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12/31/2010
Monthly 1-Minute Newsletter
See my monthly newsletter below for December, 2010. Just click on the logo below for the best summary around of local and regional market info! Have a very Happy New Year in 2011!

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12/21/2010
Are You Having Trouble With a Loan Modification?
It's probably no surprise to many mortgage borrowers by now in this Christmas season to realize that they've had a tough time getting their loan modified this year. If they do not qualify for the Home Affordable Loan Program (HAMP), they try their bank's program. Often this application process goes on for months, while the homeowner may grow short on funds and cannot continue the monthly payment, and then they begin the process for a short sale, or worse, foreclosure. This story has been repeated over and over by many borrowers. If a loan modificaton is approved by the lender, often times the delinquent payments and refinance fees are added to the principal, making the new higher payment very unattractive, so the borrower rejects it.
One issue is that lenders have very little incentive to modify loans, as the cost of doing so cannot be billed back to the investor, and the work involved is very labor intensive and is not easily automated. Many banks have not invested in qualified staffing to take care of the high volume of distressed owners. And their agreements with investors on securitized mortgages may not actually cover the details of completing loan modifications, but do address foreclosure, so they believe they are in a risky situation with fulfillment of their contract terms.
In a 31-page study by the Federal Reserve, based on data from over 105,000 loans from 94 loans servicers dating from 2005 from California, Oregon and Washington, to determine who receives a loan modification (no discernible differences according to race and income differentials were found, "In fact, we find that Blacks/African Americans, Hispanics/Latinos and Asians are slightly more likely to receive a loan modification, and that these loan modifications have slightly larger reductions in their interest rate than those of similarly situated white borrowers"), it was still unclear after its research into the behavior of various financial institutions as to why the number of loan modifications was still falling well short of the number of foreclosures, even though the HAMP program has been declared effective with borrowers who received one, a group with a low re-default rate, despite literature published to the contrary. Here is the complete Federal Reserve study.
Another very clear problem is that some banks do reach out to their customers, but many borrowers fail to make contact with their banks, even after being contacted by them. And the longer a delinquent borrower spends in delinquency without contacting their bank, the more likely the home will be lost to foreclosure.
If you are interested in a loan modification, you might be successful, and you should contact your loan servicer. But it's important to understand that possibly no matter how much information you submit to your bank, for a variety of reasons you may not get one, or you may have to struggle for up to a year or more with them. Banks are not equal in this situation--one of the factors may be if your loan is a portfolio loan or one securitized with investors. The study mentions the "lack of transparency" because data is issued in the aggregate, and information directly linked to borrowers is still difficult to track. Also, according to this study, 52% of foreclosure sales lack "reciprocal servicer contact" (does that mean the bank didn't return the borrower's initial contact)?
Overall, banks recoup a little more money if a property is sold in a short sale, rather than going into foreclosure and coming back on the market as an REO. This usually costs banks more money, and their "loss severity" rates are looked at closely when making their decisions.
The bottom line is: If you are having trouble making payments, contact your bank now. If you have to keep submitting your information over and over again for periods of 30-60-90 days, then you should obtain assistance through a Realtor who is familiar with short sales, or an attorney who specializes in loan modifications, not just any attorney, for further help. Don't wait too long.
One issue is that lenders have very little incentive to modify loans, as the cost of doing so cannot be billed back to the investor, and the work involved is very labor intensive and is not easily automated. Many banks have not invested in qualified staffing to take care of the high volume of distressed owners. And their agreements with investors on securitized mortgages may not actually cover the details of completing loan modifications, but do address foreclosure, so they believe they are in a risky situation with fulfillment of their contract terms.
In a 31-page study by the Federal Reserve, based on data from over 105,000 loans from 94 loans servicers dating from 2005 from California, Oregon and Washington, to determine who receives a loan modification (no discernible differences according to race and income differentials were found, "In fact, we find that Blacks/African Americans, Hispanics/Latinos and Asians are slightly more likely to receive a loan modification, and that these loan modifications have slightly larger reductions in their interest rate than those of similarly situated white borrowers"), it was still unclear after its research into the behavior of various financial institutions as to why the number of loan modifications was still falling well short of the number of foreclosures, even though the HAMP program has been declared effective with borrowers who received one, a group with a low re-default rate, despite literature published to the contrary. Here is the complete Federal Reserve study.
Another very clear problem is that some banks do reach out to their customers, but many borrowers fail to make contact with their banks, even after being contacted by them. And the longer a delinquent borrower spends in delinquency without contacting their bank, the more likely the home will be lost to foreclosure.
If you are interested in a loan modification, you might be successful, and you should contact your loan servicer. But it's important to understand that possibly no matter how much information you submit to your bank, for a variety of reasons you may not get one, or you may have to struggle for up to a year or more with them. Banks are not equal in this situation--one of the factors may be if your loan is a portfolio loan or one securitized with investors. The study mentions the "lack of transparency" because data is issued in the aggregate, and information directly linked to borrowers is still difficult to track. Also, according to this study, 52% of foreclosure sales lack "reciprocal servicer contact" (does that mean the bank didn't return the borrower's initial contact)?
Overall, banks recoup a little more money if a property is sold in a short sale, rather than going into foreclosure and coming back on the market as an REO. This usually costs banks more money, and their "loss severity" rates are looked at closely when making their decisions.
The bottom line is: If you are having trouble making payments, contact your bank now. If you have to keep submitting your information over and over again for periods of 30-60-90 days, then you should obtain assistance through a Realtor who is familiar with short sales, or an attorney who specializes in loan modifications, not just any attorney, for further help. Don't wait too long.
12/15/2010
Is the Southern California Market Stabilizing?
With so many analyses and predictions going on about the direction of the real estate market, the average person is often uncertain about the real truth. Recently, I've heard a few prospective buyers that I've been talking with express the belief that the market is going to drop even more by a certain percent, or just drop in general, all depending on what they've most recently read. But there's one truth that most real estate experts and practitioners agree on, all across the country: All real estate is local. So whether or not a large bank stops foreclosures for a while, or some other wave hits on the financial scene, it may or may not affect your immediate market in your part of the state, county or city, or even your neighborhood, depending on the many economic characteristics and forces that make up your area.
So, having said all real estate is local, in general, the number of Southern California residential sales for November fell, but overall, prices stayed stable. Southern California means the six counties of Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, San Bernardino, San Diego and Riverside.
