Los Angeles County, Housing Predictor foresees an overall 5.4% loss for 2011, with Sacramento and San Diego faring a little better in the 3-4% loss range, with Sacramento also on the list for one of the first markets to recover.  Sacramento is considered one of the most affordable cities in the state. Meanwhile, pointing out that California is the world's 6th largest economy, and that it's not "falling into economic ruin", the sluggish housing market is still affecting Los Angeles County. The tax credit that boosted sales in 2010 is not around now. Per Realist Tax Data, in fact, the overall median price of a single family home did increase from October to November in Los Angeles County, from $330,000 to $335,000--but the median price of a condo decreased by $5,000 from $305,000 in October to $300,000 in November.

Per data by Dataquick released yesterday and published today by the LA Times, a Southern California median home price was up by 1% in December from November, even though lower when compared to the end of 2009, while sales volume was up (Dataquick tends to lump both house and condo prices into one overall median).

However, did you know that a long-gone single family loan type has returned? The 3% down conventional loan for houses is back on the scene--and some condos and condo buyers may be eligible for a 5% down conventional loan. These loans should be a great help to the conforming loan market buyers and sellers.

This would be a good time to review The Cost of Waiting To Buy -- a blog article that receives the most hits since last May.

What is the Trend in Long Beach House and Condo Prices Since Sept. 2008

The two-year picture for median selling price of single family homes in Long Beach is a pretty diverse picture, just like the city itself. From September 2008 to September 2010:

Interestingly, the overall drop for the SFR from 2 years ago is only 3% from $390,000 to $379000 (per CARETS data). This is in contrast to the median price for Los Angeles County which has increased from $339,500 (Sept. 2009) to $350,000 (per CoreLogic data). There is a 30% decrease in expired house listings, and the number of sold properties is up 15% over two years ago, while the months supply of inventory is down 33%.

Condos in Long Beach have taken a bigger hit--the median sold price has dropped 22% in two years from $263,000 to $205,000 from 2008-2010, and for Los Angeles County the median price has dropped from $337,000 to $320,000 from 2009-2010. The overall median for sale condo price in Long Beach has dropped 22% in the last 2 years, but there are fewer expired properties (down 37%), and an increase in the number of sold condos in the last 2 years, by 5%. The months supply of inventory is down 32% from two years ago.

For both houses and condos, the number of properties for sale is down by 26% and 22%, a condition that eventually may contribute to more listings on the market to meet demand, driving sales volume higher and in some cases sales prices higher as inventory decreases in certain areas.

Was 2009 the Low Point of the Market?

Almost two years ago, in December of 2008, I did a post called The Cost of Waiting to Buy.  Blogger has a new stats tool for keeping track of your hits (since its inception June 1, 2010) and that particular post is the all time winner, which is interesting because it tells me there's lots of people who are at least thinking of buying, or would like to buy, or are looking for good reasons to not buy and they're having arguments with themselves or others, which means they're thinking about buying. And then someone left a comment saying they didn't think the bottom of the market had come yet, and that commentor may have been correct. Well, some people are now beginning to think that it has, and that the bottom of the market in California may have been last year, 2009.

After two consecutive years of record-setting price declines, the median home price in California will climb 11.5 percent in 2010 to $306,500 and increase another 2 percent in 2011 to $312,500, according to the forecast. CAR Housing Market 2011 Forecast.

The bottom is behind us. John Karevoll, Dataquick at CAR 2010 Expo at Anaheim.

Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but is lower than peak levels reached over the last two years, and jumbo loans above $417,000 increased 15.7% from August 2009. DQ News.Com 9/2010.

The steady 9-month increase in median price for Los Angeles County could be another indicator.

For buyers, the price of a home and the availability and costs of a mortgage are two significant benchmarks. Is this your time? With prices still lower and, in spite of stringent underwriting by lenders, there are loans with low interest rates available. It could be your time.

