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Where is California Real Estate Going for 2012?

Here are highlights from the September California Association of Realtors presentation on market predictions for California in 2012:

• Sales volume between Aug 2010 and Aug 2011 of detached homes was up by over 8%.
• Los Angeles County median price at $312,900 for detached homes down 7% from one year ago; Riverside County median price of $202,060 down 2.9% one year ago.
• Calfornia homes: 2 in 5 sold were distressed properties.
• California median home price of an equity sale was $431,000, for REO it was $240,000; a short sale was $287,000, for similar sized houses.
• In 2011, sellers' median net from sale was $75,000, highest amount since 2009.
• All-cash sales are over 25% of homes sold -- the highest percentage since 2000.
• The predicted 2012 California overall median house price is $296,000, an increase of 1% from 2011.
• Here is the entire California Housing Market 2012 Forecast presentation

“Forget stocks. Don't bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing.”  “Real estate: It’s time to buy again” Fortune Magazine’s 3/28/11 article written by Shawn Tully.

Buyers of Long Beach Condominiums Are Using More Conventional Loans--or All Cash

In Long Beach, condominiums tend to be concentrated in several specific areas, and two of these are in the downtown and shoreline area zip codes. Condominiums are a wonderful homeowner opportunity, also attractive to many segments of the buying population for investment/rental reasons as well.

A total of 105 condominiums sold in 90802 zip code (downtown Long Beach, Alamitos Beach and Ocean Blvd.) between June 1 and August 31 in prices ranging from $60,199 to $775,000:

As reported in the MLS, all-cash buyers represented 28 (or 27%) of these sales, most for units under $200,000; 30 units were listed as REO (bank-owned) properties; 35 units were listed as subject to short pay approval; 35 units were listed as standard or equity sales (33%).  Per the MLS, 58% were financed: only 12 were reported as purchased with FHA financing, 2 with VA loans, while 47 units were purchased with conventional financing.

A total of 29 condominiums sold in 90802 zip code (Marina Pacifica, Bluff Park, Belmont Heights, Naples, Belmont Shore) in the same time period, from $134,000 to $665,000.

As reported in the MLS, all-cash represented 7 sales(or 24%); only 1 FHA financing, 19 conventional loans (69%); 16 units were standard equity sales (50%); while 8 were closed as short sale properties and 4 were listed as REO properties.

FHA financing, which used to be the great introduction to the first time buyer's purchase is increasingly a very limited vehicle for financing a condo.  Why? Because homeowner associations are not renewing their FHA project approvals, without which there is no FHA financing in that association. In a check of the HUD project approval list for Long Beach, the associations are dropping off the active list at an alarming rate. For some, it's a problem of having too many delinquent dues--but surprisingly, some HOAs may not even know they have expired as the old Board members have long since left the scene.  For others, they do not know that since 2008 FHA no longer does "spot" approvals, as they once did financing on a unit-by-unit basis, so they are not aware that they are limiting the ability to attract new homeowners. If you are a current condo owner, you should investigate what your association can do to obtain FHA approval--if only to enhance the prospect of obtaining a reverse mortgage if you are in the over-62 age bracket. Reverse mortgages are generally FHA loans, but if your project isn't approved, you will not be able to obtain one.

Both buyers and sellers need to be actively aware of these condo financing issues and investigate in advance their loan options with both FHA and conventional loans. While FHA is 3.5% down, it also has some other expenses rolled into the loan which a conventional loan does not.  There are some sources for 5% down conventional financing, which is more likely to be a better fit. If FHA is your only option because of your overall loan qualification circumstances, be prepared for a very diligent and patient search for the right homeowner association that is FHA approved before you make the offer.  And as we see above, all-cash buyers make up about one-quarter to one-third of the condo buying market in these areas.

Please contact me or visit my website for more information.

Single Family Sales--Market Snapshot for May & Past 12 Months in Long Beach

Date: Avg price Dec 2010 to May 2011
'Single Family Residence'
 'Long Beach'

The most sales of single family homes in Long Beach within in past 2 years is in the $200,000-$300,000 price range: a total of 1,347. The top selling area in that price range in the last 12 months was in North Long Beach, with 821 closed sales in the last 12 months, and continues to have the highest sales volumes for May, at 71 sales, in the same price category!