For Los Angeles County, the sales volume dipped by 11.5% compared to the prior year, but the median price (lumping new and resale houses and condos all together) for LA County decreased by only 1.2%; Orange County's median increased by .6%; San Diego and Ventura Counties increased price by over 3% and 2%, respectively; San Bernardino, hard hit by foreclosures, decreased another 5% in median price over last year. Per Dataquick, the overall median price for all six counties increased by .7% even though the sales volume decreased by 15%.
Local cities, per the most recent information for new and existing houses and condos published through October 2010 by California Association of Realtors, show:
And, to top it off buyers, the past two weeks or so saw the biggest jump in interest rates in the past several months. Many mortgage professionals believe the floor of close to 4% may be permanently gone, and as of today, FHA quotes were at 4.75%, while a 5% down conventional loan for a condo was quoted at 5%. It's easy to take a calculator to check out this would affect your monthly payment. A free calculator download is at Real Data.
Buyers should start making hay while the sun is shining!
Have a wonderful Merry Christmas, Happy New Years, and Happy Holidays.
So, having said all real estate is local, in general, the number of Southern California residential sales for November fell, but overall, prices stayed stable. Southern California means the six counties of Los Angeles, Ventura, Orange, San Bernardino, San Diego and Riverside.
For Los Angeles County, the sales volume dipped by 11.5% compared to the prior year, but the median price (lumping new and resale houses and condos all together) for LA County decreased by only 1.2%; Orange County's median increased by .6%; San Diego and Ventura Counties increased price by over 3% and 2%, respectively; San Bernardino, hard hit by foreclosures, decreased another 5% in median price over last year. Per Dataquick, the overall median price for all six counties increased by .7% even though the sales volume decreased by 15%.
Local cities, per the most recent information for new and existing houses and condos published through October 2010 by California Association of Realtors, show:
- Long Beach decreased its median price by 4.7% from prior October.
- Cerritos increased its median price by 5%.
- Lakewood stayed the same.
- San Pedro decreased by .1%.
- Bellflower decreased by 1.7%
- Gardena increased by 9%
- Buena Park increased by 3%
- Huntington Beach stayed the same
- Westminster increased by 1.1%
- Newport Beach increased by 17%
- Downey decreased by .4%.
And, to top it off buyers, the past two weeks or so saw the biggest jump in interest rates in the past several months. Many mortgage professionals believe the floor of close to 4% may be permanently gone, and as of today, FHA quotes were at 4.75%, while a 5% down conventional loan for a condo was quoted at 5%. It's easy to take a calculator to check out this would affect your monthly payment. A free calculator download is at Real Data.
Buyers should start making hay while the sun is shining!
Have a wonderful Merry Christmas, Happy New Years, and Happy Holidays.
12/10/2010
12/07/2010
How Many Properties Under $300,000 in Signal Hill?
This is a good price point to consider because it works for second home buyers, 1st time buyers, and people looking for a good investment in a desirable location. The property in this price range will most likely be a condo but if a buyer is willing to consider North Long Beach or West Long Beach, it could be a single family home. For a two-income couple, the total monthly payment (principal, interest, taxes, HOA dues and insurance) may be $2000 or less at current interest rates. It's actually a very competitive price range because of the number of investors able to invest cash or a very large down payment, and it's an affordable price range for many buyers. Some areas of Signal Hill have great views towards the mountains and toward the ocean, and in fact, the City has taken a stance to protect those views. It has gone through much development in the last 20 years to shed its oil derrick image, and most recently a new grocer's has opened up across from Home Depot on Cherry Ave.
Right now in Signal Hill, 29 properties are listed at $300,000 or less (out of a total of 66 active listings in showing in the MLS as of today). This is almost 50% of the inventory, where the average of all list prices is over $400,000. All of these properties are condos, except for two single family homes, and almost half are standard sales. With interest rates still under 4.75% (but see this article from Zillow about the biggest change in 5 months) a buyer could possibly meet the goal of keeping the total payment under $2000.
To see Signal Hill properties now, click here.
Right now in Signal Hill, 29 properties are listed at $300,000 or less (out of a total of 66 active listings in showing in the MLS as of today). This is almost 50% of the inventory, where the average of all list prices is over $400,000. All of these properties are condos, except for two single family homes, and almost half are standard sales. With interest rates still under 4.75% (but see this article from Zillow about the biggest change in 5 months) a buyer could possibly meet the goal of keeping the total payment under $2000.
To see Signal Hill properties now, click here.
11/30/2010
Opportune Time for Buyers.
National Association of Home Builders comments on the current market, both for new housing and existing homes. Prices nationally --and locally -- have returned to the 2003 levels. NAHB believes there is price stabilization in many areas of the country. Future household formation--which has slowed in the current economy--will eventually demand more housing. This is the "opportune time for buyers" because buyers who are motivated to buy and are qualified at this time should take advantage. Los Angeles County, though experiencing fewer sales than one year ago, has not lost in the median price point of a single family homes since one year ago: Year-to-date in LA County the median price of a single family home is $340,000, Click on the video for more on housing market conditions currently.
11/23/2010
When Is "Diving" into Lease Option a Good Idea in Southern California?
Sometimes I'm asked about the possibility of a lease-option as a way to buy a single family home.
Lease-options were used extensively with commercial properties in the past and have also become a method for purchasing a single family home in the residential market.
They work best when: 1) the owner wants to sell but does not have to transfer title right away; 2) or the seller may need continuing cash to pay fthe mortgage, 3) the house may be vacant or will soon be because the seller has already moved on, 4) the money from the sale is not needed immediately by the seller, 5) and, very important, the seller has equity in the property or has other income. When a seller's market is slow and a house with equity in it is not selling, a seller might consider this scenario from a renter/buyer.
The buyer must first find out what the seller's circumstances are, which a Realtor can definitely help out with, before spending time on making lease-option offers. In many neighborhoods, short sales are about 50% or more of the local market and many if not most of those properties will not have a seller who will be able to rent out the house at local market rent because their mortgage payment may be much much higher, and they do not have either the desire or the ability to carry a negative cash flow.
However, if an equity seller can wait 6 months or even a year for the buyer, it might be worth the wait.
For some additional explanation, see this general article about lease-options.