Price and Value -- It's Increasing for Southern California Lately

The buyers' tax credit had an effect: There were more sales. And the low mortgage rates are helping (below 5% with paying one point). Per Dataquick, May sales of houses and condos in Southern California were the highest since May 2006: "...what we saw in May was partly driven by government stimulus".  May's typical monthly mortgage on new purchases was approximately $1293 -- do you remember when it was about $2200?--but that's still an increase from 2 years ago. Home flipping is trending higher--current rules require an investor to wait 90 days. Sales volume is up in Los Angeles and Orange Counties in this category, and so is the median price: $345,000 and $450,000. Although houses and condos cannot be compared across the board in all ways, nor can all geographic areas, this seems to be an overall general trend in price and sales. And, buyers who paid all cash account for over 24% of May sales. That's 10% higher than the 23-year monthly average.  This is not news to those buyers who have submitted offer after offer and continually lose out in the median price range. Will this trend hold, and how much had to do with the tax credit, which ended April 30th?
California Association of Realtors reports that April sales (May's report not out yet) for single family homes statewide increased 21% over previous April, to $306,230, but sales volume decreased statewide by 8.1% from prior April for SFRs. From C.A.R. on May 24th, "Large changes in local median home prices typically indicate both local home price appreciation, and often, large shifts in the composition of housing market activity. Some of the variations in median home prices for April may be exaggerated due to compositional changes in housing demand." So, in other words, real estate is local.

Market Forecast for 2009 by CAR

It's time for the annual California Association of Realtors' market forecast which always consists of many more Powerpoint slides than what is shown here.

For the buyers and sellers of the next year, it's time to think, if not act. The trends already show certain things:

• Contrary to the decrease in sales for the past two years, this year California single family home sales have jumped up by 12%, and will continue to increase next year, along with an increase in the 30-year-fixed rate mortgage.
• The overall median house price is projected to decline from 2008's 37% decline to a much smaller decline for 2009 of another 6%.
• The notices of default issued in Southern California during the second quarter of 2008, over 68,228, exceeded the previous record high of 61,541 notices in the first quarter of 1996.
• Highest number of the sub-prime adjustable rate loan resets (69% of all California subprime loans) peaked in 2008, declining to 24% in Los Angeles County in 2009 and to 8% in 2010. The decline is similar for the rest of California.
• The Alt-A adjustable rate loan (58% of all Alt-A loans in California) resets, however, will peak again in 2010, with the highest percentage of those loans being in Southern California and San Francisco.
• FHA and VA mortgages are now just over 20% of the mortgages, offering favorable rates for first-time buyers.
• Percentage of first-time buyers is the greatest in the last 7-8 years, getting closer to 40% of all buyers.
• Los Angeles County had the highest number of sales in August, 2008.
• In Los Angeles County, bank-owned (REO) properties sold at about 80% of all sales prices, and non-bank-owned sales prices were over 100%--OR, the median price of REO properties were $325,000, compared to non-REO properties at $420,000. Why? Unlike the last down market, the bank-owned properties are often in the "fixer" category, to the extent that laws are recently passed forcing banks to physically maintain their inventory of homes to prevent blight in neighborhoods. For another "take" on the business of making an offer on bank properties, read this Realtor's candid description of her experience.
• Overall, California 2008 sales are up by 85%, compared to an overall decline in sales in the rest of the country.

For buyers, it's very important at this time to know what to expect when submitting an offer on the bank-owned property, or the seller's short sale property, where the bank is again involved in approving the seller's request to sell for less than is owed on the property. The "credit crunch" and bank bailouts come into play here, the seeming inefficiency of many banks along with organizational mergers, have all impacted how those properties are dealt with. So buyers need to know what kind of seller they are dealing with, the difference between the distressed sale and the "normal" equity seller, who might be in a better position to help a buyer with closing costs.

As more buyers recognize their opportunity, will it mean once again having to compete with other offers? The temptation to wait for a lower price may also ultimately bring more buyer competition into the market.

Water Wise Landscaping in Southern California

This is the time of year when thoughts turn to outdoor lawns and gardens. This year, some planning, and awareness of new laws, can save you some money.

Water conservation is a growing focus in a land that used to be a desert before all the swimming pools were added. Los Angeles' Metropolitan Water District developed a BeWaterWise website several years and (I still have a few CDs) for native plant gardening, classes, and irrigation systems installation. See the Water Calculator to assist with your climate's and soil's watering needs on a season basis.



