Long Beach Market Absorption Rates

The absorption rate is how long the current inventory will remain on the market at the current rate of selling. In all price ranges shown, there are more properties currently in escrow than have closed escrow in the last 30 days. Hopefully that means that the economic stimulus package and temporary increase in loan amounts is bringing a surge in activity.

Here are several different listing and selling price range categories for all properties (commercial/residential but mostly residential including large multiunits) in Long Beach listed on the MLS as of 4/9/2008:

$1 million plus listing price:
260 active listings; 10 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 107 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 26 months. But in this price range there are currently 26 in escrow (backup and pending).

$600,000-$699,000 listing price:
207 active listings; 17 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 76 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 12 months. There are 34 in escrow (backup and pending).

$500,000-$599,000 listing price:
296 active listings; 31 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 98 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 9.5 months. Currently there are 56 in escrow.

$400,000-$499,000 listing price:
433 active listings; 41 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 87 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 10.5 months. Currently there are 88 in escrow.

$300,000-$399,000 listing price:
476 active listings; 29 sold in the last 30 days at an average of 75 days on the market; Market Absorption Rate is 16 months. Currently there are 75 in escrow.

Per the MLS, there are 2664 active listings and 443 properties in escrow in Long Beach.

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Distressed Listings in Long Beach, Cerritos and Huntington Beach

Some buyers are thinking that foreclosure and/or short sale properties (they owe more than they will net from the sale) are in every neighborhood where the buyer would most like to live. Not true, and it's been the source of misunderstanding, and sometimes frustration, for people who might otherwise make a move right now. A short sale is not necessarily the way to go: There are "normal" listings of non-distressed properties priced just as advantageously; plus, a short sale is in the hands of the bank, not the seller, and the bank. Fathom7's 3/31/08 entry on the Redfin site says, "Add to this the matter of the short sale taking a long (sometimes interminable time to complete) and these properties become amazingly undesirable. What I don't understand is that rather than take a rational offer for the home, the bank and the still-present-owners appear to prefer foreclosure over accepting a short offer on the short sale. somebody is getting something but nothing gets accomplished for the buyer," (It's true, some banks are not clearly understanding that foreclosure is usually a more expensive process than accepting a buyer's offer and taking a loss), and,
"Here's one example of what I have been dealing with: I have had interest in a particular house – the asking was outside of what I wanted to spend for that house (too many compromises for the premium price). Then , the price took a drop. No sooner had I discovered this when I learned that it too is a short sale. The “listed” price is also short of what is owed and thus is not the real price the bank is going to take. This one too is likely on it's way to foreclosure."

First of all, the short sale status should always be disclosed up front in the MLS so that it's not a surprise to the buyer (however, the price reduction could have been the beginning of the short sale), and second, Fathom7's observation that it's on its way to foreclosure is probably very accurate, because if there's a non-distressed property at or near the same list price, it's going to be an easier pick; third, there are plenty of distressed properties in some areas, but maybe not in the ones you want.

Distressed properties may be ranging from 1.5% of the market up to a 33% or more, in different areas.

Market samples:

Zip code 90803 (Bluff Park, Belmont Shore, Belmont Heights, Naples) - Single family: 5 properties listed as short pay and/or pre-foreclosure, out of 109 single family listings, or 5.5% of the MLS listings are distressed. Condos: 6 properties listed as short pay/NOD (notice of default), out of a total of 55 listings, or about 11% are distressed condos.

Zip code 90802 (downtown Long Beach, Alamitos Beach) - Single family: 8 properties listed in short pay and/or NOD, out of 19 houses, or 42% are distressed. Condos: 36 short pay properties, an additional 6 also as pre-foreclosure, are listed out of 278 condos, or about 15% are distressed properties. (This zip code has a higher percentage of multi-unit housing compared to other areas in Long Beach.)

Zip code 90807 (California Heights, Bixby Knolls and adjacent areas) - Single family: 26 short pay/NOD properties out of 115 houses, or approximately 23% of houses are distressed listings. Condos - About 14 short pay/NODs out of 42 listings, or 33% are distressed condos.

Zip code 90814 - (Bluff Heights, part of Belmont Heights, Carroll Park, Rose Park South) - Single family: About 7 out of 45 MLS listings are short pay/NOD listings, or 16%. Condos - 1 short pay/NOD listing out of 39, or less than 1.5% is a distressed property.