Lease-options were used extensively with commercial properties in the past and have also become a method for purchasing a single family home in the residential market.They work best when: 1) the owner wants to sell but does not have to transfer title right away; 2) or the seller may need continuing cash to pay fthe mortgage, 3) the house may be vacant or will soon be because the seller has already moved on, 4) the money from the sale is not needed immediately by the seller, 5) and, very important, the seller has equity in the property or has other income. When a seller's market is slow and a house with equity in it is not selling, a seller might consider this scenario from a renter/buyer.
There are advantages for both the buyer and the seller in this arrangement. It's also important to use a good lease-option agreement which covers, among other things, the percentage of rent credit towards the down payment, the date by which the sale will close, and other clarifications concerning who is paying the taxes, who is maintaining the property (usually the seller), agreement on the final sales price. Tenants in this situation are more likely to treat the property very well since they see themselves as the future owners.
An advantage for the seller includes retaining the income tax deductions and having good tenants. The advantages for the buyer are getting into a house for little money up front (the amount is negotiable of course), building up a rent credit towards a down payment, trying out the neighborhood, still having time to shop for the best mortgage or interest rate, and the possible benefit of the price being locked in if the value goes up.
However, if an equity seller can wait 6 months or even a year for the buyer, it might be worth the wait.
For some additional explanation, see this general article about lease-options.
11/15/2010
If You Got a Home Loan From the Bank, Are You Its Client?
No. You're the borrower. And as the borrower, you voluntarily took the loan from the bank, and according to the usual circumstances of an arms-length loan transaction, there is no fiduciary relationship.
The banks/servicers frequently require the use of their bank addendums to be added to Realtor contracts--adding another layer to interpret in the transaction. Here is another use of the term "fiduciary"--On a recently published Purchase Contract Addendum by Wells Fargo in July/August of this year, the following language definitely confuses the issue: "It is the Brokers’ fiduciary responsibility to present the highest and best offer to the servicer." To be very clear, 1) the seller's broker has a fiduciary duty to the seller, not to the seller's bank, and 2) offers are presented to the seller, not to the bank. The "highest and best offer" (and the best offer may not necessarily be the highest price) is presented to the seller, who ideally accepts an offer when it then becomes a contract, which is than submitted to the bank for its approval to accept less than the outstanding loan amount. Naturally, the bank is interested in recouping as much money as possible, but the issue of fiduciary relationship--the person to whom you owe the greatest care--is clearly laid out for brokers in agency law, and that person is your seller if you are the listing broker, not the bank. The broker cannot be the servant of both because the broker already has a contract (the listing agreement) with the seller who owns the property, not with the bank--or investor--which owns the note.
Sellers would like a clear, black-and-white outlook for their property, and it's rarely easy, and full of complications. It's very important for the seller to read the letter issued by the bank when a short sale has been approved--the seller should not assume the bank is issuing language that is completely in the seller's interest without taking the time to examine it, or have it looked at by a tax or legal advisor!
However, Bank of America's investors, for example, include Pimco of Newport Beach, TCW Corp. of Los Angeles, BlackRock, Inc. of New York, and Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Bank of America has about 500 investors, all of whom it may owe a fiduciary obligation because of their investment/purchase of funds. Banks in these cases are the servicers for these investors, with whom they have agreements or contracts. Those contracts are known as PSA's, Pooling and Servicing Agreements, which guide the specific demands made on loan modifications or short sales requested by the borrower. It may not be easy to find out the exact terms in those agreements, and in fact, it's often difficult to find out what investor holds the note due to the use of MERS in the last few years. But those servicing agreements spell out the relationship of the Bank to the investor, and ultimately, the course of your short sale or loan modification request. The servicer may actually have leeway in negotiating for the investor, but if the investor is able to accuse the servicer it did not act in the investor's best interest, the servicing bank could have a lawsuit on its hands. So you might be told the "investor" is making demands, but is that really the full story?
Sellers would like a clear, black-and-white outlook for their property, and it's rarely easy, and full of complications. It's very important for the seller to read the letter issued by the bank when a short sale has been approved--the seller should not assume the bank is issuing language that is completely in the seller's interest without taking the time to examine it, or have it looked at by a tax or legal advisor!
11/10/2010
FICO Scores May Mean Savings on Monthly Payment of $200
Many buyers, and property owners who want to refinance now, realize that FICO scores are important when it comes to getting a loan. But what exactly is the picture on the benefits to a higher score, and what kind of a difference will it make? Below is a general chart for score categories and interest rates.
The sample breakdown below may not be exactly like this because a borrower's other circumstances with a particular lender or a particular program could vary, so it's important to keep that in mind. But oftentimes prospective borrowers are not aware of how their decision to buy one more piece of furniture, or buying that new car, BEFORE closing escrow, may strongly impact their new monthly payment because they have added more debt.
30 year Fixed Rate Mortgage - $200,000 Loan Amount
FICO Score APR Monthly Payment
760-850 4.466% $1,009
700-759 4.688% $1,036
680-699 4.865% $1,057
660-679 5.079% $1,083
640-659 5.509% $1,137
620-639 6.055% $1,206
Chart courtesy of Pat Zaby
For more information on how debt and other credit issues can impact your credit score, I can forward you my Powerpoint presentation. Also, go to http://www.myfico.com/ for objective information about credit scoring and obtaining a free credit report.
The sample breakdown below may not be exactly like this because a borrower's other circumstances with a particular lender or a particular program could vary, so it's important to keep that in mind. But oftentimes prospective borrowers are not aware of how their decision to buy one more piece of furniture, or buying that new car, BEFORE closing escrow, may strongly impact their new monthly payment because they have added more debt.
30 year Fixed Rate Mortgage - $200,000 Loan Amount
FICO Score APR Monthly Payment
760-850 4.466% $1,009
700-759 4.688% $1,036
680-699 4.865% $1,057
660-679 5.079% $1,083
640-659 5.509% $1,137
620-639 6.055% $1,206
Chart courtesy of Pat Zaby
For more information on how debt and other credit issues can impact your credit score, I can forward you my Powerpoint presentation. Also, go to http://www.myfico.com/ for objective information about credit scoring and obtaining a free credit report.
