Able and Baker, Two People in the Subprime Economy

Here's what I found in my e-mail today:

Let’s discuss two California families and the real estate market. We’ll call them Able and Baker.

Able sold a home at the top of the real estate market for $500,000 and bought a new home for $800,000, paying 10% down and getting a new adjustable rate mortgage for the remainder. Baker stayed in their existing $500,000 home and we all applauded Able for selling at the top of the market.

There are many different opinions on the amount of the drop in prices but we can all agree prices have dropped, more in some areas than others. For our example, we will use a simplified 35% drop on all homes.

Today, Able is in their home with a loan still around $720,000 and can’t refinance because their value is $520,000. Their property taxes are still hovering around $8,000 per year (my note: but does he know about property tax reduction offered by the county?). This is called being underwater, and they could be facing tax problems because of forgiveness of debt, etc.

Baker decides to sell today and finally move up to a bigger home. Their home has dropped in value and they think they have suffered a loss of $175,000 as the home is worth only $325,000. They sell and buy the former $800,000 home for $520,000. They get a loan for $468,000 at the current rate of under 5% and their taxes will be about $5,200 per year.

They might also qualify for a $8,000 tax credit and other inducements in today’s market. Also, there could be appreciation as the market recovers and would you rather have appreciation start now on a $325,000 home or a $520,000 home? Plus they’re living in their move-up home and the family is happy. So, who is better off now. Able or Baker?

Do you think we're at the bottom of the market?

See http://www.juliahuntsman.com/ for property searches.

Thinking Green: Using Light Colored Roofing and Paint

In a visit with one of my past clients today (who painted his roof white after his house closed escrow over 10 years ago), it came as a revelation that California has passed a law effective July 1, 2009, that residential roofs on new construction, both flat and sloping, must be re-roofed with a white or light material. Actually, the law for a white flat roof has been in effect since 2005. See this article provided through the California Energy Commission.

The argument is of course for energy savings, and reflects a practice long used in ancient societies that populate hot climates where light or white clothing is standard practice, and whitewash is used on all structures. The cooling effect has long term energy savings implications, especially for the Western states, and especially for California where energy conservation is fast becoming an outright demand. A California Energy Commission board member states that it has long been known that white-roofed buildings stay cooler in hotter weather:

"painting urban surfaces in warm parts of the world white or a light color could offset the carbon emissions of all 600 million of the world's cars for 18 to 20 years — at a savings equivalent to at least $1 trillion worth of CO2 reductions."

"It turns out that they cool the air outside of their walls, too. On a typical summer day, Los Angeles is 5 degrees warmer than surrounding areas, and studies have consistently shown that by far the largest factor in this discrepancy is the absorption of solar heat by dark roofs and pavement — a phenomenon known as the "urban heat island" effect."

So far, this law affects new construction, but doesn't it make sense to apply these principles to existing structures wherever possible? Rethinking guidelines for historic homes might be in order.

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Five Principles of Home Staging

Home staging is economical and a well-proven benefit to Realtors and home owners alike. Here are some basic staging principles every home seller can use:

Become a Seller, Not a Dweller
Homeowners must make the mental shift necessary to become Sellers, not Dwellers. It is only then sellers are able to realize they own a commodity to be sold and no longer their home. The way we live in our homes is different than the way we sell our homes. With this mental shift in place, the next step in the process may begin.

Clean and De-clutter
De-cluttering is the first principle used in home staging. Clutter is defined as those items in a room that are not necessary for its function or beauty. Clutter can be too many books, knickknacks, or accessories. With staging, only key accessories and furniture remain. The property will immediately appear more spacious and well cared for.

Here are some tips to keep in mind as it applies to de-cluttering:
A buyer wants to purchase a move-in ready home. A house that is not clean implies deferred maintenance.
A buyer is purchasing square footage. Clear the clutter to create the impression of more space.
Let the light in; buyers are drawn to open, airy spaces.

Appeal to the Masses
With the de-cluttering process accomplished, the next phase is depersonalizing. The buyer will want to mentally personalize it and imagine living in the house when it becomes theirs. This includes using neutral tones throughout as well as general updates which will appeal to the largest segment of potential buyers.

Realtors no longer have the almost impossible task of telling homeowners their faux finished pink bathroom really needs a neutral tone of paint (put in before and after of pink bathroom) or their beloved collection of gargoyles will turn off potential buyers.