Long Beach - There are a total 1158 single family listings (including the above zip codes) for the entire city in the MLS, 291 are listed as short pays, or 25% are distressed listings.

Huntington Beach - For the entire city, 462 single family homes are listed, 67 are short pays, about 15% of the total market -- this is spread across 4 zip code areas, where some zips may have a higher percentage. Condos - 256 listings, 27 listed as short pays, about 11% of all condo listings.

Cerritos - 90703 zip code - Single family: 112 listings of which 25 are short pay, or 22% are distressed listings; 26 condo listings, 5 are short pays, about 19% are distressed listings.

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Long Beach/Los Angeles Metropolitan Area Homeowner Vacancy Rate

Some markets, such as Florida, have been hit harder than others in the current market. Each quarter the U.S. Census Bureau publishes renter and homeowner vacancy rates; the 2007 4th quarter rate for homeowner vacancy of 2.8% is the highest since it began collecting this information in the 1960's (see comment at end). But the 4th quarter is also typically the slowest time for the housing market in general--fewer home sales, fewer people moving due to the holidays, or taking a listed home off the market temporarily for the holiday period.

Not all markets are the same: the Long Beach-Los Angeles-Santa Ana corridor rate was 1.6%, much lower than Detroit, Cleveland, Atlanta, Orlando, or Indianapolis, for example, yet we rarely hear about those markets in the news media, but rather how difficult the California market is due to the number of foreclosures, which are not the only reason a home may be vacant. A home may also be vacant due being not yet sold and the owner has moved on, or a home being converted to a rental, or has second-home or seasonal use, which is a growing factor among the baby-boomer generation. The West as a region showed a higher number of seasonal vacancies in the 2007 4th quarter than in 2006, while the overall year-round vacancy rate in the West remained the same for both periods. See the Census Bureau chart. The WSJ Online comment that vacancy rates are "matching" the highest level since the Census Bureau started collecting this information is misleading--since the Census Bureau in its own comment says that areas are redefined every 10 years, and states which sets of years are not comparable to each other, i.e., 2005 and later data is not comparable to data prior to 1986 (see bottom of chart page).

Also from: The Wall Street Journal Online, March 21, 2008

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East Long Beach Still Sells

Zip code 90815 (excluding Park Estates and Bixby Hill areas) closed 37 transactions since January 1 to today's date in prices ranged from $355,000 to $715,000 for a single family home (data from the Southern California MLS)--one property reflected as a short sale (this data is only recently being reflected in the MLS). The same period last year closed 51 sales ranging from $476,000 to $930,000.


Currently, in these same 90815 areas of east Long Beach, Los Altos, Stratford Square, Lakewood Plaza, the Ranchos, La Marina, and Artcraft Manor, there are 83 active listings ranging in price from $380,000 to $1,095,000.


About 18 of these are impacted by short pay situations (meaning the seller is requesting the lender to accept a loan loss), however this area is far less impacted on the whole than other areas which may be as high as one-third of the active listings will require lender approval of the seller's short pay request.


It's opportunity time if you're ready to make a move! For a buyer- or seller-directed property search, please go to http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/, or go to http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ to search properties on the market by zip code, or price!



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Staging to Sell

If you're thinking about the things you need to do to prepare your home for sale, here is a video on the essentials. This video demonstrates how to create space through eliminating collectibles, or moving your furniture around.



http://www.expertrealestatetips.net/

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California FHA Loan Limits Now Up to $729,750!

A new and long-awaited temporary loan amount increase from $362,790 to the conventional loan maximum of $729,750 passed yesterday (until end of 2008)!

Per the Los Angeles Time: "The California counties at the new maximum level for FHA loans are Alameda, Contra Costa, Los Angeles, Marin, Monterey, Napa, Orange, San Benito, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Barbara, Santa Clara, Santa Cruz and Ventura. "

This could make FHA loans available to 30,000 additional Californians. FHA loans are characterized by low down payments of 3% and not as driven by FICO scores as conventional loans are.

Additional loan limits in Orange and Los Angeles Counties are:

1 unit 729,750
2 units 934,200
3 units 1,129,250
4 units 1,403,400

If you are considering purchasing a new house, condo or units for yourself, please contact me for a lender referral. Not all lenders specialize in FHA loans, so it's important to find someone who is experienced in these government loans. Call me at 562-896-2609, or you can go online in the meantime and search properties at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ or try a new type of property search at http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/ .