10/29/2010
What is the Trend in Long Beach House and Condo Prices Since Sept. 2008
The two-year picture for median selling price of single family homes in Long Beach is a pretty diverse picture, just like the city itself. From September 2008 to September 2010:
Interestingly, the overall drop for the SFR from 2 years ago is only 3% from $390,000 to $379000 (per CARETS data). This is in contrast to the median price for Los Angeles County which has increased from $339,500 (Sept. 2009) to $350,000 (per CoreLogic data). There is a 30% decrease in expired house listings, and the number of sold properties is up 15% over two years ago, while the months supply of inventory is down 33%.
Condos in Long Beach have taken a bigger hit--the median sold price has dropped 22% in two years from $263,000 to $205,000 from 2008-2010, and for Los Angeles County the median price has dropped from $337,000 to $320,000 from 2009-2010. The overall median for sale condo price in Long Beach has dropped 22% in the last 2 years, but there are fewer expired properties (down 37%), and an increase in the number of sold condos in the last 2 years, by 5%. The months supply of inventory is down 32% from two years ago.
For both houses and condos, the number of properties for sale is down by 26% and 22%, a condition that eventually may contribute to more listings on the market to meet demand, driving sales volume higher and in some cases sales prices higher as inventory decreases in certain areas.
Interestingly, the overall drop for the SFR from 2 years ago is only 3% from $390,000 to $379000 (per CARETS data). This is in contrast to the median price for Los Angeles County which has increased from $339,500 (Sept. 2009) to $350,000 (per CoreLogic data). There is a 30% decrease in expired house listings, and the number of sold properties is up 15% over two years ago, while the months supply of inventory is down 33%.
Condos in Long Beach have taken a bigger hit--the median sold price has dropped 22% in two years from $263,000 to $205,000 from 2008-2010, and for Los Angeles County the median price has dropped from $337,000 to $320,000 from 2009-2010. The overall median for sale condo price in Long Beach has dropped 22% in the last 2 years, but there are fewer expired properties (down 37%), and an increase in the number of sold condos in the last 2 years, by 5%. The months supply of inventory is down 32% from two years ago.
For both houses and condos, the number of properties for sale is down by 26% and 22%, a condition that eventually may contribute to more listings on the market to meet demand, driving sales volume higher and in some cases sales prices higher as inventory decreases in certain areas.
10/26/2010
Should You Pay All Cash or Should You Carry a Mortgage?
Should you be in a hurry to pay off a mortgage? Or should you never pay it off? What reasons would you have for carrying a mortgage instead of having total equity in your property? Why do we want to make a bigger down payment, get 15-year loans, pay more money every month? If you are trying to decide what to do, save a bigger down payment or pay all cash, or make a lesser down payment, take a look at this.
When the stock market crashed in 1929, the banks called (demanded immediate payment on ) home loans in the 1920's due to the run on banks, which led to homeowners losing their homes. This is when people starting believing it was bad to have a mortgage and that it was bad to be in debt. Then, mortgage loans could be called on a moment's notice, but today, due to a change in the rule, the bank is prohibited from paying in full without prior notice, and can only demand this month's payment. People have been trained to think of debt elimination and being debt-free due to this history.
When the stock market crashed in 1929, the banks called (demanded immediate payment on ) home loans in the 1920's due to the run on banks, which led to homeowners losing their homes. This is when people starting believing it was bad to have a mortgage and that it was bad to be in debt. Then, mortgage loans could be called on a moment's notice, but today, due to a change in the rule, the bank is prohibited from paying in full without prior notice, and can only demand this month's payment. People have been trained to think of debt elimination and being debt-free due to this history.
- Mortgages don't affect home values--mortgage is not a debt, it is an asset class.
- Equity is built whether or not there is a mortgage, it is built due to market growth in value.
- A mortgage is the cheapest money you can borrow because it is secured by the property (unlike most debt which is unsecured and is given at much higher interest).
- Mortgage interest is tax-deductible.
- Mortgage interest is tax-favorable.
- Mortgage payments get easier over time, the payment never grows, but your income does.
- Mortgages allow you to sell without selling; owners have the opportunity to use the equity.
- Mortgages enable you to create more wealth than you otherwise would.
- Mortgages allow you to invest more money more quickly.
- Mortgages give you greater liquidity and greater flexibility. The 30-year loan may actually give a better return than a 15-year loan--if you save and invest the difference.
10/21/2010
Buying a Home is An Opportunity to Leverage
Often when prospective buyer(s) think about making the change from being a renter to a homeowner, they add up all their monthly costs as a renter and then compare it to their monthly costs as a homeowner. If the amount as a homeowner is more, then they get discouraged and assume that buying is not a good deal for them. But instead of focusing on only their current role as a renter, they should go further and realize their role, and their opportunity, as an homebuyer/investor for their future:
Some people define leverage as using other people's money but another way to describe it is when a small down payment controls a large asset by placing a high loan-to-value mortgage on it. There are not many investments that allow leverage but homes certainly do and especially with FHA or VA loans.
Let's assume a couple or single buyer has the down payment and good credit that would allow them to buy a home. We'll compare some alternatives to see where their best outcome may be.
If a person put $6125 in a certificate of deposit (CD) that earned 2% annually, it would be worth $6,762 in five years and the profit would be taxed as ordinary income. If a person could take a little more risk and pick the right stock, the $6,125 might grow to $7,817 and the profit would be taxed at the more favorable long-term capital gains rates if they held the stock for more than one year.
On the other hand, if the $6,125 were used as a down payment for a $175,000 home (possible with an FHA purchase) that went up in value only 1% per year, the equity would grow to $30,575 in the same five year period of time based on appreciation and amortization. In most cases, the gains on principal residences are excluded from income tax subject to limits. (Single person usually has an IRS $250,000 capital gains exemption and married couple usually has an IRS $500,000 capital gains exemption.)
The difference is dramatic and is one more reason that buyers should be taking advantage of the great selection of homes, the lower prices and incredibly low interest rates to fix their cost of housing for years to come. There may never be a better time to buy a home than now.
For more information on this, a rent vs. buy analysis may be obtained. Or please contact me through http://www.juliahuntsman.com/
Inspired by Pat Zaby
Some people define leverage as using other people's money but another way to describe it is when a small down payment controls a large asset by placing a high loan-to-value mortgage on it. There are not many investments that allow leverage but homes certainly do and especially with FHA or VA loans.
Let's assume a couple or single buyer has the down payment and good credit that would allow them to buy a home. We'll compare some alternatives to see where their best outcome may be.