Based on a group of 60 listings, Bixby Knolls/California Heights area averaged $562,025 in May with 25 sales, with the Plaza and Los Altos areas at 21 and 20 sales for May. The top 5 areas in average sales price for May are Belmont Heights at $878,900, Belmont Shore/Naples at $842,000, Park Estates at $749,000 (4 sales), Bixby Knolls/Cal Heights, and Lakewood Village at $544,000. Remember, these monthly average sold prices are based on properties sold during May, and are not their list prices.
Overall, the chart, based on MLS data, shows an  upward trend--with monthly variances--in average price since December 2010 for the City of Long Beach.

Long Beach Single Family House Sales in April 2011

For the top ten sales areas (by numbers of sales), for both April 2011 and April 2010, does it look like we're having more houses sold? Yes!


April 2011 Long Beach House Sales

Based on a total of 130 listings for April 2011 and about 83 listings for April, 2010, these charts are the picture of activity for these areas.  The most sales in April 2011 (in this chart) took place in the Bixby Knolls/California Heights area at 38 sales closed, at an average selling price of over $449,000. Belmont Heights shows 20 sales at average of $631,000 and 21 sales at a $455,000 average in the Plaza/Ranchos.

April 2010 Long Beach House Sales

This seems to be a downward price shift and an upward shift in sales, from last year's lower number of sales and higher prices.  Last April the emphasis was on Belmont Heights/Alamitos Heights area which had a total of 19 sales at an average of $862,000 selling price, followed by 2 other areas with averages of $546,000 (Lakewood Plaza/Ranchos) and $481,000 (Los Altos areas).



In fact, Altos Research indicates for THIS WEEK, there is a decrease in days on market for all of Long Beach residential properties, currently the average is 150 days, a decrease from prior weeks. (Some properties are getting offers in 7 days after hitting the MLS.)

Will there will be a point where lower price and increasing number of sales signals triggers the opportune time to buy for an even greater number of buyers? If you think this is the critical time for you in one of these areas, or another, call me to find out how I can assist you!



The House Market in Long Beach Has Increased Last 3 Months



Long Beach Sales of Single Family Houses last 6 months

The Long Beach single family home market has been busy, especially in the last 3 months. Both the average sales price and the number of sales of houses has gone up.  The chart to the right is based on a group of about 1100 listings in the entire city, from November 2010 to the April 26, 2011, where the average price has risen from $379,515 to $419,100:

Month, #of Sales, Avg Price

Nov 2010 150  $379,515

Dec 2010  143  $387,407

Jan 2011   166  $374,575

Feb 2011  184  $404,359

Mar 2011  223  $435,699

Apr 2011  226  $419,100

LB condo avg price last 6 months

The news about condos is not the same: based on results of 330 condo listings in the same time period, the average condo price in Long Beach as a whole has dropped $225,042 to $133,969.

Figures for certain homeowner associations and certain local markets may vary, because of the concentration of sales data in the distressed property markets in certain geographic locales, which impact the overall city-wide results.
Data for Los Angeles County also shows a year-over-year drop for March of about $26,000 in the median sale price from March, 2010. In general, the condo market has been impacted strongly because they were the entry-level property by buyers who were vulnerable to the economy, a distressed property market which now attracting cash investors. However, for zip code 90803, Belmont Heights, Belmont Shore, Bluff Park and Naples, for the last 6 months, the stats show an upward trend--based on 42 listings--the sale price has increased from an average of $291,400 to $390,000. For 90802, we are back to the decrease in average selling price for the last 6 months: $225,000 in November to $100,000 in April, based on a group of 120 listings. Zip code 90814 has also decreased in its condo prices (Bluff Heights, parts of Belmont Heights, Rose Park areas).

For an evaluation of your house or condo, contact me, especially if you are not certain if your loan value is higher or lower than the market price for your home. There are options, and you should know your options now.
All chart data from CRMLS Matrix.

Long Beach Sales Are Still Moving Forward

There's a lot of talk about how flat the market is right now, but it's important to keep in mind that real estate is local.



