Los Angeles County, 2018 Year in Review

2018 Year in Review for LA County

This chart for 2018 is for single family homes only, it does not include condos.

Los Angeles County prices continue upward, albeit at a slower pace, while sales volume continues down.

The gap between original list price and sales price is widening a little to about 3% on a county wide basis.

Please contact me for confidential help on selling your property!


Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Average Sales Prices Mostly UP in Selected Long Beach Areas, Signal Hill and Lakewood for 2018

Lately, the internet is full of stories about softening prices, but it turns out to not be all true.  It depends on the city and overall region.  But take a look at these stats, taken directly from the CRMLS, which happens to be the largest MLS in the country with 96,000 subscribers and another 143,000 agents in participating MLS's.

Below are the average sales prices for single family homes, with the sales count for that period in parentheses (  ).  It was a little different than I expected--I chose these areas in Long Beach as representative of single family homes for different points in the city, and then chose Lakewood and Signal Hill as entire cities.

As you will see below, in most cases, for 2018, both average sales price and sales volume increased in the second 5 months of the year, compared to the first 6 months--not what I expected to see, especially in the highest price area of the city where properties are spending more time on the market.

Long Beach

Area 1 - Naples, Belmont Shore/Park, Marina Pacifica, Bay Harbor - UP
1/1 - 6/1 --   $1,220,951    (71)
6/2 - 12/1 -- $1,588,024    (90)

Area 2 - Belmont Heights, Alamitos Heights, Bluff Park - UP
1/1 - 6/1 --   $996,377       (44)
6/2 - 12/1 -- $1,106,803    (63)

Area 5 - Wrigley Area - UP
1/1/ - 6/1 --   $538,908      (50)
6/2 - 12/1 --  $574,446      (63)

Area 6 - Bixby, Bixby Knolls, Los Cerritos, California Hts - MIXED
1/1 - 6/2 --   $760,435        (101)
6/2 - 12/1 -- $749,131        (107)

Area 7 - North Long Beach - UP
1/1/ - 6/1 --  $447,282         (100)
6/2 - 12/1 -- $464,851         (165)

Areas 31,32,33,34 - Los Altos, Conant, Ranchos, Plaza, Stratford Square - UP
1/1/ - 6/1 --  $696,026         (187)
6/2 - 12/1 -- $716,253         (252)

City of Signal Hill - UP
1/1/ - 6/1 --  $747,303         (27)
6/2 - 12/1 -- $872,874         (23)

City of Lakewood - UP
1/1/ - 6/1 --  $589,653         (314)
6/2 - 12/1 -- $612,165         (401)

If you are interested in selling for 2019, or would just like some idea at this point of your market value, please contact me directly via text, phone or email.


Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

What's Ahead for the California Real Estate Market in 2019?

The annual California Association of Realtors Trade Show was held earlier in October, and it's always the time for the next year's market prediction.  So the main points are:

Calif Market Outlook 2019

• There will be modest decline in sales volume to 3.3% for 2019 for single family homes, or a total of 396,800 units, down from the projected 2018 sales figure of 410,460. The 2018 figure is 3.2 percent lower compared with the 424,100 pace of homes sold in 2017. In other words, 2019 will be about 7% lower in sales volume from 2017.
• The California median home price is forecast to increase 3.1 percent to $593,450 in 2019, following a projected 7.0 percent increase in 2018 to $575,800.  
• Fixed mortgage rates to rise to 5.2%.
• “The surge in home prices over the past few years due to the housing supply shortage has finally taken a toll on the market,” said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “Despite an improvement in supply conditions, there is a high level of uncertainty about the direction of the market that is affecting homebuying decisions. This psychological effect is creating a mismatch in price expectations between buyers and sellers and will limit price growth in the upcoming year.”  
• Outmigration, from the home county or from the state, is a concern, in 2018, 28 percent of homebuyers moved out of the county in which they previously resided. 29 percent of sellers moving out of California, up 10 percent from 2013.
• New housing supply, big issue.
• Affordability: Move to Lassen County or Kern County for lowest prices in U.S.,  least affordable areas in U.S. are Los Angeles, San Diego, San Jose, Oxnard, San Francisco 
• California is home to largest number of homeless. 
• New York and California have lowest rate of homeownership, Michigan and West Virginia have the highest.
• In 2017, cities with lower renter rates (under 50%) ,were Lakewood, Menifee, Temecula, Whittier, Yorba Linda, while over 50% cities are Long Beach, Bellflower, Alhambra, Costa Mesa, Pasadena, to name a few. 
• 
  