If You Can't See It, You Can't Sell It.
Curb appeal is everything. It's the first impression a potential buyer gets of the home. Remember, if you can’t see it you can’t sell it. The easiest and best way to determine what needs to be done to the outside of the home and the lawn is to walk across the street. Look objectively at what the home looks like from that vantage point. Then, take the following curb appeal test:

1. Are the gutters clean and in good repair?
2. How does the driveway look?
3. Do the shrubs need pruning?
4. Do the trees need trimming?
5. How do the flower beds look?
6. Is the walkway leading to the house inviting?
7. Does the lawn look clean and neat?
8. Are the house numbers clearly visible?
9. Does the entryway and front door make a great first impression?
10. Are toys, tools, hoses and any other distracting items put away?


It is only after answering and addressing the above curb appeal issues that the seller will have passed the “curb appeal test.”

Maximize Strong Points; Minimize Shortcomings
Finally, it’s important to show off the home’s best features, while hiding its flaws. Showcase focal points such as fireplaces, wood floors, and expansive views and divert attention away from less attractive features by creating alternate interest.

If a home seller is willing to follow these simple steps – clean and de-clutter, depersonalize, increase curb appeal and maximize the home’s strong points - they greatly improve the chances of selling their home quicker and for top dollar.

Amie Hebert Chaney, a Home Staging Expert (HSE), says Home Staging is the art of preparing a home for market to give the best possible first impression to potential buyers, resulting in a quicker sale and higher profit. The intent behind home staging is for potential buyers to be able to see the home as theirs. Copyright© 2008, Amie H. Chaney. All right reserved. For information contact FrogPond at 800.704.FROG(3764) or email susie@FrogPond.com.

Long Beach, Cerritos, Lakewood Unsold Inventory Index in Steady Decline

The residential inventory in many areas of Long Beach is steadily declining, as of today in Long Beach, there are 831 single family homes and condos listed as "active" in the MLS (down from about 870 just a few weeks ago), with 775 in escrow.
Cerritos has 66 active residential listings, and has 67 in escrow.
Lakewood has 99 active listings, and 148 residential properties in escrow.

The gap of available properties is closing.

The median price statewide has increased for the 5th straight month, as sales in lower priced inventory has dropped, and more sales occurred in the upper ranges.

While the suspense concerning future inventory continues, as the home supply backlog grows, it's important to keep in mind: nobody knows for certain how and when and where the increase in inventory will happen.

Per the California Association of Realtors August report:

"With inventory levels well below the long-run average, a supply shortage at the low to middle-tiers may have constrained sales in lower-priced homes and led to an increase in the median price. The supply of homes is expected to increase later this year as the number of foreclosures continues to rise from last year. However, the government and lenders’ efforts in modifying loans, combined with delays in processing the backlog of delinquencies may ease the number of defaulted loans, thus making a prediction on the number and timing of the flow of distressed properties less certain."

Find a residential or investment property through the MLS search.

Moving Forward or Still Going in Circles?

With more properties now receiving offers within days coming on the market, multiple offers, and selling over list price, at least some smart buyers are beginning to understand a current reality. They are having to compete against investors, or against other buyers who have more cash than they do. The days of casually looking, window shopping and low-ball offers should be left behind as quickly as possible. Thinking that the mountain will come to Mohammed, as wishful thinking takes over pricing reality, should be done with. It is time to stop moving in circles, the one where offers are made, lost in the multiple offer shuffle, then repeated again at the next property where the cycle repeats itself, over and over again.

It is time to move forward.

It is time to make the winning bid. To make the winning bid, a realistic property has to be chosen, and that realistic property may be one which doesn't look so attractive initially, but is in the right area, and for which suitable financing is available. Perhaps it will require a higher down payment, or an FHA rehab loan. Otherwise, choosing the price you want in an area you don't really feel certain about, and then expecting the seller to reduce the price to your lowered expectations, is sheer folly. It is time to move forward.

There's been much talk about the REO properties that will hit the market, perhaps before the end of this year. And will they bring a new low in bargain prices? That's the way many buyers continue to act. But there's so far been evidence supporting stabilization in prices, if not a regional increases in price. A 3% increase in the West according to the Clear Capital Home Data Index report discusses how the momentum built in recent months could carry over into REO properties placed on the market in the future as buyers worry they are missing out on the bottom of the market.