The City of Long Beach recently passed an ordinance for saving water, and limits landscape watering to specific days (Monday, Thursday and Saturday) and times. Pressure washers (under pulldown menu at "Water Conservation") are to be used instead of hoses if absolutely necessary for outdoor use. The city Water Department is sponsoring landscaping classes during April, May and June focusing on irrigation systems and installation, and "California-friendly" plants. Certain neighborhoods are already popping up with water-efficient landscaping, and looking very attractive. There are also a few rebate programs offered by the City for using certain water-saving toilets, rotating sprinkler nozzles which use 20% less water and reduce runoff, and high-efficiency clothes washers (HECWs). In Orange County, rebates are also offered for synthetic turf and timers.

Long Beach/Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Homeowner Vacancy Rate

Some markets, such as Florida, have been hit harder than others in the current market. Each quarter the U.S. Census Bureau publishes renter and homeowner vacancy rates; the 2007 4th quarter rate for homeowner vacancy of 2.8% is the highest since it began collecting this information in the 1960's (see comment at end). But the 4th quarter is also typically the slowest time for the housing market in general--fewer home sales, fewer people moving due to the holidays, or taking a listed home off the market temporarily for the holiday period.

Not all markets are the same: the Long Beach-Los Angeles-Santa Ana corridor rate was 1.6%, much lower than Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Orlando, or Indianapolis, for example, yet we rarely hear about those markets in the news media, but rather how difficult the California market is due to the number of foreclosures, which are not the only reason a home may be vacant. A home may also be vacant due being not yet sold and the owner has moved on, or a home being converted to a rental, or has second-home or seasonal use, which is a growing factor among the baby-boomer generation. The West as a region showed a higher number of seasonal vacancies in the 2007 4th quarter than in 2006, while the overall year-round vacancy rate in the West remained the same for both periods. See the Census Bureau chart. The WSJ Online comment that vacancy rates are "matching" the highest level since the Census Bureau started collecting this information is misleading--since the Census Bureau in its own comment says that areas are redefined every 10 years, and states which sets of years are not comparable to each other, i.e., 2005 and later data is not comparable to data prior to 1986 (see bottom of chart page).

Also from: The Wall Street Journal Online, March 21, 2008

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California Median Prices are Down and Up

The most recent California median prices, as reported by Dataquick for November, 2007, vary by area (figures reflect houses and condos together):
In Long Beach, zip code 90803 which is Bluff Park, part of Belmont Heights, Naples, Belmont Shore area, there were only 7 sales reported, but the median price for a single family home increased by about 9% over November 2006 sales. The condo sale median price decreased in 90803 by about 14% (based on 3 sales), and decreased in 90802 (based on 21 sales) by about 6% compared to 2006. But, overall, Long Beach only declined .98% from November 2006.

Cerritos house prices declined about 15% from Nov. 2006; Lakewood and Downey declined 11% and 12%; San Pedro, with ocean views from elevated areas, appreciated over 4%.

Some areas, such as Lancaster and Tujunga, with more foreclosure and short pay incidents are suffering hits to their prices.

Los Angeles County's November 2007 median price overall declined 4.79% over November 2006.

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CAR's Annual Expo and Tradeshow

You've probably read in the news headlines by now that the median price in California is projected to fall by about 4% overall in 2008, a figure presented by Leslie Appleton-Young in her Wednesday 2008 forecast (112 slides linked).

Having heard presentations on Wednesday and Thursday by Leslie Appleton-Young, CAR's chief economist, Jack Kyser of the Los Angeles Economic Development Corporation, Frank Nothaft from Freddie Mac, and Richard Green of George Washington University, one consistent message was that the impact of borrowers taking negative amortization and other subprime loans they could not handle has affected certain states much more severely than was ever thought. Although these economic experts differed somewhat in their market recovery time projections, all agreed that 2008 would probably not be a year for the bottom of the foreclosure market impact, and that it could take 1-2 years beyond to see the end of this issue. Markets where borrowers did not enter the subprime loan arena are actually seeing a price stabilization or increase in home values--these include Idaho and Texas. In spite of the subprime loan issues (and all the media attention), the first reason people experience foreclosure is still due to loss of employment. Los Angeles County is more stable than other areas of the state. The buyers having the most difficult time are those in the $500,000 and lower price range--the loan picture has tightened and a 5% down loan and 100% financing is reviewed very stringently by lenders, although the softening in prices in many areas is helping first time buyer affordability.