• So now could be the time for buyers to get moving before rates go any higher, maintain good credit (or improve your score now), and find the best loan out there.
• Please contact me for any help to buy or sell: Sellers, prices are very favorable for you and will continue to be, so contact me for your moving plans!
 

 

 

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Local Counties, August 2018

Currently on Long Beach market for $474,999

All these prices are for the month of August, 2018, based on data from CRMLS Infosparks:

Average prices for single family homes in Orange County are $1,098,542, while Los Angeles County as a whole is now at $997,845, and San Bernardino County's average is at $371,677.

Average single family home prices vary according to area, and here's what they look like locally:

August, 2018

Long Beach
$759,955 | +10.7%

Lakewood
$609,570 | +5.2%

Cerritos
$825,082 | +6.6%

Los Angeles County
$977,845 | +7.7%

San Bernardino County
$381,677 | +6.7%

Orange County
$1,098,542 | +7.6%

These statistics show a mix of pricing, with Long Beach at an average days on market at 18 days, Lakewood at 18 days on market, and Cerritos at 22 days on the market on average.  Inventory time on market has increased in the three cities compared to April, up to 3 months (standard is 6 months), and closing prices still continue within 1.5% over or under the original price.  In other words, since the last analysis in April 2018, houses are still selling within 2% of original list price, with a lower time on the market, and a slightly higher  housing inventory from which to choose.   

Condos

Briefly, Long Beach condo average price is $437,911, about the same as in March, 2018. The condo average for Los Angeles County is $602,193, a slight decrease from last month. Other local city condo prices: Cerritos: $414,000 (increase from April);  Monterey Park, $559,875; Pasadena, $632,182 (decrease from April); Whittier, $352,089 (small decrease from April).

 It’s a somewhat looser market right now!

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! It pays to keep an eye on things.

Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996

Long Beach Housing Inventory

 We're hearing more talk about market slowing, a little early for this time of year.

There's still far less than the traditional months of inventory on the market, i.e., 6 months meaning how long it would take to sell what's currently for sale.  In Long Beach, it's almost the same for both single family homes and for condos:  2.4-2.7 months of inventory. 

And yet, the number of sales compared to June of last year is down about 28%, while the average sales price for houses and condos are UP!  This is also true on the state level, according to California Association of Realtors: "June marked the fifth consecutive month that prices increased by more than 8 percent annually, indicating that price appreciation remains robust and is not showing any signs of leveling off."  But Orange County experienced one of the biggest declines in number of sales, all counties experienced a decline however, possibly due to buyer fatigue at rising prices.

Many younger buyers are able to get some financial help from families who may aid with down payments, which is a great help for them. One surprising fact is that single women over 55 are a growing segment of buyers, citing rising rent costs as a reason, not for the purpose of purchasing multigenerational housing.

Interest rates are remaining the same for right now, but a possible increase is hinted at in September. The mortgage lenders and banks, however, usually anticipate an increase in advance and build it into their scenarios in advance, but other global market effects come into play also, and there can even be a decrease in rates!

Currently, the average days on market for all 228 Long Beach single family homes currently in escrow is 45 days. It's a very good time to sell and find a new home.

For more information about selling, please contact me!


Julia Huntsman, REALTOR, Broker | www.juliahuntsman.com | 562-896-2609 | California Lic. #01188996, representing buyers and sellers since 1994.

Average Selling Prices in Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood, and Local Counties, November 2017

It's that time of the year, where housing often slows down for the holidays, but here it's spending less time on the market.

For a single family detached home, the average prices for the cities and counties below range from $357,823  to $1,052,160, the low being San Bernardino County.