6 months sales in Long Beach

 The 6 month sales volume chart for single family houses in Long Beach (since October 1, 2010) shows about 206 sales citywide for February, which is higher than previous months.
And looking at the entire zip code for 90803 for the last 2 years (Jan. 2008 to Feb. 2011), sales have peaked at 18,19 and 20 in each of the highest 3 months in that cycle. January of each year shows typically the lowest number of sales, ranging from 4 to 7.

(Four years ago shows June 2007 with a peak of 31 sales in 90803 (Belmont Heights, Belmont Shore, Naples, Bluff Park), the highest of the entire 4 year period in one month.)


3 year sales volume 90803

 The average days on market in 90803 in the last 6 months has ranged between 72 to 143; the average sale price in the last 6 months has ranged from $688,000 to $1,113,000.

For a market snapshot of the MLS information for your area, just contact me about current average prices, times to sell and other information to help you know your market.

Short Sales are Working Better in 2011

Lenders are primed for short sales in 2011 because short sales are a terrific option for homeowners struggling with unaffordable mortgage payments. In fact, lenders’ losses due to foreclosure are projected to increase at record rates in 2011, giving them more reason to pursue short sales. Lenders are projected to incur losses as severe as 85 percent in foreclosure! Meaning, after deducting the expense of the foreclosure process on a $100,000 loan, they may only get back $15,000!

It’s common sense that lenders will be looking toward the short sale solution. Even though they are accepting less than is owed on the property, they lose far less than in a foreclosure sale.

In fact, right now in the Long Beach market, short sale transactions for condos and lofts increased by more than 200 units from 2009 to 2010.  Short sale transactions for single family houses grew from approximately 762 home in 2009 to 875 homes in 2010, or about 27% of all sold, cancelled or expired single family listings in the MLS.

Thus far in 2011, there are 593 single family homes in short sale status as active, in escrow, or otherwise on the market, out of a total of 1280 or 46%; and 380 condos and loft units are in the same categories of short sale, out of a total of 738, or 51%.

It may be a surprise to many that lenders actually want to work out a solution that benefits all parties. Oftentimes, the lender is seen as the villain in the situation. I’ve found that the lenders want to avoid foreclosure just as much as homeowners. The free, downloadable report at "Distressed Property" called "On the Edge of Losing Your Home" on this website at Long Beach Condos and Homes talks more about working with your lender, and details all the foreclosure alternatives available to you.

Download the report and call me today; I can help you develop a plan to work with your lender and avoid foreclosure.

California Market: Neither the Best Nor the Worst?

The Housing Predictor has published its 25 best and 25 worst markets for 2011, and fortunately or unfortunately, California is not on either list. Are things getting better finally? The appreciation predicted for the 25 best areas ranges from 2.3% to 3.6%, and depreciation in the 25 worst markets ranges from 8.2% to 11.5%.  For Los Angeles County, Housing Predictor foresees an overall 5.4% loss for 2011, with Sacramento and San Diego faring a little better in the 3-4% loss range, with Sacramento also on the list for one of the first markets to recover.  Sacramento is considered one of the most affordable cities in the state. Meanwhile, pointing out that California is the world's 6th largest economy, and that it's not "falling into economic ruin", the sluggish housing market is still affecting Los Angeles County. The tax credit that boosted sales in 2010 is not around now. Per Realist Tax Data, in fact, the overall median price of a single family home did increase from October to November in Los Angeles County, from $330,000 to $335,000--but the median price of a condo decreased by $5,000 from $305,000 in October to $300,000 in November.

Per data by Dataquick released yesterday and published today by the LA Times, a Southern California median home price was up by 1% in December from November, even though lower when compared to the end of 2009, while sales volume was up (Dataquick tends to lump both house and condo prices into one overall median).

However, did you know that a long-gone single family loan type has returned? The 3% down conventional loan for houses is back on the scene--and some condos and condo buyers may be eligible for a 5% down conventional loan. These loans should be a great help to the conforming loan market buyers and sellers.

This would be a good time to review The Cost of Waiting To Buy -- a blog article that receives the most hits since last May.

Monthly 1-Minute Newsletter

See my monthly newsletter below for December, 2010. Just click on the logo below for the best summary around of local and regional market info! Have a very Happy New Year in 2011!