If a person put $6125 in a certificate of deposit (CD) that earned 2% annually, it would be worth $6,762 in five years and the profit would be taxed as ordinary income. If a person could take a little more risk and pick the right stock, the $6,125 might grow to $7,817 and the profit would be taxed at the more favorable long-term capital gains rates if they held the stock for more than one year.
On the other hand, if the $6,125 were used as a down payment for a $175,000 home (possible with an FHA purchase) that went up in value only 1% per year, the equity would grow to $30,575 in the same five year period of time based on appreciation and amortization. In most cases, the gains on principal residences are excluded from income tax subject to limits. (Single person usually has an IRS $250,000 capital gains exemption and married couple usually has an IRS $500,000 capital gains exemption.)
The difference is dramatic and is one more reason that buyers should be taking advantage of the great selection of homes, the lower prices and incredibly low interest rates to fix their cost of housing for years to come. There may never be a better time to buy a home than now.
For more information on this, a rent vs. buy analysis may be obtained. Or please contact me through http://www.juliahuntsman.com/
Inspired by Pat Zaby
10/18/2010
Has Your Home Loan Been Sold?
What if your home loan has been sold? This video interviewing Paul Leonard of the Housing Policy Council explains why mortgages may be sold, what is securitization and its function in the market, and the new banking changes which will require anyone who touches a mortgage in the future to have some responsibility for it: the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (summary is 16 pages).
10/13/2010
Was 2009 the Low Point of the Market?
Almost two years ago, in December of 2008, I did a post called The Cost of Waiting to Buy. Blogger has a new stats tool for keeping track of your hits (since its inception June 1, 2010) and that particular post is the all time winner, which is interesting because it tells me there's lots of people who are at least thinking of buying, or would like to buy, or are looking for good reasons to not buy and they're having arguments with themselves or others, which means they're thinking about buying. And then someone left a comment saying they didn't think the bottom of the market had come yet, and that commentor may have been correct. Well, some people are now beginning to think that it has, and that the bottom of the market in California may have been last year, 2009.
For buyers, the price of a home and the availability and costs of a mortgage are two significant benchmarks. Is this your time? With prices still lower and, in spite of stringent underwriting by lenders, there are loans with low interest rates available. It could be your time.
After two consecutive years of record-setting price declines, the median home price in California will climb 11.5 percent in 2010 to $306,500 and increase another 2 percent in 2011 to $312,500, according to the forecast. CAR Housing Market 2011 Forecast.
The bottom is behind us. John Karevoll, Dataquick at CAR 2010 Expo at Anaheim.
Foreclosure activity remains high by historical standards but is lower than peak levels reached over the last two years, and jumbo loans above $417,000 increased 15.7% from August 2009. DQ News.Com 9/2010.The steady 9-month increase in median price for Los Angeles County could be another indicator.
For buyers, the price of a home and the availability and costs of a mortgage are two significant benchmarks. Is this your time? With prices still lower and, in spite of stringent underwriting by lenders, there are loans with low interest rates available. It could be your time.
10/08/2010
A Market Snapshot for California Real Estate Activity for 2010 and 2011
The market predictions for 2011 were given out just prior to the California Association of Realtors Expo October 5-8, 2010.The California median price for a single family house bottomed out in 2009 and in August 2010 the unsold inventory index was about 6.1 months, a market "normal". Unsold inventory by price is highest at the upper end of the market, and the lower end of the market is a 4 month supply. Affordability reached 70% in 2009 and 65% in 2010, meaning two out of three household can afford to buy an entry-level home in California.
Median price for condos was $258,000 statewide, sales of condos were up in the Spring. First time homebuyers are 44% of the market, especially for condos. However, 20% down payment was the median down payment statewide.
There are more non-distressed sellers coming on the market this year, comprising up to 59% of the market, while short sales are 22% of the market overall. Multiple offers (about 4) existed on 51% of properties in June, 2010. Sellers net about $35,000 in cash at close of escrow in 2010. FHA loans were used by 32% of all buyers.
Short sales or distressed property conditions were the reason for 29% of all sellers putting home on the market--a record number since the survey started.
Investors comprised about over 13% of purchasers, an active part of the economic recovery, while 5.3% were second home/vacation property purchases.
44% of buyers changed their minds after opening escrow, reflecting a great deal of fear and uncertainty about the market for many buyers.
2011 should bring a slight increase in sales volumeby 2% (to 502,000 units) and a slight increase in median home price of about 2% to $312,500 for the California median price. Interest rates are expected to remain low, with as much as a .5% increase in rates.
2011 should bring a prime opportunity to buy, but the actual number of move-up buyers and sellers is also of concern due to the number of owners with continuing negative equity in their homes who may hold off selling for a long period of time.
High cost loan limits ($729,750) will continue through September 2011, very important to the Califonria housing market, because the median home price is still significantly higher than the rest of the country.
Los Angeles County median home price is about $349,000, an increase of 2.8% over 2009. This is also a reflection of the movement in the low end of the market where properties have moved much more rapidly than the high end where some prices have softened.
Overall, home prices in the state have either stabilized or improved.
The "shadow inventory" properties held by the banks are predicted to be in a 3-5 year window for the foreclosed properties to return to the normal market, but prices are likely to hold steady because it is not in the lenders' best interests to flood the market with properties.
There is upward movement in low-end prices where there is a lot of competition between first-time buyers and investors, more than in the $1,000,000-plus market where there is much more inventory.
Long Beach is a "microcosm" of the state -- high end areas over $1,000,000 and low end areas such as North Long Beach with a high proportion of distressed properties, and will probably mirror similar Los Angeles County area performances. The recovery for the city will not be uniform, and will be a reflection of its various internal markets.
Modest price appreciation in the future is a much more realistic expectation than the 20%-plus gains during the boom years which precipitated the market downturn.
"We expect a net jobs increase of approximately 1.4 million jobs in California for the year to come and an improvement in unemployment figures,” Leslie Appleton-Young (CAR) said.
From the California Association of Realtors annual Realtor survey and the Housing Market Forecast for 2011.
9/27/2010
How Many Properties Under $300,000 in Long Beach?
This is the affordable range for many people, and it also attractors investors who have a lot of cash. Some properties give a 10-day period for owner-occupants to make offers, another reason why the buyer should be prepared in advance with loan approval and funds documentation to be ready to make that offer, assuming it's the property you want. Otherwise, try to find a property being sold by an equity seller.
