Sales Trend is Getting Stronger in Long Beach Area

If you saw the post from earlier in the month, you read about the strong decline inventory in Long Beach for February 2009 to 6 months and under, especially compared to the same time last year (data courtesy of RealDataStrategies and the SoCalMLS). The chart at the right shows the upward movement (although I don't believe "median price" data is necessarily applicable to all local areas or neighborhoods due to many other conditions). There's additional news around about some 2008 markets actually increasing over 2007, per Anthony Carr's post at Realty Times, including:

"Texas - 3.6 percent, South Dakota – 3.6 percent, Montana – 2.6 percent, Mississippi – 1.7 percent, Utah - 1.5 percent, New Mexico - 1.3 percent".

This data comes from a Bloomberg.com report using data by FirstAmerican CoreLogic, based in Santa Ana, California.

And, per Dataquick's March 19 report for California statewide sales, the increase has been going on here for the last 8 months, while the median price remains stable:

"An estimated 29,225 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was down 0.8 percent from 29,458 in January and up 42.5 percent from 20,513 for February 2008. Sales have increased on a year-over-year basis the last eight months."

Dataquick's report for February for Southern California: "Sales have increased on a year-to-year basis since last July."

"The market is so tilted away from normal mainstream activity that it's impossible to generalize or predict based on the atypical patterns we're seeing. That means that normal demand and supply is building up. The floodgates could open once mortgage credit starts to open up," said John Walsh, MDA DataQuick president.

Further, in the Long Beach area, February of this year is reportedly 3rd highest in sales after October and November of 2008. And today, Freddie Mac states mortage rates are near or at the bottom, and any further reductions would be "incremental". Rates for 30-year fixed mortgages are at 4.85%, the lowest in its history of surveys which began in 1971, "down a full percentage point from a year ago", and rates for a 15-year fixed mortgage dropped to 4.58%.

With constant repetition in the media about foreclosures and the hard times of many, it's hard for buyers to believe that by waiting, they can be waiting too long for their area. If the current decline in housing inventory persists, the competition scenario is likely to emerge at some point in time in certain areas, in fact it already has for some properties judging by the show of hands at last Thursday's broker meeting from agents dealing with multiple offers for their clients.