Tightening the Lending Standards--Is Your FICO Below 680?

Here's more on the trend that's been going on since late last summer: tightening lending standards, and Wells Fargo Bank is just one example as it tightens its lending standards in 200 markets across the country. If you want to buy, you must get your loan lined up before making an offer. This has always been considered the normal procedure for buyers. Now it's an absolutely essential must for any borrower. Conventional loan guidelines have changed drastically since 2007 to the point higher down payments may be required and stated income loans are now off-limits in some markets.

A Wells Fargo internal memo identified 30 markets in California alone as "at risk". Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (government-chartered mortgage financers) have surcharges for borrowers with credit scores below 680, a previously acceptable FICO score, and are requiring 5 percent down payment in markets identified as "declining". PMI (private mortgage insurance required on many loans less than 20% down) will be harder to obtain on loans with less than 3% down payment, and MGIC Investment Corp., a leading provider of private mortgage insurance, is discontinuing coverage of loans with down payments of less than 5% in 30 markets, which includes the entire state of California. So the message is: Don't count on that 100% financing or stated income loan in some instances, they're harder to find.

If finding a home is important, taking the time to invest in education about financing one is equally important.

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Mortgage Debt Relief Bill in California: Not Quite as Forgiving

Like the housing market, debt relief is a little more expensive in California.

On the state level, Senate Bill (SB) 1055, authored by Sen. Michael J. Machado, passed the Senate Revenue and Taxation Committee on an 8-0 vote. The measure would help California taxpayers whose lenders have forgiven a portion of their mortgage debt, by allowing them to exclude the forgiven debt from their incomes for state income tax purposes. Under existing state tax law, forgiven debt on mortgages is taxable to the borrower as ordinary income for the year in which the debt is forgiven. Per the Franchise Tax Board:

"If it passes, SB 1055 will conform to specified provisions of the federal Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act of 2007 – with a notable difference. For California taxpayers, the period of excludable discharges would be from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2008. The federal period of excludable discharges is from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009."

When Are Short Sales A Good Buy?

There are more listings these days taken under "short sale" conditions, and naturally, buyers are looking for a good buy. For the agent, the Southern California MLS now accommodates property searches based on this category as well as for bank-owned properties, but what will be involved for the buyer? For example, in Cerritos, there are about 27 short sale listings out of 80 4-bedroom houses on the market. In the Wrigley and general California Heights areas in Long Beach, out of a search of 34 houses under $500,000, about 12 are noted to be short sales. In Huntington Beach, 35 out of 115 houses listed under $750,000 are showing as short sales in the MLS.

First of all, initial disclosure of the short sale by the seller and listing agent is absolutely critical, and should be placed in the MLS listing. A "short sale" is where the owner owes more than the current market value of the property, and where the lender forgives a portion of the loan to match up with the market. The transaction and sale is legally between the buyer and seller, but the fact is the bank will have the ultimate voice in approving the amount of sale. If you're a buyer in a hurry, you may have to be very patient because it's not likely that even if the seller agrees upon a 30-day escrow period, that the bank will be getting around to it that fast. The closing period will likely be closer to 60 days. Much depends on the personnel in its loss mitigation department.

Contractually, make sure you as a California buyer of a 1-4 unit property have completed the Short Sale Addendum as part of your purchase contract and which discloses the contingency of the seller's receipt of a short sale approval by the lender(s) (remember, there may be a second loan by a separate lender which will also have to be negotiated). And, the lender reserves the right to accept other offers, so if the price is not right for them, your offer might sit on a desk while the lender waits for a better offer. Since you don't want to wait forever for lender approval, you will want to insert a realistic date into your contract for the lender's response which enables you to contractually cancel and move on. If the property is an exceptional price for the area, be aware that you may be competing with other offers, even though the market is otherwise slow.

On the postive side, banks are less interested in going through the more costly foreclosure process, and they really would rather approve a seller's short sale, and if the short sale package is presented (some listing agents are not presenting one until they get an offer from a buyer) and dealt with on a timely basis, then the buyer may have some luck. The key is to finding a house you really want, and having the ability and the time to wait out the process.

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Recent California Sales and Prices

The red bars in the chart at the right show the drop in California median sales price of single family houses since last summer. Is this all due to the foreclosures and delinquencies, as is heard so much of in the general media?