The future will continue to feature distressed properties in one form or another: "Sales of distressed properties are set to peak in 2011 at 2.3 million transactions before falling to more normal levels at 850,000 in 2016, according to a report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting." Does that mean prices will continue to fall? It all depends . . . on the area and local real estate. That's why you should keep up with prices in the area of your interest, and stay in touch with a good lender and a good Realtor who can keep you updated on recent sale prices, interest rates and current lending guidelines (which can change every few months or every few weeks).
Nearby cities of Cerritos, Lakewood and Signal Hill also have properties, ranging in number from 22-27 each, under $300,000--the vast majority are condominiums with a small sprinkling of houses. Norwalk, however, has 200 properties, the majority being single family homes, so this is another area of opportunity for those willing to live a little further inland.
To see all properties of interest to you, including income property, just go to my website property search at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/.
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| Ocean Blvd Condo |
Today, the Southern California MLS (combined with CARETS) shows 631 properties in all areas of Long Beach. This is more than June, 2009 (431) and less than December, 2008 (737).
There are 269 single family homes of which 38 are bank-owned and 136 are short sales, the majority are in North Long Beach. There are 340 condos under $300k, of which 48 are bank-owned and 182 are listed as short sales. There are 13 co-ops, 4 require short sale approval and 1 is lender-owned. There are only 9 OYOs, probably because many have converted to condominium status in recent years--only 1 requires short sale approval and none are listed as bank-owned.
From these 4 categories, it's clear that short sales constitute nearly 50% of the market in this price range, while bank-owned properties, while bank-owned properties are about 14% of this category in Long Beach.
If you the buyer submits an offer on a short sale, know that they require patience and the ability to wait. The seller wants to avoid a foreclosure, and can usually only do so by obtaining short sale approval from the bank, and counting on the buyer to stick around for the entire process. Buyers should understand all of the short sale addendum terms, and be clear about the waiting period you've agreed to--if there is no waiting period (number of days) inserted in the addendum, that means you're committed to waiting until either the bank says it's not approved, or the bank says it's approved--whichever is longer. In other words, agree to 90 days and if there's no approval by that time, then it's safe to cancel and move on. A 30-day escrow including bank approval would not be realistic for almost all properties.
The future will continue to feature distressed properties in one form or another: "Sales of distressed properties are set to peak in 2011 at 2.3 million transactions before falling to more normal levels at 850,000 in 2016, according to a report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting." Does that mean prices will continue to fall? It all depends . . . on the area and local real estate. That's why you should keep up with prices in the area of your interest, and stay in touch with a good lender and a good Realtor who can keep you updated on recent sale prices, interest rates and current lending guidelines (which can change every few months or every few weeks).
Nearby cities of Cerritos, Lakewood and Signal Hill also have properties, ranging in number from 22-27 each, under $300,000--the vast majority are condominiums with a small sprinkling of houses. Norwalk, however, has 200 properties, the majority being single family homes, so this is another area of opportunity for those willing to live a little further inland.
To see all properties of interest to you, including income property, just go to my website property search at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/.
9/22/2010
Going Green: Recycle Your California Appliances
Is your refrigerator getting more expensive to run? I think mine is because it's now 10 years old, and my electricity usage is going up (but cleaning the coils can also lower electrical usage too). If you're going to replace them, don't dump your old appliances or have them hauled away before you check this program first. The California Energy Commission is behind the Cash4Appliances program. Click on the link for more information.
Don't dump your old appliances, instead, recycle them, and/or get a rebate through the listed partners if you bought from them. This includes Best Buy, Home Depot, Fry's, Howard's, Lowe's, and other major chains. I unfortunately do not see Sears on this list (where I bought my refrigerator). This program applies to residential occupants, and landlords and tenants of residential properties.
This program started in April, 2010, and will continue until funds are gone. Per their website today, there is over $11,000,000 available in funds. This program includes your refrigerator, clothes washer, room air conditioner, freezers, dishwashers, certain water heaters, and certain furnaces. As of July 28, eligible energy efficient appliances and rebate amounts available are: refrigerators $200, clothes washers $100, and room air conditioners up to $50. California Cash for Appliance PLUS rebates include: dishwashers $100, freezers $50, water heaters $300-$750, and HVAC systems: $500-$1000.
Another source for recycling refrigerators is through Southern California Edison, which will remove your working refrigerator and pay $35.
Don't dump your old appliances, instead, recycle them, and/or get a rebate through the listed partners if you bought from them. This includes Best Buy, Home Depot, Fry's, Howard's, Lowe's, and other major chains. I unfortunately do not see Sears on this list (where I bought my refrigerator). This program applies to residential occupants, and landlords and tenants of residential properties.
This program started in April, 2010, and will continue until funds are gone. Per their website today, there is over $11,000,000 available in funds. This program includes your refrigerator, clothes washer, room air conditioner, freezers, dishwashers, certain water heaters, and certain furnaces. As of July 28, eligible energy efficient appliances and rebate amounts available are: refrigerators $200, clothes washers $100, and room air conditioners up to $50. California Cash for Appliance PLUS rebates include: dishwashers $100, freezers $50, water heaters $300-$750, and HVAC systems: $500-$1000.
Another source for recycling refrigerators is through Southern California Edison, which will remove your working refrigerator and pay $35.
9/18/2010
FHA Loan Right After Short Sale?
Short sales are a problem for sellers who want to get into a new home right away. Besides the probable impact to your credit score and the issue or rebuilding it, there are normally the mortgage loan guidelines that require a waiting period of 2 or more years after a short sale, depending on the buyer and the loan.
But for certain buyers, there could be an option: If you are a borrower who has not suffered delinquent loan payments, but has suffered a market devaluation of your current home, you could be eligible for an FHA loan immediately upon sale of your current home IF:
1. You aren't selling your home and buying a new one simply to take advantage of today's lower prices;
2. You purchase at a reduced price a similar or superior property within a reasonable commuting distance;
3. The short sale is for your primary residence.
4. You are current on your mortgage payments and no 30-day late payments.
5. Your home is not pre-foreclosure (with a Notice of Default recorded against it).
6. You have no late payments on installment debt prior to the short sale.
The borrower's reasons for selling would have to be approved on the new loan's underwriter, but for example, if you're moving for school reasons for your child, or job relocation reasons for yourself, perhaps this loan is for you.