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What is the Trend in Long Beach House and Condo Prices Since Sept. 2008

The two-year picture for median selling price of single family homes in Long Beach is a pretty diverse picture, just like the city itself. From September 2008 to September 2010:

Interestingly, the overall drop for the SFR from 2 years ago is only 3% from $390,000 to $379000 (per CARETS data). This is in contrast to the median price for Los Angeles County which has increased from $339,500 (Sept. 2009) to $350,000 (per CoreLogic data). There is a 30% decrease in expired house listings, and the number of sold properties is up 15% over two years ago, while the months supply of inventory is down 33%.

Condos in Long Beach have taken a bigger hit--the median sold price has dropped 22% in two years from $263,000 to $205,000 from 2008-2010, and for Los Angeles County the median price has dropped from $337,000 to $320,000 from 2009-2010. The overall median for sale condo price in Long Beach has dropped 22% in the last 2 years, but there are fewer expired properties (down 37%), and an increase in the number of sold condos in the last 2 years, by 5%. The months supply of inventory is down 32% from two years ago.

For both houses and condos, the number of properties for sale is down by 26% and 22%, a condition that eventually may contribute to more listings on the market to meet demand, driving sales volume higher and in some cases sales prices higher as inventory decreases in certain areas.

A Market Snapshot for California Real Estate Activity for 2010 and 2011

The market predictions for 2011 were given out just prior to the California Association of Realtors Expo October 5-8, 2010.

The California median price for a single family house bottomed out in 2009 and in August 2010 the unsold inventory index was about 6.1 months, a market "normal". Unsold inventory by price is highest at the upper end of the market, and the lower end of the market is a 4 month supply. Affordability reached 70% in 2009 and 65% in 2010, meaning two out of three household can afford to buy an entry-level home in California. 

Median price for condos was $258,000 statewide, sales of condos were up in the Spring. First time homebuyers are 44% of the market, especially for condos. However, 20% down payment was the  median down payment statewide.

There are more non-distressed sellers coming on the market this year, comprising up to 59% of the market, while short sales are 22% of the market overall. Multiple offers (about 4) existed on 51% of properties in June, 2010. Sellers net about $35,000 in cash at close of escrow in 2010. FHA loans were used by 32% of all buyers.
Short sales or distressed property conditions were the reason for 29% of all sellers putting home on the market--a record number since the survey started.
Investors comprised about over 13% of purchasers, an active part of the economic recovery, while 5.3% were second home/vacation property purchases.
44% of buyers changed their minds after opening escrow, reflecting a great deal of fear and uncertainty about the market for many buyers.
2011 should bring a slight increase in sales volumeby 2% (to 502,000 units) and a slight increase in median home price of about 2% to $312,500 for the California median price. Interest rates are expected to remain low, with as much as a .5% increase in rates.

2011 should bring a prime opportunity to buy, but the actual number of move-up buyers and sellers is also of concern due to the number of owners with continuing negative equity in their homes who may hold off selling for a long period of time.

High cost loan limits ($729,750) will continue through September 2011, very important to the Califonria housing market, because the median home price is still significantly higher than the rest of the country.
Los Angeles County median home price is about $349,000, an increase of 2.8% over 2009. This is  also a reflection of the movement in the low end of the market where properties have moved much more rapidly than the high end where some prices have softened.


Overall, home prices in the state have either stabilized or improved.

The "shadow inventory" properties held by the banks are predicted to be in a 3-5 year window for the foreclosed properties to return to the normal market, but prices are likely to hold steady because it is not in the lenders' best interests to flood the market with properties.

There is upward movement in low-end prices where there is a lot of competition between first-time buyers and investors, more than in the $1,000,000-plus market where there is much more inventory.

Long Beach is a "microcosm" of the state -- high end areas over $1,000,000 and low end areas such as North Long Beach with a high proportion of distressed properties, and will probably mirror similar Los Angeles County area performances. The recovery for the city will not be uniform, and will be a reflection of its various internal markets.

Modest price appreciation in the future is a much more realistic expectation than the 20%-plus gains during the boom years which precipitated the market downturn.

"We expect a net jobs increase of approximately 1.4 million jobs in California for the year to come and an improvement in unemployment figures,” Leslie Appleton-Young (CAR) said.



From the California Association of Realtors annual Realtor survey and the Housing Market Forecast for 2011.

How Many Properties Under $300,000 in Long Beach?