Since 1974, the average foreclosure rate per year is .81% (including the highest rates back in 1996 and 1997 of around 2%), and at the end of 2007 was 1.7%. The mortgage delinquency rate was at 4.4% at the end of 2007 (long term average is 3.9% and up as high as 6% in the mid-1980's). This means that out of all the loans made, 1-2% of those loans are having problems.

The loan resets many of this group are facing will continue for some time to come, and certain areas highly impacted by foreclosures will be more affected by lower prices. But in any market, there are always buyers and sellers, however currently, sales are below the 350,000-400,000 the expected "baseline" activity per the state's inventory of home and population demographics, and seems to coincide with the tightening in the credit industry since last summer, so that many people who could buy are delaying.


The statewide median price for detached housing dropped from the mid $580's in August to about $525,000 in October, to $475,460 at the end of December, 2007. However, the Los Angeles County median price for houses in December was $487,000.

Buyers and sellers will need to know their local area prices--sellers should be realistic about their asking price, and buyers should not be expecting cutthroat bargains just because sales are slower. In some areas, sellers are taking their homes off the market and leasing them if they feel they cannot get their price, and therefore there can actually be a shrinking inventory in some neighborhoods. One neighborhood I have been tracking in Costa Mesa (Orange County) featuring Greenbrook homes has actually shrunk from 10-12 houses listed on the market last Spring 2007, to now showing 3 listed as "active" and 1 that went into escrow on Feb. 12, as of Feb. 16, 2008.






Charts and price data per California Association of Realtors


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Why Buy a Home in Today's Market? It's Getting More Affordable

The $168 billion package signed off on by President Bush earlier this week increased the maximum conforming loan limit up to as much as $729,750, or 125% of the median price. Conforming loan limits are generally set on a statewide level (as opposed to FHA limits which are more local)--HUD has 30 days to determine those loan limits, but this morning the feedback is that for Los Angeles and Orange Counties, the maximum limit may be set! The information should be available by next week. (3/3/08 NOTE: limits may now be set on a county basis, and Los Angeles and Orange Counties may receive the highest loan limit.)

Buyers, it pays to pay attention right now and make plans for yourself. With new rates coming into effect in the very near future, you want to be prepared to take advantage of those lower, former "jumbo" rates which will reduce the monthly payment.

_________________________________________

So, with a little help from C.A.R., "Why Buy a Home in Today’s Market?"

1. Interest rates on long-term, fixed, and adjustable mortgages are at historically low levels. The rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is hovering just below 6 percent, while, by comparison, interest rates were hitting 8 percent and higher during the last market downturn in the late 1990s, and were between 10 and 12 percent at the height of the last housing boom in the 1980s. Lower interest rates make it easier to qualify for a loan, and your monthly payments are more affordable.

2. No one can put a price on the intrinsic value of homeownership. Home prices also reflect financial worth and, the good news is, across California the median sales price for a single-family home has been consistently rising for several decades. The projected median home price for a single-family home in California in 2008, for example, is $553,000. By comparison, the median price in 2000 was $241,350; $193,770 in 1990, and $99,550 in 1980. (source: C.A.R.) Also, "The percentage of households that could afford to buy an entry-level home in California stood at 33 percent in the fourth quarter of 2007, compared with 25 percent for the same period a year ago", according to a report released 2/19/2008 by C.A.R..

3. The length of time a home remains on the market before it is sold has increased from roughly two weeks in 2004 to between eight and nine weeks in 2007. With more homes on the market for longer periods of time, you have more choices when it comes to selecting a home today.

4. The multiple-offer frenzy that dominated the latest housing boom has subsided, and there is less pressure on today’s home buyers to outbid one another. REALTORS® in California reported that in 2007 only 28 percent of homes sold had multiple offers, compared with 57 percent in 2004. (source: C.A.R.)

5. The credit industry crisis that has made securing a home loan difficult for many has led to heightened scrutiny of mortgage lenders. As a result, state and federal agencies have created protections for home buyers that were not in place a year ago.

Buying a home in today’s market may be challenging, particularly for those with credit problems or little saved to put toward a down payment. But there are many factors impacting the current housing market that make buying a home today a viable option.

the above article courtesy of California Association of Realtors.

For a new site to set your own search, register at http://www.longbeachrealestate.listingbook.com/.