The time for the $8000 tax credit is still in effect until December 1, 2009. Whether you're interested in houses, condos or units, please contact me. I can help you move forward.

Fewer Homes to Buy as Sales Increase, Prices Jog Upward

Various industry sources have reported that June, 2009 showed the highest California median price this year at $274,740 (statewide median). June sales showed at 20 percent increase over the prior year. The statewide unsold inventory in June was at 4.1 months, locally the figure is even lower. Per the July 2009 report from California Association of Realtors: "The index is now 3.5 months lower than a year earlier and well below the peak of 16.6 months in early 2008. In fact, low inventories may constrain sales and contribute to upward pressure on home prices through the rest of the busy season."

The higher end properties are accounting for more sales, with properties below $500,000 accounting for about 76%, down from 85% at the beginning of the year. From March to June, the market share of distressed properties declined, contributing to the increase in median price.

Los Angeles County median sales price, July 2009, at $340,000; Orange County median at $490,000.

News about Southern California from Dataquick as of August 18th:

"In the region’s more affordable areas, many first-time buyers continued to choose government-insured FHA financing. Such loans were used to finance 37.2 percent of home purchases last month, up from 36.9 percent in June and 19.7 percent a year ago. "

"The recent drop in foreclosure resales, coupled with the rise in high-end sales, has helped stabilize some of the regional home price measures. But there’s still quite a bit of distress out there, and plenty of unknowns with regard to how lenders and borrowers will choose to proceed,” said John Walsh, DataQuick president.

And probably the most telling comment about the future:

“Even if we are at or near bottom,” he added, “history suggests we could bounce along that bottom for quite a while.”

Sales Increasing Now, What Will Next Year Bring?

There is a great deal of talk lately about the upward climb in sales, that maybe we're seeing the bottom of the market, and that prices are down from this time last year, but it's the 5th straight month of sales increases, and the best sales record in several years . . . so maybe prices are stabilizing, or even headed up a little? That's happening in some places, and yesterday's great REO panel of experienced brokers even said it's impossible to underprice a property today because it will get multiple offers and sell for more.

But take a look at the Credit Suisse chart at the right and the pink part of the graph--the reset of the "option adjustable rate" loans. Those are the loans where the "start rate" of 1% were thought by many borrowers to be their permanent loan rate, and not the introductory rate which if always paid at that payment level (and most people did that), meant the remainder of the interest of the real interest rate was added on to their principal loan amount and thus increasing it. It was one more way to end up "under water" on the home value, and end up as a loan modification customer, a short sale candidate, a bankruptcy claimant, and/or as a foreclosure recipient. And then, most importantly, notice that the reset periods do not decline until well into 2012.

Along with the recent sales increase is declining inventory: In Long Beach today there are 877 active residential listings in the MLS, and there are 753 in escrow. Also, as of 8/18/2009, there are 1910 Notices of Default filed, 1224 Trustee Sales filed, and 1426 REO properties, not on the market yet, making a total of 4,560 properties not yet on the market. (Some of the NODs may have successful loan modifications, but there is also a separate study of the percentage of loan mods that end up failing and do end up in foreclosure.) These figures are for Long Beach alone--similar profiles could be drawn for cities throughout the State of California.

Tied in with this is the talk of "shadow inventory" and the rumors that banks will flood the market with all of their pent-up inventory at once. But that is unlikely to happen in such an overt way, despite the hope of many prospective buyers who believe a $400,000 house might eventually sell for $25,000. Received yesterday in my e-mail from DSnews.com:

Perhaps it’s “government pressure to clean up balance sheets,” or the thawing out of home sales, the need for capital, or the growing pool of players in the mortgage-backed assets market. Whatever the motivation, more banks are beginning to unwind their positions in toxic residential loans.

See this story about a Milwaukee-based bank that sold 800 troubled Arizona mortgages to an undisclosed investor, thus clearing $297 million of bad loans from its balance sheets. Will this trend catch on with major banks who decide to sell off in bulk to cut their losses? There seems to be more interest now by investors willing to acquire properties associated with "toxic loans".