Please give me a call or e-mail me to see if this would work for you!
But for certain buyers, there could be an option: If you are a borrower who has not suffered delinquent loan payments, but has suffered a market devaluation of your current home, you could be eligible for an FHA loan immediately upon sale of your current home IF:
1. You aren't selling your home and buying a new one simply to take advantage of today's lower prices;
2. You purchase at a reduced price a similar or superior property within a reasonable commuting distance;
3. The short sale is for your primary residence.
4. You are current on your mortgage payments and no 30-day late payments.
5. Your home is not pre-foreclosure (with a Notice of Default recorded against it).
6. You have no late payments on installment debt prior to the short sale.
The borrower's reasons for selling would have to be approved on the new loan's underwriter, but for example, if you're moving for school reasons for your child, or job relocation reasons for yourself, perhaps this loan is for you.
Please give me a call or e-mail me to see if this would work for you!
Labels:
FHA,
Short Sale
9/15/2010
Condo Prices in Bixby Knolls and Belmont Hts/Belmont Shore/Bluff Park
The August 2010 median sold price of a condo in 90807 (Bixby Knolls and adjacent areas) actually increased by $10,000--to $170,000--compared to August 2009. That's down, however, from the $240,000 condo median in April. I chose this zip code because I actually underwent a first time experience ever of receiving a buyer's lender appraisal $20,000 less than the contract price. (This leads into issues about out-of-area appraisers and the AMCs, which will not be elaborated on here.) So therefore, it seemed a good idea to see what Clarus Data Metrics research revealed this month. The for-sale price in this zip code for condos shows an overall decrease in asking price by 23%, but an overall increase in selling price by 6%. December and April were two months of exceptionally high prices reaching up to the $300,000 median. The monthly number of units sold range from 4 to10 in the last 12 months, and the same range for properties in escrow each month over the last 12 months, currently up 75% from August 2009. The monthly total number of condos for sale ranges from 39 to 55 over the last 12 months.The August 2010 median sold price of a condo in 90803 (Belmont Shore, Bluff Park, Naples, etc.) actually decreased by 4%, ranging in median price from $550,000 to about $275,000 over the last 12 months, with the current median being $326,000. The median asking price is currently $50,000 lower than August 2009. The number of sold properties for August--15 condos--is one of the two highest months for the past 12 months. The number of condos in escrow has fluctuated from 6 to 15 per month in the last year--currently the pendings are down (by 3 units) from July and down from August 2009. Currently there are 83 condos on the market in this zip code, the lowest number was 59 last January. So although supply is up, so is demand--9 sold in August 2009, 15 sold in August 2010.
Buyers and sellers should know that lending in condos means a review of owner occupancy ratio (less than 75% is a deal killer for some lenders, less than 51% is a deal killer for all lenders), the number of owners delinquent in their HOA dues (can't be more than 15%), and existing lawsuits are all items that come under review in their review of the association's documents. Other issues could be HOA reserve funds and signs of lack of common area maintenance.
FYI: "Median" is not the same as "average"--the median number divides the group into two equal halves: Half the properties sold were above $326,000 and half were under that price.
Any why are those cows there? Because they like to keep an eye on things too.
8/27/2010
Advance Fees in California
Even though a law was passed in 2009 in California, there still seem to be advance fees being requested and sometimes paid for in exchange for certain services. Here is important language to read and understand, because there are people who are still trying to take advantage of homeowners who want a loan modification, loan modifications or attempts to avoid foreclosure that just don't work out. And the homeowner loses money.
It is illegal in California, as of October 11, 2009, for a lawyer, real estate broker, real estate salesperson, including corporations and companies, to demand or collect an upfront fee, retainer fee or other advance fee for loan modifications. There have been, and continues to be, many people who have lost thousands of dollars through misplaced trust. And, if you have experienced this, please click on the link below to find out more about reporting to the Attorney General.
Remember, calling up your own bank is the first step to finding out about loan modifications. A property owner is able to do this on their own, although you may want the assistance of a consultant, because it can be an involved and lengthy process, depending on your bank. But there is no advance fee that can be charged, not until the close of escrow.
See the Dept of Real Estate story.
It is illegal in California, as of October 11, 2009, for a lawyer, real estate broker, real estate salesperson, including corporations and companies, to demand or collect an upfront fee, retainer fee or other advance fee for loan modifications. There have been, and continues to be, many people who have lost thousands of dollars through misplaced trust. And, if you have experienced this, please click on the link below to find out more about reporting to the Attorney General.
Remember, calling up your own bank is the first step to finding out about loan modifications. A property owner is able to do this on their own, although you may want the assistance of a consultant, because it can be an involved and lengthy process, depending on your bank. But there is no advance fee that can be charged, not until the close of escrow.
See the Dept of Real Estate story.
8/24/2010
Tips for Increasing Your Home's Value
It's not unusual for a Realtor to hear a property owner say that their home is worth a certain amount because of a particular recent sale price of another house in their neighborhood. Many times the Realtor has a different opinion about the home's value than the property owner does, not because it ultimately couldn't, but because of the way it looks right now.
It's like selling a car: A prospective buyer is far more attracted to a pretty, shiny, vacummed-out, cleaned-up, polished car sitting out on the curb when they first pull up to take a look. They are far more ready to have a discussion about it, since it compares favorably or more favorably than most other cars they looked at, and a buyer is more ready at that point to believe the car has been well-maintained, which means it's worth more to them because there will be fewer repairs. And this is the same approach owners need to take with their houses and yards. You probably wouldn't consider getting maximum value out of your car without putting some effort into its presentation--and you need to do the same with your home:
It's like selling a car: A prospective buyer is far more attracted to a pretty, shiny, vacummed-out, cleaned-up, polished car sitting out on the curb when they first pull up to take a look. They are far more ready to have a discussion about it, since it compares favorably or more favorably than most other cars they looked at, and a buyer is more ready at that point to believe the car has been well-maintained, which means it's worth more to them because there will be fewer repairs. And this is the same approach owners need to take with their houses and yards. You probably wouldn't consider getting maximum value out of your car without putting some effort into its presentation--and you need to do the same with your home:
- Trim overgrown trees and bushes so that branches are at least 10 feet away from your roof -- and possibly include that same guideline for driveways, walkways, and outdoor sitting areas, or if vegetation visually obscures too much of your house so that it cannot be clearly seen from the street. Water your landscaping so that it looks green with no bare spots, and remove dead plants.