Overall the Los Angeles County average price for single family home is $923,612, a small increase from the previous month of $910,161, and still under the high of July 2017.

All these prices are for the month of November, 2017, based on data from CRMLS Infosparks.

Long Beach saw an average price decrease (but up from October), and Orange County is still  down just slightly from the high of May, 2017, while Los Angeles County as a whole is still decreased from the high of $955,973 in July.  San Bernardino County's averages have dipped under earlier highs of $360,000, the highest point in the last 5 years.

Prices are varying according to area, and here's what they look like locally.

November 2017

Long Beach
$667,858 | -0.7%

Lakewood
$570,839 | +2.8%

Cerritos
$776,412 | +9.9%

Los Angeles County
$923,612 | +5.3%

San Bernardino County
$357,823 | +5.3%

Orange County
$1,052,160  | +12.8%

These statistics show a mix of pricing, with Long Beach/Lakewood  with average days on market at 18 days, and Cerritos having less than 24 days on the market on average, less than 2 months inventory, and closing prices continuing within 0.7%-1.5% of original price.  In other words, houses are selling within 2% of original list price, with less time on the market, with a low housing inventory from which to choose.   

Condos

Briefly, Long Beach condo average price is $383,921, down from over $400,000 the month before. The condo average for Los Angeles County is $608,000. Other local city condo prices:  Monterey Park, $425,800; Pasadena, $713,622; Whittier, $353,692.

 It’s a tight market right now!

For an online and automated home valuation, try my site at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/home-evaluation.  It probably works more accurately for single family homes than condos in some areas, depending on what properties lie within about a one-mile radius.  Try it!  And I am always happy to do a more customized report to send out via e-mail.  If you're thinking about making a move, do it! It pays to keep an eye on things.

 

California Housing Market Forecast for 2018

The 2018 California Association of Realtors Housing Market Forecast was released at this month's annual trade show. 

As low housing supply and affordability constraints continue, the 2018 California market is expected to have a "nominal increase" over 2017, up to 4.2% increase in median price, and mortgage rates for 30 yr fixed rate mortgage going to 4.3%.

The proposed tax reforms under the Trump Administration are projected to lead to fewer sales, by 3.4%, accompanied by a decline in home values due to homeowner reluctance to put house on market as homeownership advantages disappear for homebuyers.  The housing supply could drop by 1.5% in the first year if this tax reform is implemented.

At the present, however, the California median price continues to rise, with the statewide median price at $565,330.  This is still not up to the overall market peak in May of 2007 of $594,230.  Orange County, however, has exceed that peak price by 1.8%, the only area in Southern California to do so.  In the Bay Area, five counties have exceed the peak 2007 price by as much as 42% (San Francisco). 
Housing inventory has declined everywhere, with the most inventory in the multi-million dollar market.  The California housing turnover rate is less than the U.S. rate for single family homes--longtime homeowners are staying put for reasons including capital gains hits, and "where can I afford to go"?  Another housing supply problem are the number of single family homes converted to rentals, in San Francisco estimated to be between 400,000 and 700,000 homes formerly owner occupied but now rented.

Housing affordability in California is now at 29%, and 28% for Los Angeles County, 21% for Orange County. 

• Median age for buyers - 45
• Median age for sellers - 57
• One-third of transactions sold above asking price, 6 out of 10 had multiple offers.
• The majority of first time and repeat buyers are in Southern California.
• Fewer international buyers, fewer buyers from China.
• Net cash gain to sellers highest since 2006.
• More sellers are moving out of California, but 38% are staying in the same county.
• List to sell ratio in Southern California at 98.9%.
• Lack of inventory considered one of the biggest challenges for the 2018 market, affordability another challenge.  Total sales are projected to be only 1% higher than 2017.

For the complete presentation pdf, go to http://www.juliahuntsman.com/market-trends-report.html, where, by the way, you can also search for your new home or get an estimated value report on your existing one.