The current shrinking inventory may be a combination of things: the loan modifications, the foreclosure moratoriums which have been delaying filings, and the ultimate decisions by banks as to the handling of foreclosed properties, plus the "catching up" with loans in default for months and that are yet to go into foreclosure. Those involved with the REO market believe that over time, perhaps as soon as in a few short months, the inventory will once again increase greatly, continuing to affect housing market prices, and the real estate market will not fully recover from the effects of the subprime market until 2012-2014, as indicated by the chart above.

So what should equity sellers do? Take advantage of this period of time, and realize that now, when there is less competition and many cash buyers (accounting for one-third of the multiple offers on many REO properties), may be a better time to sell than a year from now, when you could end up being a short sale if your equity continues to decline with the market. In some areas short sales and bank-owned properties already dominate the inventory; in the last year certain zip codes that seemed immune, or less impacted, to these issues are now common, such as:

• In 90803, 23% of the 177 active and pending listings are distressed sales
• In 90802, 68% of the 280 active and pending listings are distressed sales

and in the future, if the local and statewide foreclosure statistics are any indication, distressed sales will impact equity sales even more severely than they are now.

If you would like to know about the current market value of your home, please contact me. To see properties on the market in your area, you may search by zip code or city, price, etc., at the MLS property search button at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/.

Have Your Documents Ready When You Call Your Lender

Are you at the critical point of "do I stay or do I go?"

In California, there are currently about one-third of all mortgages "under water", so many borrowers are contacting their lenders concerning loan modifications, or payment catch-up, their pre-foreclosure status, or a combination of all three. Borrowers are frustrated with the amount of time it takes when they contact their lender. Some banks are gradually become more efficient as they are assigning more people to their loss mitigation and loan modification efforts. Banks are still very swamped, and the average consumer is unaware of their low staffing and high demand.

To find a faster answer on which point of action you need to take, and to save yourself and your mortgage servicer precious time, when you call you should have ready:

• The most recent monthly mortgage statement


• Pay stubs or other documents showing your household's monthly pre-tax income


• Most recent tax return


• Second loan or home equity line of credit statements


• Account balances and minimum monthly payments on credit cards, car loans, student loans or other debt.


• A short, concise description of the financial hardship that is causing - or leading to - a mortgage delinquency.

See this Freddie Mac video posted on their site and on YouTube: Stop Foreclosure--Documents Your Lender Needs -- it's had over 4,000 hits in the last 30 days.

If you have decided you need to consider selling as a "short pay" (not all loan modification requests are granted by banks), please contact me for a market valuation and information on how I can help you with the process. Typically, different bank personnel involved in a short pay approval are other than those you may already have been dealing with on your loan modification effort, but your information you have gathered up to this point may save you some time.
Contact me for more information.

How To Be Beautiful with Dry Gardens in Southern California

We love lawns, we love lush green semi-tropical plants, and we love them in dry, desertous Southern California because they grow so well here in this temperate and sunny climate.

But did you know? Lawns and outdoor landscaping consume as much as 49% of our water use in the Long Beach area. If you've seen my past blogs on the subject, you know that Los Angeles and other Southern California cities, including the other desert areas, have been concerned about water use for a long time--for decades, as a matter of fact. Yet, we persist in our East Coast style of landscaping brought here by our forebears. This becomes more expensive with the passing of time--Long Beach is scheduled to raise its water rates this fall, although residents have done well so far in reducing water consumption by 10% through the current city-mandated watering schedule restricting outdoor use to 3 days per week at certain times.

Lawns in particular had a purpose in the past, and it wasn't related to beauty. Lawns derive from the green pastures once kept by owners of cows, because back when we were a more agricultural, less industrial society, financial status and its production could be measured by the amount of land people owned, their crops and their animals. Cows needed green grazing areas, so the more cows one owned, the more pasture was required, and this over time became the foundation for our attachment to lawns, long after the cows disappeared from the average homeowner's life.

Today, we need to fit in with our natural climate conditions, as well as the current water shortage upon us. Beautiful Long Beach Landscapes right into saving money while creating beautiful gardens using native plants. The photos above are "before" and "after" of one house selected by a Long Beach landscaping program. Another great source is at BeWaterWise for landscape and planting ideas.

For more information, go to http://www.juliahuntsman.com/gardening-landscaping-for-home.html