Ocean Blvd Condo

Today, the Southern California MLS (combined with CARETS) shows 631 properties in all areas of Long Beach. This is more than June, 2009 (431) and less than December, 2008 (737).

There are 269 single family homes of which 38 are bank-owned and 136 are short sales, the majority are in North Long Beach.  There are 340 condos under $300k,  of which 48 are bank-owned and 182 are listed as short sales. There are 13 co-ops, 4 require short sale approval and 1 is lender-owned. There are only 9 OYOs, probably because many have converted to condominium status in recent years--only 1 requires short sale approval and none are listed as bank-owned.

From these 4 categories, it's clear that short sales constitute nearly 50% of the market in this price range, while bank-owned properties, while bank-owned properties are about 14% of this category in Long Beach.

If you the buyer submits an offer on a short sale, know that they require patience and the ability to wait. The seller wants to avoid a foreclosure, and can usually only do so by obtaining short sale approval from the bank, and counting on the buyer to stick around for the entire process. Buyers should understand all of the short sale addendum terms, and be clear about the waiting period you've agreed to--if there is no waiting period (number of days) inserted in the addendum, that means you're committed to waiting until either the bank says it's not approved, or the bank says it's approved--whichever is longer. In other words, agree to 90 days and if there's no approval by that time, then it's safe to cancel and move on. A 30-day escrow including bank approval would not be realistic for almost all properties.

This is the affordable range for many people, and it also attractors investors who have a lot of cash. Some properties give a 10-day period for owner-occupants to make offers, another reason why the buyer should be prepared in advance with loan approval and funds documentation to be ready to make that offer, assuming it's the property you want. Otherwise, try to find a property being sold by an equity seller.

The future will continue to feature distressed properties in one form or another: "Sales of distressed properties are set to peak in 2011 at 2.3 million transactions before falling to more normal levels at 850,000 in 2016, according to a report from John Burns Real Estate Consulting."  Does that mean prices will continue to fall? It all depends . . . on the area and local real estate. That's why you should keep up with prices in the area of your interest, and stay in touch with a good lender and a good Realtor who can keep you updated on recent sale prices, interest rates and current lending guidelines (which can change every few months or every few weeks).

Nearby cities of Cerritos, Lakewood and Signal Hill also have properties, ranging in number from 22-27 each, under $300,000--the vast majority are condominiums with a small sprinkling of houses. Norwalk, however, has 200 properties, the majority being single family homes, so this is another area of opportunity for those willing to live a little further inland.
To see all properties of interest to you, including income property, just go to my website property search at http://www.juliahuntsman.com/. 

Condo Prices in Bixby Knolls and Belmont Hts/Belmont Shore/Bluff Park

The August 2010 median sold price of a condo in 90807 (Bixby Knolls and adjacent areas) actually increased by $10,000--to $170,000--compared to August 2009. That's down, however, from the $240,000 condo median in April.  I chose this zip code because I actually underwent a first time experience ever of receiving a buyer's lender appraisal $20,000 less than the contract price. (This leads into issues about out-of-area appraisers and the AMCs, which will not be elaborated on here.) So therefore, it seemed a good idea to see what Clarus Data Metrics research revealed this month. The for-sale price in this zip code for condos shows an overall decrease in asking price by 23%, but an overall increase in selling price by 6%. December and April were two months of exceptionally high prices reaching up to the $300,000 median. The monthly number of units sold range from 4 to10 in the last 12 months, and the same range for properties in escrow each month over the last 12 months, currently up 75% from August 2009. The monthly total number of condos for sale ranges from 39 to 55 over the last 12 months.

The August 2010 median sold price of a condo in 90803 (Belmont Shore, Bluff Park, Naples, etc.) actually decreased by 4%, ranging in median price from $550,000 to about $275,000 over the last 12 months, with the current median being $326,000. The median asking price is currently $50,000 lower than August 2009. The number of sold properties for August--15 condos--is one of the two highest months for the past 12 months. The number of condos in escrow has fluctuated from 6 to 15 per month in the last year--currently the pendings are down (by 3 units) from July and down from August 2009. Currently there are 83 condos on the market in this zip code, the lowest number was 59 last January. So although supply is up, so is demand--9 sold in August 2009, 15 sold in August 2010.