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Top 10 Ways Sellers Can Guarantee Their Home Won't Sell

Paul Pastore’s Top 10 Ways Sellers Can Guarantee Their Home Won’t Sell:

"1. Be casual, not serious, about selling. A sage once quipped, “Money is only important when you don’t want something enough.” Actions speak louder than words in this market. Discretionary sellers should wait for a less competitive environment.

"2. Price it wrong. A home properly priced is half sold. No amount of full-color ads, glossy fliers, multiple photos, virtual tours, agent luncheons, Goodyear blimps, pom-pom girls or Saint Joseph statues will compensate for a wrong, timid retail price.

"3. Ignore your agent. Attorneys believe if you represent yourself, you have a fool for a client. Doctors don’t self-diagnose. Professionals use professionals. Even though many people believe they’re experts on raising kids and real estate, full-time, career pros usually know what’s best. Listen to them very carefully.

"4. Micromanage the marketing. If you sold cookware in college, carts in California, or carpeting in Cranston, it does not qualify you to second-guess your agent. If you had a real estate license years ago, save your stories about the “good old days” for your children. You can share your concerns and timelines, but leave the details to the listing pro.

"5. Reject staging suggestions. Someday shag multi-colored, sculptured carpeting will come back. Whitewashed cabinets, Navajo white walls, linoleum flooring, southwest decor, lots of personal photos, and Elvis paintings on black velvet need to go. Now.

"6. Let Fido loose. I recently entered a house and had two frisky, friendly black Labs run up to sniff me. Unfortunately, I had light-gray dress slacks on that day. Both wet stains lasted for hours. Until that day I didn’t realize dogs enjoyed chewing the tassels on expensive loafers.

"7. Talk to the buyers. Life gets lonely at times. Why not ask the buyers where they grew up? Or how much they qualify for. Tell them about the vacant rental next door. Maybe they could baby-sit next weekend! Why not share war stories, horror movies or meatloaf recipes?

"8. Sell personal items. Wow, maybe the buyers want to buy the patio furniture, rotary lawnmower, or life-size statue of Saint Anthony. You have only four more boxes of Girl Scout cookies to sell. Why not ask for a donation for the March of Dimes, the Humane Society, the local PBS station? Remember the saying, “loose lips sink ships.”

"9. Discount that smell. My house doesn’t smell of pets, baby diapers, curry powder, garlic, fried fish, coconut incense, cigars, manure, mulch, dairy farms or low tide. The buyer must be confusing my castle with a tract home.

"10. Dismiss feedback. What do buyers know anyway? They can’t possibly mind my barbed wire fence, heavy-duty rebar, backyard bomb shelter, airport runway views, lights from the power plant, hum from the high-voltage lines, railroad tremors, scorpion skeletons, termite mud tubes and pet snakes. What are they thinking?"

Copyright © 2008 RE/MAX International Inc. 2/4/08
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Sales Trends and New Loan Limits in Southern California

The selling prices are on a downward slope, but so is the amount of inventory since last June. In the entire SoCalMLS area which now covers areas from Los Angeles down to San Diego (there is a push for a statewide MLS which may be happening by the end of this year), there were over 34,000 units for detached housing on the market in June, 2007, at an average list price of $815,272. The units on the market increased to over 38,000 in September and October, and by January had decreased to 32,217, and the average list price was $732,043.

The same trend shows for attached (condos, etc.) housing: Average list price of $494,000 last June decreased to $455,000 by January 3, 2008. with only about 275 additional attached units on the market compared to last June. Per California Association of Realtors, the median time on the MLS, meaning the days on market for a property before the seller received an accepted offer and went into escrow, was 8.6 weeks in 2007, compared to 1.6 weeks in 2004.

What sellers want to avoid now is "chasing the market down", today's low offer may look great in 90 days.

For buyers, the question remains, is our area market stabilizing beyond the usual seasonal dip in sales? Hopefully, that will be so, and with the Senate's approval of the economic stimulus plan yesterday, and an expected increase in conforming loan amount from $417,00 to over $700,000, some buyers who have been waiting for the right time to buy will now do so.