It also should not be surprising that this year's seminars included foreclosures and short sales, and how they should be handled by agents, buyers and sellers. Buying opportunities are out there, and sellers who want to sell should present their homes and price them to sell, not to sit. Please remember that there are buyers buying and sellers selling right now, so if you'd like to consider how to be one of these, or for a free professional evaluation of your home's current market and selling price, please contact me.

For an MLS search, please go to http://www.juliahuntsman.com to see 3 choices in finding houses, condos, and up to 4 units. For a commercial property search, please contact me.

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Southern California's Hot Weather Breeds Mosquitoes

Last year's news on the West Nile virus is really still with us, so much so that the Department of Public Health for the State of California recently published a bulletin about standing water and green pools. It's mainly directed towards real estate managers and other property managers who might be concerned with vacant properties and unattended pools, but standing water could be a problem in a lot of locations, such as a chronic low point at a street intersection which catches the neighbor's lawn runoff.

"Standing water" in this bulletin is what has been in a pool for more than 7 days, it supposedly takes 7-10 days for "green pool" mosquito eggs to hatch.

It's easy enough to check for tubs or pots or other small containers around your property and overturn them if they are collecting water. Better yet, put them out of reach of falling water. Potted plants that are overwatered are also an ideal site for mosquito breeding--especially in very hot weather.

If a green pool, or stagnant fountain is around you, you can help by calling the number in this bulletin: "You can find your local agency on the California WNV website (www.westnile.ca.gov) on the right side under 'locate your local mosquito and vector control agency' or by calling 1-877-968-2473 (1-877-WNV-BIRD)."

Long Beach

CAR: July's California Median Home Price at $586,030

While the sales volume continues to decline, the median price in this state remains strong. July's median price for single family homes (excluding condominiums) is even a little higher than this time last year, according to the California Association of Realtors.

Partially responsible for this decrease in sales are the tighter lending guidelines--for buyers looking for 100% loans, they are much tougher to find. For all buyers, higher FICO scores are demanded, and some loan programs have disappeared all together. These changes affect the entry level buyers the most, as even a 95% loan-to-value program may be difficult to find.

110 out of 371 communities/cities in this state showed an increase in their median price compared to one year ago. Click on the title link of this article and see the 10 highest priced communities in the state, and the 10 with the greatest increase.

Condos have increased overall to a median price of $434,640, a 2.4% over one year ago.

Real estate is local, so median prices don't reflect changes up or down in other communities on a month-to-month basis.

Important to keep in mind: “It is important to note that decline in sales is not driven by weakening economic conditions ... Rather, the statewide and national economies continue to move forward, with no recession on the horizon at this point in time."

Not All Pricing Trends Are Down ...

. . . in fact, some are up. Writer Kenneth Harney, based in Washington D.C., reported August 12 about median price increases in Chevy Chase-Bethesda areas, by zip code.

In today's Los Angeles Times, a convenient interactive zip code finder is an interesting feature for finding median prices comparing July 2007 to July 2006. For instance, 90803, a Long Beach area of affluence, ocean views, and mixed single family residences, residential units, and condos, adjacent to the shoreline and a few blocks in, shows a median price increase from under $1,000,000 last year to over $1,000,000 this year, and an increase in the number of sales as well. Go to nearby zip code 90815, an area of mostly single family homes near a shopping center, schools and local libraries, and see the price and number of sales change upward only slightly since last year. On the other hand, Cerritos zip code 90703 has seen an 11% decrease in number of sales with a 3% median price decrease from $690,000 to $668,000 this year.
North Long Beach area 90805 has an 11% decrease in price and an almost 40% decrease in number of sales. This would be more the land of opportunity for the right buyer in the $400,000 price range for a house.

You may find, however, that data is different depending on which source you use: See the zip code chart published in Sunday editions of the Los Angeles Times.

While certain areas are more connected to subprime loans than others, an area of affluence is still not totally immune, since some borrowers stretched themselves to the limit to get into their new home of choice.

According to the Los Angeles Times article using data from Dataquick, "Los Angeles County's median price rose 5.3%, to $547,000, and sales slid 23%, and Orange County's median was flat at $640,000, as sales fell 19.8%."

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