Housing Market Review, Fewer Sales and More Listings on the Market

Sales volume down in So Calif

As one can see from the slide (presented at 2/27/19 talk by Joel Singer, CEO of California Association of Realtors) to the right, sales volume locally (and elsewhere) is down, and has been for some time--since April of 2008.

Another example of reduced 2018-2019 sales volume in Los Angeles and Orange Counties are in the two charts showing reduction by about 37% compared to January 2018 in LA; reduction by about 35% in OC. The median price for OC home declined $35,000--median price in LA stayed the same. INTERESTING!!

Sales volume change in Los Angeles County

Sales volume change in Orange County

 







In Long Beach, sales volume decreased about 5% in one year. The City of Orange had a 12% decrease in sales. But year-over-year median price home prices increased in Yorba Linda, Norwalk, Garden Grove, and elsewhere, whereas Long Beach/Lakewood have decreased by lesser amounts in price.

The essential points presented last week were:
"• Housing market conditions continue to soften | • Sales down double-digits despite recent decline in interest rates | • Price growth remains near lowest level since early 2012 | • Fundamentals are still solid | Window of opportunities for buyers"

The good news for buyers is that inventory statewide is the highest in almost 3 years.  Buyers and sellers have become so accustomed to a history of lowered inventory, it's time to be reminded that a normal market is about 6 months of inventory--we're still not there! The lowest price segment of $200,000 and lower has not seen an increase, however, and many buyers need that price point.  Long Beach in February, for example, had 2.5 months of inventory for single family homes, and that was a 38% increase over one year ago. We still need more units on the market.  The biggest recent increase of active listings on the market is in the Bay Area, 57% higher than last year.

Advice for sellers is to be reasonable in your asking prices, it's still a very good time to sell.  Buyers may take some encouragement as the inventory comes up!



Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Sales Volume, But Not Price, Down in Los Angeles and Orange Counties in 2018

Los Angeles County Median Sales

 One of the most immediately noticeable things about the two charts is the decline in number of sales in both Los Angeles County and Orange County in 2018 compared to 2017. 
LA County sales for both single family homes and condominiums declined about 40 percent in 2018, and the same for Orange County.

Yet the median sales prices increased.

 The price increase is also predicted for 2019, at a lower rate in some price categories.  The market under $600,000 continues to be the most competitive and sells more quickly.

Interest rate hikes are likely to be left alone for a while, and the Mortgage Bankers Association currently reports the highest level of mortgage applications since 2010.

In the continuing competitive real estate environment, buyers must be totally prepared with a complete loan pre-approval from a qualified lender, while sellers are advised to be realistic in pricing of properties.
 

Orange County Median Sales

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Los Angeles County, 2018 Year in Review

2018 Year in Review for LA County

This chart for 2018 is for single family homes only, it does not include condos.

Los Angeles County prices continue upward, albeit at a slower pace, while sales volume continues down.

The gap between original list price and sales price is widening a little to about 3% on a county wide basis.

Please contact me for confidential help on selling your property!


Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Local Counties, August 2018

Currently on Long Beach market for $474,999

All these prices are for the month of August, 2018, based on data from CRMLS Infosparks:

Average prices for single family homes in Orange County are $1,098,542, while Los Angeles County as a whole is now at $997,845, and San Bernardino County's average is at $371,677.

Average single family home prices vary according to area, and here's what they look like locally:

August, 2018

Long Beach
$759,955 | +10.7%

Lakewood
$609,570 | +5.2%

Cerritos
$825,082 | +6.6%

Los Angeles County
$977,845 | +7.7%

San Bernardino County
$381,677 | +6.7%

Orange County
$1,098,542 | +7.6%

These statistics show a mix of pricing, with Long Beach at an average days on market at 18 days, Lakewood at 18 days on market, and Cerritos at 22 days on the market on average.  Inventory time on market has increased in the three cities compared to April, up to 3 months (standard is 6 months), and closing prices still continue within 1.5% over or under the original price.  In other words, since the last analysis in April 2018, houses are still selling within 2% of original list price, with a lower time on the market, and a slightly higher  housing inventory from which to choose.   