Sales in Los Angeles County: Prices Still Continuing Upward in 2017

The median price of an existing, single-family detached Los Angeles County home rose in April 2017 to $595,000 from $570,000 in March. The March 2016 median price was $542,000.  All data comes from CoreLogic. The median sales price is the point at which half of homes sold for more and half sold for less; it is influenced by the types of homes selling as well as a general change in values.

The median price of an existing, single-family detached Los Angeles County home rose in April 2017 to $595,000.

But while prices are going up in the County as a whole, sales volume has decreased in the Spring:
the number of single family homes sold in April 2017 was 4,524; in March, 2017 it was 6,051; in March 2016 homes sold was 6,329.  This is a lower but similar sales volume compared to the same time last year.

The 2017 sales volume for Orange County is a similar picture, but with much lower sales numbers: total SFR sales thus far are 1772 and 2469 for April and March, respectively, with median price at $745,000 for both months.

Less inventory means much more competition for buyers in Long Beach.  In the past month, the lower price range under $500,000 sells on average in 25 days on average (overbidding and multiple offers is common), while properties in the $1,000,000-plus range are on the market for 62 days on average.

While housing prices continue upward, housing affordability in California is increasingly a topic of concern.  Another indication of housing prices is that investors are buying fewer single family and multi-family properties.  California Association of Realtors 2016 California Investor Survey found 10 percent of real estate investors purchased more of the other types of properties, such as commercial, land, and mobile homes, in the past year compared to previous years.

Lack of inventory continues, especially in Southern California, and is still an issue for sellers who want to move on--but for those moving out of the area, or for those who have all cash for a purchase, the ability to move on may be much easier, and would bring more housing inventory onto the local market for sale. From that standpoint, it's a good time to sell while interest rates are still low. 

Please contact me for a customized report on home value for your property! And while most people are little uncertain about them, reverse mortgages as a new purchase can be a good purchase tool for the right buyer 62 and over.
 (See the 2016 post on this:  https://longbeachrealestate.blogspot.com/2016/04/sales-volume-in-los-angeles-county-is.html)

Current State of the Real Estate Market in Long Beach

Conditions for property sales have largely returned to normal, meaning there are very few distressed properties or "special condition" issues on the market.

Out of a total of 401 active listings for single family homes and condominiums in currently on the Long Beach market, as listed in the Realtor multiple listing service, there are:

• 381 standard sales
• 4 foreclosures
• 4 notices of default
• 8 real estate owned, including HUD
• 6 short sales
• 4 probate sales
• 2 requiring third party approval 

In other words, the market from 5-7 years ago which featured a minimum of 35%-50% distressed listings in many areas, both in California and across the country, has improved to a market of majority regular sales.

In the last 90 days (4th quarter of 2016), 562 single family homes sold in Long Beach as "regular" sale, at an average price of $652,936 (ranging from $199,000 to $3,790,000).

In the prior 90 days (3rd quarter of 2016), the MLS reports 563 Long Beach single family homes sold at an average price of $664,070 (ranging from $200,000 to $4,750,000).  So in Long Beach, the overall pricing has been fairly stable for a house for about the last 6 months, based on data from the MLS. As it has for multiple years now, inventory remains in the 2-3 months level, which is what creates more competition among the active buyers and a decentivized seller market which ends up staying put, not finding what they would move on to.

What will happen in 2017 in the bigger picture?  The median California house price is predicted to rise a little over 4%, housing affordability still going down, but sales volume is expected to rise over 2016. There are lots of market variables: global market changes (Brexit); increasing conventional interest rates for some (so far VA and FHA rates are still lower), but interest rates are still very low compared to earlier market cycles; foreclosed houses bought up and turned into rentals; the fact that California is delayed in construction of new units and will probably not catch up for years with the population growth; and also, affordability challenges for first-time and lower income buyers, a very big issue; plus, the baby boomers staying in place, and not moving like their parents did, which means fewer listings on the market (just one of the reasons for depressed inventory).

One thing helping buyers are down payment assistance programs, CalHFA being one, another are two-income families with documented income, and a third is the persistance to become a homeowner.

Please contact me for information about selling, I am also able to search out information in more distant markets which may help a seller in their decision to relocate.