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Quilts of Valor, a Project for Veterans

Another Realtor in my office works diligently on Quilts of Valor, a nonprofit foundation of volunteers who make quilts to aid in the healing of our wounded vets upon their return from Iraq and Afghanistan. Due to some recent publicity (and more to come) her organization is starting to receive donations of fabric for constructing these quilts. She says, "I am asking you if you or someone you know might have a storage center, warehouse, or empty office that could be donated to us for storage and maybe even a workroom for volunteers to use to sew please contact me. Stay tuned for news about our Time Warner Cable video to be out soon as well as on CNN VOD and YouTube! This is such a needed and worthwhile cause, I hope you will also keep us in mind if your clients have cotton/flannel fabric, thread and sewing supplies or sewing machines to dispose of. We can always use more volunteers to help as well (no skills required). We also need money for postage to get the quilts delivered."

Weekly workshops are held Thursday afternoons at SewVac, 1762 Clark Ave., Long Beach, from 1-5 pm. This group has done two Make a Difference Days on Saturdays. Starting in March, there will be evening sessions in Cerritos. High school students can earn their community service hours by volunteering. They are an authorized agency for the Long Beach Unified School District to help them earn their 40 hours required for graduation, so they learn a skill and learn to give back to the community!

If any of you have work space we could consider, or materials, or an interest in this, please contact me!

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Downtown "Fun Bus" to Broadway and 4th St. Businesses

The Big Red “Fun Bus” is a free ride on Thursdays from 6 pm to Midnight and Saturdays from 1 pm to 6 pm – as a way of connecting all the cool shops and dining establishments along Broadway and 4th Street between Pine and Redondo while passengers listen to live music and enjoy special promotions offered through their website. It’s being funded by business owners on Pine through Downtown Long Beach Associates as a way of connecting their businesses in a fun way from downtown and the East Village to the neighborhoods of Belmont Heights (historic district), Bluff Park (historic district), Bluff Heights and Alamitos Beach along the Broadway and 4th St., which adjoins Rose Park South (historic district).

It's a great opportunity to visit stores and shops such as KiKi Originals, an alternative to the warehouse style bridal stores "where you feel like a number instead of a bride." Shop owner, Kim Kessler, a resident of Long Beach for over ten years, has made dreams come true for her brides. KiKi Originals can design anything you can dream of for your wedding party including bridal gowns, bridesmaids, flower girls, and mothers. Sasha's Living With Style just recently expanded into a period Craftsman-style house on Broadway (see first photo above) which had been a rental for many years. The house is typical of many houses originally built in the area, and a great setting for her home design store.

Mark Sutherland of Bungalow Marcasso at 2720 E. Broadway specializes in home and garden accessories, arts, and gifts--"Voted Best Gift Store for 2007 by Beachcomber Newspaper readers!"

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How Today's Rate Cut Affects You

Quote of the day:

"Long-term rates, such as those for mortgages, don't respond directly to the Fed's short-term rate moves. Sometimes, mortgage rates move in the opposite direction when the Fed reduces the federal funds rate. But more often than not, mortgage rates eventually follow the Fed's lead. That might be one of the motivations of the central bank, (Richard DeKaser, chief economist for National City Corp) says -- "to help the housing market by lowering the refinance rate on many resetting mortgages. That makes it easier for people confronting resets, which we know are rampant right now, to achieve more affordable rates."

If you have a Home Equity Line of Credit, that will be favorably affected. But keep on eye on mortgage rates, because taking a cue from last week's volatility where there was an almost-unheard-of-three-quarters-of-a-percent movement in one day, you could definitely save money.

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What Does the Rate Cut Do For You?

Whenever the Federal Reserve increases or decreases rates as it did today, it means different things for different people. The winners will be people with good credit scores because the better your score, the better interest rate you receive. This means that if you have an adjustable rate mortgage, it's a really good time to refinance into a fixed interest rate mortgage. It's also a really good time to look for a new home--your payment will be lower with lower interest rates.

The other reason your credit score is so important is not just the rate you'll qualify for, it's the type of loan available to you. I'm including this somewhat pessimistic article (to appeal to the conservative among you) on today's rate cut, how it affects mortgage rates, and tighter lending standards compared to those of 2-3 years ago which have made certain loans out-of-reach that were once available for borrowers with lower FICO scores. At the same time, FHA loans (usually made with a very low down payment) are on the table with the Senate-passed FHA Modernization Act for an increase in loan amount to assist first-time buyers. There are in fact numerous first-time buyer programs available. In fact, the Los Angeles Times and the California Association of Realtors are hosting a free first time homebuyer fair at the Los Angeles Convention Center in April, 2008.

So if you're looking to refinance or purchase for the long term, you may have a great opportunity at this time.