Condos

Briefly, Long Beach condo average price is $437,911, about the same as in March, 2018. The condo average for Los Angeles County is $602,193, a slight decrease from last month. Other local city condo prices: Cerritos: $414,000 (increase from April);  Monterey Park, $559,875; Pasadena, $632,182 (decrease from April); Whittier, $352,089 (small decrease from April).

 It’s a somewhat looser market right now!

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! It pays to keep an eye on things.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Local Counties, April 2018

For a single family detached home, the average prices for the cities and counties below range from $381,718  to $1,141,966, the low price being in San Bernardino County.


Overall the Los Angeles County average price for single family home is $992,808, a small increase from the previous month of $969,831, and now exceeding the high of July 2017.

All these prices are for the month of April, 2018, based on data from CRMLS Infosparks.

Long Beach average price is slightly decreased from the prior month, but Orange County has surpassed the high of May, 2017, while Los Angeles County as a whole is now above the high of $955,973 in July 2017.  San Bernardino County's averages also exceed the earlier highs of $360,000, and is now at the the highest point in the last 5 years. Average single family home Pprices are varying according to area, and here's what they look like locally.

April 2018

Long Beach
$685,445 | -4.1%

Lakewood
$600,580 | +8.2%

Cerritos
859,816 | +5.2%

Los Angeles County
$992,808 | +9.0%

San Bernardino County
$381,718 | +11.2%

Orange County
$1,141,966 | +14.2%

These statistics show a mix of pricing, with Long Beach at an average days on market at 28 days, Lakewood at 24 days on market, and Cerritos at 34 days on the market on average.  Inventory is still at 2 months or less in all 3 cities, and closing prices continue within 1.5% over or under the original price.  In other words, since the last analysis in November 2017, houses are still selling within 2% of original list price, with less time on the market, and a low housing inventory from which to choose.   

Condos

Briefly, Long Beach condo average price is $395,639, a decrease from $437,000 last month. The condo average for Los Angeles County is $602,193, a slight decrease from last month. Other local city condo prices: Cerritos: $370,000;  Monterey Park, $439,500; Pasadena, $715,634; Whittier, $353,692.

 It’s a tight market right now!

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! It pays to keep an eye on things.

P.S. The photo is a door in Dublin, Ireland, where the housing market is pretty similar to our West Coast!

Julia Huntsman, Broker Realtor

Lic 01188996
www.juliahuntsman.com

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Local Counties, November 2017

It's that time of the year, where housing often slows down for the holidays, but here it's spending less time on the market.

For a single family detached home, the average prices for the cities and counties below range from $357,823  to $1,052,160, the low being San Bernardino County.

Overall the Los Angeles County average price for single family home is $923,612, a small increase from the previous month of $910,161, and still under the high of July 2017.

All these prices are for the month of November, 2017, based on data from CRMLS Infosparks.

Long Beach saw an average price decrease (but up from October), and Orange County is still  down just slightly from the high of May, 2017, while Los Angeles County as a whole is still decreased from the high of $955,973 in July.  San Bernardino County's averages have dipped under earlier highs of $360,000, the highest point in the last 5 years.

Prices are varying according to area, and here's what they look like locally.

November 2017

Long Beach
$667,858 | -0.7%

Lakewood
$570,839 | +2.8%

Cerritos
$776,412 | +9.9%

Los Angeles County
$923,612 | +5.3%

San Bernardino County
$357,823 | +5.3%

Orange County
$1,052,160  | +12.8%

These statistics show a mix of pricing, with Long Beach/Lakewood  with average days on market at 18 days, and Cerritos having less than 24 days on the market on average, less than 2 months inventory, and closing prices continuing within 0.7%-1.5% of original price.  In other words, houses are selling within 2% of original list price, with less time on the market, with a low housing inventory from which to choose.   