- Consider having the house power-washed--it may eliminate a paint job (unless you have the next issue). This should be done only by a professional.
- Touch up peeling paint. Not only is this an "attractiveness" issue, it signals negative messages about maintenance, and is also an FHA loan condition issue for an FHA buyer.
- Have a professional inspect your roof and replace curled or missing shingles. Remaining life-expectancy is important, especially if most of the nearby roofs are much newer looking. Stains and plant matter such as moss can be removed with a cleaning. Considering that total roof replacement could be up to $20,000, a roof in poor condition could make your house appraise lower.
- Routine maintenance and cleaning eliminates setting off alarms: repair gutters, obtain a pest/mold inspection report annually, replace missing bricks, repair exposed wood beams and window frames, remove or repair deteriorated gates and fencing.
- Colorful plantings in the are a minimal investment, but will do much to show off your yard and your home.
It's important to remember that the money invested now will help you obtain a higher price from the buyer, and will help to eliminate value issues when the buyer's appraiser comes out to see your property during escrow. Many times sellers overestimate the amount required to prepare -- this amount will also depend on how much deferred maintenance you have and your budget. Spending $2000-$5000 dollars may bring you another $10,000-$15,000 in price, or at least help your house sell faster if your market is sluggish. Attempting to sell without any preparation could affect offering price, impact negotations during escrow if the buyer discovers further issues through their physical inspection and decides to walk away, and/or impact the appraisal.
You can find more information on the Landscaping checklist and at the HouseLogic tab at the top of this blog.
8/13/2010
The Economic Impact from a California Home Sale
While at a meeting yesterday, I heard a statement from another attendee that somewhere between 30-50% of California's job market has been directly affected by the change in the housing market in this state--the local closings of some long-established independant businesses and the empty storefronts are a testimony to that.
When the prices of the housing market were out of reach of many buyers, I frequently heard and read statements about what a good thing it would be if housing prices dropped "back where they should be." But nothing happens in a vacuum, and when housing prices fell, so did the rest of the economy. The activity generated through the sale of one residential property conducted through a REALTOR® in California may impact up to 40 different occupations, starting with the buyer's lender and its employees and underwriters, appraisal services, escrow officer and affiliated company, title company representatives and employees, home warranty company, MLS employees, all the internet and print advertising services for marketing the property and which help to attract the buyer, accountants and attorneys connected to the transaction, home stagers whose services may be critical to helping sell the property at current market price, insurance agent, messenger companies, home construction contractors, moving truck services, property managers, car rental companies, to name some of those closer to the "ripple" effect. All of these occupations serve vital connections to a real estate transaction, and moreover, a Realtor usually has requirements to assist or coordinate with many of these participants, each of which has its own job to do. Without a home sale, many people are literally "out of the swim".
Information reported in 2009 from National Association of Realtors, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies shows that when one home is sold in California, the income generated from real estate related industries $49,383.00, the additional expenditures on furniture, paint, and applicances is $5,331.00. Also, there is addtional economic multiplier impact as greater spending on charity, sports events and restaurants estimated to be $26,263.00. The new home production value, estimated at one new home constructed for 8 existing home sales, is $68,588. The total income derived from the sale of one California home (report used an earlier CA median price of $548,700--currently $311,950 for a single family home as of June, 2010) is $149,564. The National Association of Home Builders has estimated that nationally, approximately $8,900 is spent on home furnishings and improvements within 12 months following a home sale. In other words, what happens to the housing industry happens to a lot of people.
When the prices of the housing market were out of reach of many buyers, I frequently heard and read statements about what a good thing it would be if housing prices dropped "back where they should be." But nothing happens in a vacuum, and when housing prices fell, so did the rest of the economy. The activity generated through the sale of one residential property conducted through a REALTOR® in California may impact up to 40 different occupations, starting with the buyer's lender and its employees and underwriters, appraisal services, escrow officer and affiliated company, title company representatives and employees, home warranty company, MLS employees, all the internet and print advertising services for marketing the property and which help to attract the buyer, accountants and attorneys connected to the transaction, home stagers whose services may be critical to helping sell the property at current market price, insurance agent, messenger companies, home construction contractors, moving truck services, property managers, car rental companies, to name some of those closer to the "ripple" effect. All of these occupations serve vital connections to a real estate transaction, and moreover, a Realtor usually has requirements to assist or coordinate with many of these participants, each of which has its own job to do. Without a home sale, many people are literally "out of the swim".8/03/2010
Houses in Long Beach for July: Prices Softer, Sales Volume Up
July in Long Beach was a pretty busy month for single family home sales but it also saw a lowering of the median price: 196 sold at an overall median of $360,000, down from $380,000 and $375,000 from the prior two months, and down 5% from July, 2009. The July average for sold-price-to-list-price was 98%, with a low of 72%.
The peak for the last 12 months was $415,000 in November, 2009. The median list price, however, has steadily increased since December, 2009, and is up 4% from one year ago, with 1,234 single family homes currently on the market citywide. And, total number of SFRs in escrow is up 42% since one year ago and at 276 houses, is at the highest number under contract in the last 12 months. But, expired properties in all price ranges were at the highest number in the last 12 months, while the months' supply of inventory is at the lowest in the last 12 months. It has never been more important to price the house right and make the right improvements for showing.
A quick search on the MLS shows that today, there are 528 single family houses in escrow, and 434 of them are under $500,000, and 94 are listed over $500,001. See the entire report for single family houses.
The peak for the last 12 months was $415,000 in November, 2009. The median list price, however, has steadily increased since December, 2009, and is up 4% from one year ago, with 1,234 single family homes currently on the market citywide. And, total number of SFRs in escrow is up 42% since one year ago and at 276 houses, is at the highest number under contract in the last 12 months. But, expired properties in all price ranges were at the highest number in the last 12 months, while the months' supply of inventory is at the lowest in the last 12 months. It has never been more important to price the house right and make the right improvements for showing.
A quick search on the MLS shows that today, there are 528 single family houses in escrow, and 434 of them are under $500,000, and 94 are listed over $500,001. See the entire report for single family houses.
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