Buyers and sellers should know that lending in condos means a review of owner occupancy ratio (less than 75% is a deal killer for some lenders, less than 51% is a deal killer for all lenders), the number of owners delinquent in their HOA dues (can't be more than 15%), and existing lawsuits are all items that come under review in their review of the association's documents. Other issues could be HOA reserve funds and signs of lack of common area maintenance.

FYI: "Median" is not the same as "average"--the median number divides the group into two equal halves: Half the properties sold were above $326,000 and half were under that price.

Any why are those cows there? Because they like to keep an eye on things too.

Houses in Long Beach for July: Prices Softer, Sales Volume Up

July in Long Beach was a pretty busy month for single family home sales but it also saw a lowering of the median price: 196 sold at an overall median of $360,000, down from $380,000 and $375,000 from the prior two months, and down 5% from July, 2009.  The July average for sold-price-to-list-price was 98%, with a low of 72%.

The peak for the last 12 months was $415,000 in November, 2009. The median list price, however, has steadily increased since December, 2009, and is up 4% from one year ago, with 1,234 single family homes currently on the market citywide. And, total number of SFRs in escrow is up 42% since one year ago and at 276 houses, is at the highest number under contract in the last 12 months. But, expired properties in all price ranges were at the highest number in the last 12 months, while the months' supply of inventory is at the lowest in the last 12 months. It has never been more important to price the house right and make the right improvements for showing.

A quick search on the MLS shows that today, there are 528 single family houses in escrow, and 434 of them are under $500,000, and 94 are listed over $500,001.  See the entire report for single family houses.

June's Median Price Showing An Increase in Long Beach/Lakewood Area

Single family median price in Long Beach

The median price in Long Beach for a single family home has gone up for June 2010 to $370,000, with a total of 205 homes sold in this category for the month. This is a general increase from the $353,000 median in June 2009. The number of days on the market is trending downward gradually, the current average is 66 days, compared to 72 last year. Of course, this is a broad figure designed only to show a general trend, since prices vary from local area averages of $250,000 to well over $1,400,000 in single family homes in Long Beach.

Lakewood single family median price

It's a similar story for the City of Lakewood, a smaller city conceived of through city planning in the 1950's and with not so much diversity in housing inventory and selling prices as Long Beach. In June of this year, the single family home median price was $400,000 compared to $375,000 last year.

Los Angeles County as a whole shows the same trend for single family homes: $342,000 this year, $326,000 last year, for the months of June (however, that's a drop from May 2010 median which was $350,000).

Condos in Long Beach are still not as strong as houses, but overall, offer a great investment while their prices are still lower. The median at $232,500 for the city has risen 2% from last year, but has fluctuated greatly in that time, with days on market currently at 96, lower than last year's 108.  The lowest days on market of 66 was in October 2009, matching end of year buying but mostly the 1st expiration of the $8000 tax credit. For Los Angeles County, the condo median dropped to $315,000 from $360,000 one year ago.

Long Beach Single Family Houses in May Are in Demand

Single family homes in Long Beach seem to be the one property type showing some consistency in price and numbers of sales recently. At the end of May, the median price of houses currently on the market was up 5% over last May, going from $375,000 to $395,000; while the median price of sold properties was up 28% compared to May 2009. The peak for sold price was in November, not surprisingly, as the initial homebuyer tax credit was scheduled to expire in December. The trend dropped in December, but the median list price and sold price has trended upward since then. Time will tell if the current tax credit extended to April 1, and the extended period to close until September 30, will show a similar peak, or will there continue to be activity?
I keep saying this, but many buyers, especially first-timers, don't realize that low mortgage rates (currently as low as 4.5% paying one point) is actually a price drop on your home. And for condo buyers who are seeing higher HOA fees compared to 5-8 years ago, a lower mortgage rate can make up for higher monthly fees. Plus, the borrower pays much less on the total loan over a 30-year period. See the entire May single family report.
Condos seem to see more peaks and valleys in the last year, with the median price of currently listed condos being down 2%, to $235,000 from $239,000 in May 2009, and the median price of solds is up10%, $200,000 to $220,000, since May 2009, with the overall supply of condo inventory now trending down for the last several months.