Condos

Briefly, Long Beach condo average price is $383,921, down from over $400,000 the month before. The condo average for Los Angeles County is $608,000. Other local city condo prices:  Monterey Park, $425,800; Pasadena, $713,622; Whittier, $353,692.

 It’s a tight market right now!

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! It pays to keep an eye on things.

 

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Local Counties, October 2017

Prices are varying according to area, and here's what they look like locally.
For a single family detached home, the average prices for the cities and counties below range from $364,271 to $1,052,322.

Overall the Los Angeles County average price for single family home is $903,618, a decrease from the previous month of $925,566, and even lower from July 2017.

All these prices are for the month of October, 2017, based on data from CRMLS.

Long Beach saw an average price decrease, and Orange County is still up slightly from July 2017, while Los Angeles County as a whole is still decreased from the high of $955,973 in July.  San Bernardino County's averages in September and October are now over $360,000, the highest point in the last 5 years.

October 2017

Long Beach
$646,002 | +5.3%

Lakewood
$558,111 | +1.8%

Cerritos
$795,732 | +17.9%

Los Angeles County
$903,618 | +3.9%

San Bernardino County
$364,271 | +6.9%

Orange County
$1,052,322 | +9.6%

These statistics show a mix of pricing, with Long Beach/Lakewood and Cerritos having less than 43 days on the market on average, approximately 2 months inventory, and closing prices continuing within 1%-2% of original price.

Keeping an eye on things

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! It pays to keep an eye on things.

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Orange County, August 2017

Prices are still going up, and here's what they look like locally.
For a single family detached home, the average prices in this group range from $579,687 to $1,019,768.

Overall the Los Angeles County average price for single family home is $905,787, a decrease from the previous month of $955,973.

All these prices are for the month of August, 2017, based on data from CRMLS.

Both Long Beach and Lakewood saw average price decreases from July, and Orange County is up slightly from July 2017, while Los Angeles County as a whole decreased from August's $955,973 in July.  San Bernardino County average has increased slightly since July, still under $360,000.

August 2017

Long Beach
$686,728 | +8.4%

Lakewood
$579,687 | +9.1%

Cerritos
$773,835 | +9.1%

Los Angeles County
$905,787 | +5.4%

San Bernardino County
$357,482 | +7.0%

Orange County
$1,019,768 | +4.9%

This statistic show a mix of pricing, with Long Beach/Lakewood and Cerritos having less than 30 days on the market on average, approximately 2 months inventory, and closing within 1-2% of original price.

Keeping an eye on things

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! It pays to keep an eye on things.

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Orange County, July 2017

 

Prices are still going up, and here's what they look like locally.

For a single family detached home, the average prices in this group range from $586,928 to $1,003,739, which represent increases between 1.3%-13.2% over June prices.

Overall the Los Angeles County average price for single family home is $956,939, an increase from the previous month (the median price is $610,000 for July).

All these prices are for the month of July, 2017, based on data from CRMLS.

Orange County as a whole has slowed to just over 1.3% from last month while Los Angeles County as a whole increased over 11% in July.  The areas with more lower priced homes (relatively speaking) are seeing bigger increases than Orange County, with overall higher priced homes, with a smaller percentage increase.

July 2017

Long Beach
$705,682 | +13.2%

Lakewood
$586,928 | +12.1%

Cerritos
$757,438 | +4.5%

Los Angeles County
$956,939 | +11.0%

San Bernardino County
$355,603 | +3.1%

Orange County
$1,003,739 | +1.3%

How much higher will things go?  Unknown, but as long as the interest rates are lower, and buyers are able to find sources for down payment funds, the end is not in sight according to many market experts.

If a buyer were interested in the average selling price of $350,000 for a house, then San Bernardino County (average at $355,000 in July) and the Inland Empire would be the place to search in Southern California, and Northern California in many counties, excluding the Bay Area, would hold some similar opportunities.

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! The future is yours.

Long Beach and Los Angeles County Selling Markets for June, 2017

It's an ever declining inventory in California.
For all of Los Angeles County in May, the median house price was $600,000, vs. $555,000 in May 2016.  Yet the sales volume decreased by 30% in that time period.