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California Median Prices are Down and Up

The most recent California median prices, as reported by Dataquick for November, 2007, vary by area (figures reflect houses and condos together):
In Long Beach, zip code 90803 which is Bluff Park, part of Belmont Heights, Naples, Belmont Shore area, there were only 7 sales reported, but the median price for a single family home increased by about 9% over November 2006 sales. The condo sale median price decreased in 90803 by about 14% (based on 3 sales), and decreased in 90802 (based on 21 sales) by about 6% compared to 2006. But, overall, Long Beach only declined .98% from November 2006.

Cerritos house prices declined about 15% from Nov. 2006; Lakewood and Downey declined 11% and 12%; San Pedro, with ocean views from elevated areas, appreciated over 4%.

Some areas, such as Lancaster and Tujunga, with more foreclosure and short pay incidents are suffering hits to their prices.

Los Angeles County's November 2007 median price overall declined 4.79% over November 2006.

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"Let's Get a Little Perspective" - 2007 Was NOT a Bad Year

On Thursday mornings I usually attend a broker preview meeting for local agents--it's information sharing about listings, buyer needs, and an opportunity to network. Here's information sharing that came out of last week's meeting:

2007 is tracking to be the 4th BEST year in history since statistics began in 1952.

1988 -- 3.5 million units sold
1991 -- 3.1 million units sold
1998 -- 4.2 million units sold
2000 -- 4.6 million units sold
2004 -- 5.7 million units sold
2005 -- 7.1 million units sold
2006 -- 6.4 million units sold
2007 -- 5.5 million units sold

30% of U.S. homes are owned free and clear -- these are not affected by subprime loan conditions.

Total Mortgage Debt = $9.9 TRILLION

Subprime Mess = $75 Billion (equates to .0075% or 3/4 of a 100th of a percent)

Banks do NOT experience 100% loss in foreclosure -- potentially $25 billion (loss), or 1/3 of one 100% of a percent.


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Selling Price is Not the Whole Story

With this week's low interest rates, the opportunity to buy is better than ever. Did you know a half-point drop in your interest rate makes a huge difference on your monthly payment? Let's say you are taking out a $300,000 mortgage, and you have been expecting to pay 6%. What if the loan market changed, and/or you decided to pay an additional 0.5% to 1% towards buying down the rate (or you negotiated with the seller to do that for you!), and now you're able to get that same loan at 5.5% (an historically low rate). Your monthly principal and interest just lowered from $1798.65 to $1703.37.
What if you had that same $300,000 mortgage with a 6% interest rate and suddenly other economic factors in the market caused a jump up in rates, and in order to close on time, you're now going to pay 6.25%--you're payment is now $1847.15.
It really pays to not wait, whether it's making an offer, finding the right loan, getting that loan locked at the right time.
If you're thinking about waiting 6 months because you think home prices will be coming down further, just remember that even if that's true to a certain degree, the selling price of the home isn't the only thing that will impact your monthly payment.

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Long Beach Neighborhood, Lakewood and Cerritos Price Roundup for End of 2007

Happy New Year to All--

here is my first post for 2008, a round up of some local prices for houses and condos in several Long Beach neighborhoods in the last quarter of 2007, for which I shamelessly ask for a sign-in.

Unlike the recession of the mid-1990's, selling time is much longer (all over the country, too) but prices may not be falling through the floor, and there may be even a tightening of inventory in such areas as Belmont Heights--I'll be adding more areas to this list in the next few days, so please check back.
Sales are typically lower in the 4th quarter of any year, as also reflected here.
Click on the links for actual lists of houses sold.

Belmont Shore and Naples (90803) - 43 houses sold in the 3rd quarter; 24 houses sold in the 4th quarter.
Bixby Knolls, California Heights, Virginia Country Club areas - 53 houses sold in 3rd quarter; 48 single family homes sold in 4th quarter.
Los Altos area homes (90815) - 19 single family homes sold in the 4th quarter; 42 sold in 3rd quarter.
Park Estates area homes (90815) - 6 sold in 3rd quarter; 1 sold in 4th quarter.
Cerritos (all) - 66 houses sold in 3rd quarter; 29 houses sold in 4th quarter.
Lakewood (all) - 130 houses sold in the 3rd quarter; 93 houses sold 4th quarter.

Long Beach long beach real estate 'Voice this!