House and Condo Selling Prices in Long Beach for April 2010

Was April the month of the "Effect of the IRS Tax Credit"?  While I've been telling some people that the median price of condos, townhomes and lofts was still trending downward, for the city as a whole, it's been trending upward, by quite a bit. Truthfully, it's been jumping around all over the place. March and April saw increases from the prior year, with April showing a 25% increase in median price from last year to over $240,000, but not as high as September, 2009's median price of $255,000.

A similar graph for single family homes for April shows a 10% increase in the median price for Long Beach, to $370,000, with a different peak in price showing for last November at over $400,000 (the first "end" of the IRS buyer tax credit). For Los Angeles County in March, per tax data, condos priced at $325,000, a decrease from $330,000 in March 2009.

The median price for the city does not tell the entire story, and anyone wishing an analysis of their zip code or housing area should contact me for a custom report. For Los Angeles County per tax data, the single family home median price for March 2010 was at $340,000, an increase from $303,000 for March 2009.

Sales volume for LA County in March in both categories increased over the prior year.

Long Beach, just by looking at these statistics, is definitely looking like the "bright spot" as described recently by CAR economist Leslie Appleton-Young.

Condos vs. Houses: How's it Going?

There it is, all in one picture: a condo building and two large homes, side-by-side, each property owner choosing where to live for individual reasons. And among those reasons would most certainly be affordability, but then even if a condo buyer could include the market value of either of the two houses in his price consideration, would he or she, looking down from a condo window, still want to buy the house with the large lot, square footage, maintenance, and property taxes? (The former owner of the house on the right once told me that he did make such a choice will standing in an upper floor condo next door.) These particular properties happen to be at two extremes of size and value (the condos are in the $500,000 range and the houses are double and triple that), but many people will ultimately prefer a house over a condo if they can also choose other adjustments in their criteria.

Nationally, condo inventories are higher than houses, but according to the National Association of Realtors, "the condo market has actually outperformed the single family market recently. In February, condo sales were up 30.3 percent YOY in comparison to 4.3 percent for single family homes. Starting in July of 2009 condo sales have been running at rates higher than the total for either 2008 or 2009."

In Long Beach, the months supply of inventory ending in February 2010 for single family homes is 3 months (down 44% from last year: 1045 vs. 1290 in 2/09), while the months supply of inventory for condos and lofts is 3.75 months (down 46% from last year: 449 condos on the market vs. 592 in 2/09).

Long Beach condos in escrow were up by 42% from 2/09; the number of houses in escrow were up by 30% from 2/09. The median sold price for houses in Long Beach, however, has increased from $310,000 to $350,000, while the median price for condos has decreased from $237,000 to $203,000. (These trends may vary somewhat by specific areas.) Days on market has decreased for both, but overall condos are spending less time than houses on the market.

Historically, in the local market, condos are the first time buyer's most likely choice due to price, and yet because of the distressed market many of those borrowers are having trouble, and condos are the likely choice of many investors and all cash buyers as prices make them more and more attractive.

Although March's figures are not available yet, more inventory in both categories has been coming on the market locally, and the California tax credit as well as what's left of the federal tax credit are helping to spur more action.

Stay tuned.

Is This the Shift in the Down Cycle?

After three years of shrinking equity and, at the same time, the expansion of the number of homeowners underwater in home value, the Federal Reserve economists, who conduct "massive research" into mortgage balances and home value changes, have some better news. According to their "flow of funds" survey, "homeowners' net equity grew by nearly $1 trillion" from 1st through 3rd quarter of 2009, and in the 3rd quarter of 2009, net equity increased by $418 billion. The down cycle could be shifting, per this article in the Washington Post (see link).

According to Zillow, the percentage of homeowners with negative equity is on the decline in many housing markets including Los Angeles. Riverside, heavily impacted by foreclosures, also saw improvement.

The median Southern California price for houses and condos in January, per Dataquick, was $271,500, up 8.6% from one year earlier, and buyers who paid all cash accounted for almost 29% of January sales, the highest such figure since 1988. FHA loans accounted for almost 37% of all home purchases. Loans over $417,000 accounted for only 14% of all home loans in January.

In Long Beach, probably thanks to the first time buyer tax credit (which expires in April), and to growing recognition that current prices are the best real estate opportunity in years, properties in escrow (up 36%) and median sales price (up 6%) have both risen overall in the period since one year ago.