The California statewide median home price continued over $500,000, as the competition for lower priced homes keeps pushing the overall trend upward.  The number of active listings has decreased by over 13% compared to one year ago.

In Long Beach, it's a similar story. New listings are down over 7%, pending sales down almost 40%, and days on market are less than 50% of last year, but median and average sales prices of single family homes are up 5% and 6%.   The inventory is less than 3 months supply. And the list-to-sell ratio is often at 100%, or higher. In the last 30 days, only 211 single family homes sold in Long Beach, and average days on market was 26 days, with an average closing price of $701,000, per the MLS, at a los $275,000 to $3.5 million.

Yet, sellers must be reminded that unless they have an all cash buyer, current financing regulations dictate certain conditions for the borrower, and ultimately for the seller.  And buyers expect a well-prepared property. Favorable for everyone is that fact that mortgage rates continue to be low at this time.

If you're thinking of selling, please contact me for a competent estimate of market value of your home! Or go to www.juliahuntsman.com for a quick automated estate give to you online.

Housing Market and Inventory Shortage in Los Angeles County

Buyers still experience a great deal of competition when submitting offers. I know of one recent instance where an offer for a $450,000 house was submitted at $10,000 over asking, but the buyers were still outbid. This is and has been a very frustrating fact of life for quite some time.

 As it happens, Los Angeles County has far more jobs than new housing permits issued compared to any other county in California. Santa Clara and Orange Counties are the next most underbuilt counties. This did not happen overnight, but happened over several years, and estimates are that it will take several more years to "catch up".

 Other reasons for low inventory is that the Baby Boomer generation and/or longtime homeowners are not moving as much as in the past. The recession featured very low interest rates, or they may have lower property taxes, or if they move there may be a capital gains hit due to rise in prices ($250,000 for single, $500,000 for couple), there is the question of where can they move to, or their circumstances may have changed and they cannot qualify for the same mortgage today--so they stay put.

In California in the 1970s, there was about a 9% turnover rate, in 2014 that rate had declined to less than 5%. In 2000, California sellers stayed put for about 6 years (national average was about 7 years); as of 2016, that average length of stay was 10 years. Californians 55+ years of age are now at their lowest rate of moving -- 71% of the 55+ crowd has not moved since 1999. Data from the construction industry reveals $3.9 billion was invested in remodels and additions compared to $1.5 billion in 1988. In San Francisco alone, there are currently between 400,000 and 700,000 rentals that used to be owner-occupied, in other words, those are properties taken out of the purchase market. Another interesting effect is formulation of households -- not as many people getting married and wanting to buy a new home for a new family! Additional effects on the housing market could be future policy changes concerning the mortgage interest deduction and outmigration to more affordable areas (which at least might put some properties on the market).
Political uncertainties and Twitter bursts are essentially wildcards for certain aspects of the housing market.
 For buyers, is it impossible?  No, but it's extremely important to be prepared with local market knowledge, and prior loan approval before shopping.

Sales Volume in Los Angeles County is Down, Prices Continue Upward in 2016

Long Beach, a great city to live in.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached Los Angeles County home rose in March to $545,000 from $535,250 in February. The March 2015 median price was $510,000.  All data comes from Realist. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values.

But while prices are going up in the County as a whole, sales volume has decreased dramatically:
the number of single family homes sold in March 2016 was 1,853; in February, 2016 it was 3,924; in March 2015 homes sold was 6,380 and in February, 2015 it was 5,109.  This is a sales volume decrease of 50% and greater compared to the same time last year.

The 2016 sales volume for Orange County is a similar picture, but with lower numbers: total SFR sales are 1432 and 1407 for February and January, respectively.

Less inventory means much more competition for buyers in Long Beach, especially in the lower prices range under $500,000 which sell in 40-60 days on average (or less), while properties in the $1,000,000-plus range are on the market for well over 90 days on average.

While housing prices continue upward, housing affordability in California is increasingly a topic of concern.  Another indication of housing prices is that investors are buying fewer single family and multi-family properties.  California Association of Realtors's 2016 California Investor Survey found 10 percent of real estate investors purchased more of the other types of properties, such as commercial, land, and mobile homes, in the past year compared to previous years.

Lack of inventory, especially in Southern California, can be an issue for sellers who want to move on--but for those moving out of the area, or for those who have all cash for a purchase, the ability to move on may be much easier, and would bring more housing inventory onto the local market for sale. From that standpoint, it's a good time to sell while interest rates are still so low.  Please contact me for a customized report on home value for your property!

February Home Prices in the Long Beach Area for February 2016

February 2016 Los Angeles County Sales

Why the sluggishness in sales?  The ripple down from the top tier of sales is being felt:  "In markets like Oakland, Portland and Washington, the prices for high-end homes are rapidly rising — the rungs of the ladder are moving further apart — and that makes it harder for people who own mid-tier homes to trade up. And when they get stuck, people who own starter homes have a harder time trading up, too."  http://preview.tinyurl.com/gpdc3lj  San Francisco could easily be mentioned too.

It's always speculated in an election year that sales are affected, but it is more likely due to higher prices and lower affordability overall.  

In Los Angeles County, the median priced home in February, 2016 was $530,000 (up from $457,870 in January, 2016), and condos were at $450,000, (up from $409,000 in January, 2016). However, the February sales volume for each type was less than half of the prior year volume, and well below January sales numbers.

Below are average prices for Cerritos, Long Beach, Lakewood , and Seal Beach single family homes.  The four cities have changed between -1.8% to 14% from January.  Current average price - Long Beach $637,112; Cerritos - $682,431; Lakewood $4501,775; Seal Beach $1,066,938.

Average condominium prices increased only in Long Beach, by 22.8%, and are ranging from $237,666 (Cerritos) to $289,667 (Seal Beach), $292,500 (Lakewood) and $379,522 (Long Beach).

While there is an increase in Long Beach average home price, it has the advantage of offering greater types and prices in the housing market compared to surrounding cities.  Still a good time to buy with lower interest rates!

Recent Market Stats for the City of Long Beach Selling Price vs. Los Angeles and Orange Counties

Long Beach and Los Angeles County are almost on par with average selling price of a single family home. See the live interactive data on the chart.

New California Bill Will Cost Property Owners Addtional Recording Fees

Since the downfall in the economy and the upswing in distressed property sales, sellers of short sale properties were not taxed by the federal government on what was called "unearned income".  Thus, if the loan balance before the sale was $200,000, but the owner could only sell at $150,000 as the current market value, there was no IRS tax on the difference and mortgage debt was forgiven.  California's Franchise Tax Board followed the IRS provision, so there was no California tax either.

But that state provision was due to expire and the bill to renew that provision, SB 30, has been up for vote by the Assembly and the Senate. However, a surprise amendment last May added Senate Bill 391 (California Homes and Jobs Act of 2013), and now is tied to the first bill and which includes a provision that requires a $75.00 recording tax to all recorded documents, which could be as many as 28 different types of documents, on a property.  The idea behind SB 391 is to fund a low-income housing trust with these $75 fees.  Bear in mind, not only the California Association of Realtors objected to this, but also the county recorders, assessors and title industry opposed this bill.

If the current impasse isn't overcome in the next few days, homeowners who sold a short sale this year might end up with a big tax bill.

Some people think that only "irresponsible" people are involved with short sales (really? what about if you just lost value in your home because the market went down?), however as one person recently pointed out:  "Why should just one subset of society, those that happen to need to record a document, be on the hook for funding subsidized housing?"  So true, jskdn, who wrote to The Sacramento Bee. 

27388.1.

 (a) (1) Commencing January 1, 2014, and except as provided in paragraph (2), in addition to any other recording fees specified in this code, a fee of seventy-five dollars ($75) shall be paid at the time of recording of every real estate instrument, paper, or notice required or permitted by law to be recorded except those expressly exempted from payment of recording fees. “Real estate instrument, paper, or notice” means a document relating to real property, including, but not limited to, the following: deed, grant deed, trustee’s deed, deed of trust, reconveyance, quit claim deed, fictitious deed of trust, assignment of deed of trust, request for notice of default, abstract of judgment, subordination agreement, declaration of homestead, abandonment of homestead, notice of default, release or discharge, easement, notice of trustee sale, notice of completion, UCC financing statement, mechanic’s lien, maps, and covenants, conditions, and restrictions.

Don't panic yet, home sales are excluded (normally there's about two recorded documents on a home sale).  But to return to the low-income housing trust fund, Dan Walter of The Sacramento Bee states: "One of the rare times the supermajority functioned was last spring when the Senate voted 27-0 for Senate Bill 391, which would impose fees on real estate transaction documents to raise money for low-income housing, at least $300 million a year."   This is another great example of how real estate is seen as the mother's milk for every funding idea/tax/fee that comes along.  $300 million to be gained from recording fees?  I wish there was an explanation for that projected amount of income. 

Did someone count 4,000,000 documents recorded statewide last year?

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2013/09/06/5711663/dan-walters-posion-pill-would.html#mi_rss=Dan%20Walters#storylink=cpy

California County Tax Assessors Are Sending Notices About Property Tax Increases

Do you know about the increase of impending property tax assessments?

A precedent setting California court case allows county assessors to recapture tax cuts as real estate values recover their losses.

Citing a practice called “value restoration” or recapture”, County Assessor's offices throughout the state are sending out notices this week.

County Assessor's offices say they can raise taxes by more than Proposition 13's two percent limit when home prices rebound for properties that had prior assessment reduction; plus two percent each  year for every year they‘ve owned the property.

Many homeowners who got tax cuts during the recession will see their taxable values rise as much as seventeen percent this year.

The California Supreme Court affirmed assessors' right to do this after Seal Beach lawyer Robert Pool lost his court fight to block the Los Angeles County Assessor (and all California assessors) from recapturing lost assessment values after the 1990s housing market crash.

This week 31,803 Orange County homeowners face that same shock via a “blue notice” in the mail.

The Assessor's Office must notify property owners by mail by July 20th. 

Property owners have until Sept. 16, 2013 to file an appeal with the Clerk of the Board of Supervisors. 

Summary for Recent Real Estate Trends at end of 2012

Happy New Year for 2013 -- there are positive signs in the housing market, and we hope that they will continue!

Pending home sales continue to rise (Pending means those in escrow, scheduled to close), as shown by the Pending Homes Sales Index which rose nationally by 1.7%, and is at the highest level in the last two-and-one-half years.  Pending homes sales have risen consecutively for the last 19 months.
The November median price for a single family home in the Los Angeles Metropolitan Area rose to $327,840 from $269,440 in November, 2011!  The share of distressed sales (mostly REOs and short sales) for single family homes in the Los Angeles area has decreased to 35% from 46% one year ago.

The market is not determined just by whether the prices go up or down, there are a lot of other factors, including whether or not sellers are motivated to sell because that in turn depends on other economic factors which create the movement in housing.  Inventory is a big issue right now, no question of it.

How will the "fiscal cliff" measures affect real estate (still not resolved as of this moment)?  An unrenewed date for the Mortgage Debt Relief Act will require homeowners who went through short sales, loan modifications and other resolutions to pay taxes on forgiven debt. And will the mortgage interest tax deduction be reduced or removed? That will affect most homeowners in the country if that happens.

Will borrowers be subjected to new mortgage rules in 2013? The lending environment is already stringent, making it difficult even for some 20% down borrowers, so buyers should be aware if how conventional vs. FHA loan opportunities could work for them in the future. The topic of "qualified mortgage" rules is being examined in the coming year, and the big question is will it mean that all borrower for conventional loans be required to put down a minimum of 20%--that's a tough hill to climb.

There is some good news in the housing market now, but it will need economic support in a variety of ways to keep that going.

If you have a reason to sell, please contact me for a free evaluation of your home's value! Find properties at www.juliahuntsman.com for the latest area listings of all residential properties.

What is For Sale Under $300,000 in Long Beach?

MLS R1205418 - Click to see listing

Periodically (maybe once a year) I've been tracking this price range about affordable properties in Long Beach. 
One thing to know since my last post on this subject in May, 2012:  The market has changed, and for more than one reason.  Not only are prices going up in some areas, but at the same time there is far less inventory than even just a few months ago. 

Currently, in the MLS, the total number of active listings for $300,000 or less for single family homes, condominiums, lofts, own-your-owns, and coops comes to the grand total of 167 as of this date.  Compare that to 618 properties in May of 2011.

 

The breakdown is as follows:

• Single family homes (some of which homeowner association listings in PUDs) comprise 62;
• There are 80 condominiums listed;
• There are 7 coops (similar to condos but have different property tax arrangements)
• No lofts in this price range;
• There are 18 own-your-owns listed (also similar to condos but different property tax mode)

The number of listings is down due to various market forces, not the least of which is fewer distressed properties on the market. In general, market inventory has decreased by 60-75% since this time last year.  Also, the market prices are actually increasing compared to October of 2011, sometimes by as much as 20% on a month/year to month/year comparison in some zip codes of Long Beach.  See a south Los Angeles County/north Orange County regional report for overall market trends for areas including Lakewood, Cerritos, Huntington Beach, Newport Beach and inland cities including Fullerton.  While the picture may vary individually within each city or zip code, the trends are reported here.

There are even more complex trends within the picture presented here, such as the future of the mortgage debt relief  forgiveness being uncertain which is probably impacting some short sale sellers from putting their property on the market, whether or not there is "shadow inventory" which will be added to the market in 2013 (that's another topic of discussion).

For a property search of these areas go this property search tab, where all types of properties, including 2,3, and 4 units, may be searched throughout Long Beach, Los Angeles County and Orange County and all cities in Southern California. (Currently, all active, backup and pending status listings are shown in this search.)

Are you thinking of selling? Please contact me.

What's the 2013 Prediction for California Home Prices?

Assumptions:

The PITI is based on the prevailing median price in the

2nd Quarter 2012. The PITI is calculated based on an

 underlying effective FRM interest rate of 3.92%,

 a 20% downpayment,

and corresponding loan amount.

The monthly rent is derived from

RealFacts Q2 2012 estimates for a

3bd 2ba average asking rent.

The California Association of Realtors annual conference was held earlier this month in Anaheim.  The 2013 Forecast extensively covered all phases of the residential market, with a total of 136 PowerPoint slides as part of CAR economist Leslie Appleton-Young's annual presentation. 

At the closing section, Market Opportunities for 2013, four points were made:  1) Home prices are rising, but still very attractive; 2) Look for return on interest for investment opportunities; 3) interest rates are at historic lows; and finally, 4) first-time buyers: rent v. buy?  Do The Math!.

The current story for many buyers and sellers has twists and turns all along the road, but it's still a time to not be passed up!

For California, the median price of a single family home is projected to rise in 2013 from $317,000 at the end of 2012 up to $335,000 in 2013.  At this point, buyers are more optimistic than sellers about future home prices:  49% of sellers think prices will go down in one year, and 9% of sellers think they will go up.  But while 49% of buyers think prices will stay flat, 25% of buyers think prices will go up.  And those buyers are probably going to be right--last year the projected price increase for 2012 was for a 1.7% increase, but the current projected actual increase by the end of 2012 is 10.9% increase.

Median home price for So Cal Counties

The median home price in Los Angeles County went up over 10% from August 2011 to August 2012, with REO sales making up only 12% and short sales making up 24% of the total sales in August 2012.

Los Angeles and Orange Counties Home Price Snapshot

Orange County's median single family home price was Orange County $567,710 in August 2012, up from $551,160 in July 2012, and up from $508,910 in August 2011.

Median price of a single family home in Los Angeles County was $344,770 in August 2012, up from $334,190 in July 2012, and up from $312,900 in August 2011.